Pondering the Poop

The poop is that if Hillary doesn't win both Texas and Ohio --certainly at least one-- she's dead and Barack will be the nominee because he will be the people's choice. This is the poop. It's poop. The nearly 50% who will have voted for Hillary are not going to consider Barack the people's choice and they're not going to quit and Hillary isn't going to quite. Barack, to knock Hillary out of the race, has to beat her three to one. That would illustrate Hillary has been discredited. That's not going to happen. It's going to the convention and it will be decided by the superdelegates.

The probably nominee is Hillary. This is a turn-about from my opinion of just a week ago when I thought she was dead. I have to revisit my feelings of that time.

We've all been caught up in the "inevitability" story. Hillary the inevitable, Hillary the inevitable, we in effect have heard that for years now. So when it turns out she's not inevitable, that she might be defeated, we think in the terms that have conditioned our minds for so long and say that if she's not inevitable, why then she's dead. Those are the only two options, inevitable or dead, that's the way we've come to think.

In fact, she's just in a fight. This has to be the new focus. It's proven now that she's not inevitable, it's proven in fact that she can fall behind, that does not prove at all that she can't fight and can't come back and win.

I fear that I bought into the "momentum" meme after Wisconsin, when for the first time without doubt momentum was a factor and Barack made inroads into her base. "It's all over" I said --as did so many others-- but Texas is two weeks from Wisconsin and that's a long long time for such a light chip as Obama to sail with any force. Texas and Ohio will be a demographics, and not a momentum election, and the demographics --principally union and Latino-- somewhat favor Hillary. She'll probably win. If she wins both Texas and Ohio, for Obama it's going to be like a cork hitting a brick; Obama momentum will be spinning on the pavement. Then we'll see how he does at the convention.

I see all this as possible now while I didn't a week ago. Time is on Hillary's side. I'm convinced that the huge fuel to the Obama fire has zilch to do with anything so fine as hope but was just anti-Hillary hatred; and while that fuel still smolders I think that all that's combustible has already been lit. The people who like Hillary, by whatever poor judgment that may be, like her still, and with the two week calm now before the next fight what is Obama but just a platitudinous podge of smoke. He has to talk now, exchange nasty quips with John, and what-in-the-world has that guy got to say whenever it does comes to matter what he does say? He may be the Ascalon that slew the Dragon Queen (she is dead now you know, or so so many say) but when his mouth has to open and close in something like real debate with a man of a very different stripe what is he but a Kos Kids Kook?

Anyway, it's going to the convention. Barack is a vapor trail, he'll dissipate in the general. Most of the superdelegates will know that, they'll vote Hillary, and blacks will sit out the general. That gives Republicans a chance... except, unfortunately we've got John, who seems in the process of angering as many Republicans as Hillary is going to anger Democrats.

Daily News

Obama continues to go up in the polls, Huck continues to fade in Texas. So good news/bad news. And everywhere else in the world: war, famine, pestilence. But do they like us?

That Barack is doing well is good because nothing can be more wholesome to the American body politic than to get rid of the Clintons. Everything about them is division and dishonesty, baiting Republicans against them so that their base will rise in their defense, and otherwise fantasizing facts to create a world that doesn't exist, and supported in that fantasy by the press because somehow that world is the one they want. Once they're gone a better tone might develop, and possibly some Democrat will emerge who will be willing to judge the world with more care for cause and effect. I don't know that, but the Clintons have been the Democrat ethos for 15 years and with them back in power it certainly won't change. With them out of power... maybe. But everything about those two is fantasy. Even Hillary's makeup is fantasy. She's sixty years old, and tries to look twenty. I don't know why, it simply communicates that she's been packaged: the face embodies the fake of everything that is Clinton.

That Huck is doing not so good is a disappointment, but I guess understandable in that McCain isn't such a bad candidate, is inevitable, and is generally likable enough. I don't myself see that he has any great gifts, excepting for force of character. He does have that; and strength, patriotism, and basic decency is a pretty good base on which to build a presidency.

I do take exception though to his "courteous" campaign. He went out of his way to speak well of Hillary and Barack as "good Americans" after a radio host who had been part of one of his rallies had said some things not quite so positive. If he actually believes those two --I guess I mean mostly Hillary-- is actually such a fine American then his head is up a dark spot. I do fear that he does believe that, and that he thinks the problem is with the people --Republicans-- and not with liberal Democrats. I do fear that he's now so much a creature of Washington that he believes Washington is America, and that the people are merely a pain. This thought is my very strong impulse behind hoping Huck will do very well.

Even as a campaign tactic I can see no purpose in going so obviously out of the way to assert "civility". Part of what a campaign should do is communicate something of the force of feeling that is felt by the base. I see some honesty in that, and the utility of honesty. But to be content with such sterile, intellectualized statements such as: We have deep philosophical differences, is to cast doubt that those deep differences exist at all. Deep differences should excite anger. I would like to see him dislike Hillary at least as much as he disliked Romney.

Unfortunately, we are stuck with McCain. I do fear that he's of the imperial clique of the American elite, and understands ordinary Americans about as well as Louie the Fourteenth understood peasants.

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Something of McCain's response to Bill Cunningham's remarks:

“It’s my understanding that before I came in here a person who was on the program before I spoke made some disparaging remarks about my two colleagues in the Senate, Senator Obama and Senator Clinton,” he said. “I have repeatedly stated my respect for Senator Obama and Senator Clinton, that I will treat them with respect. I will call them ‘Senator.’ We will have a respectful debate, as I have said on hundreds of occasions. I regret any comments that may have been made about these two individuals who are honorable Americans.”

Responding to questions from reporters, Mr. McCain said he did not hear what Mr. Cunningham said, saying that when he arrived, Mr. Portman was on stage.

“Whatever suggestion that was made that was any way disparaging to the integrity, character, honesty of either Senator Obama or Senator Clinton was wrong,” he said, “I condemn it, and if I have any responsibility, I will take the responsibility, and I apologize for it.”

He called Mr. Obama a “man of integrity” and said he was someone he had come to know “pretty well and I admire.”

He also said that it was not appropriate to invoke Mr. Obama’s middle name in the course of the campaign.

“I absolutely repudiate such comments,” he said. “It will never happen again.”

To which Cunnigham replied that he was peeved with McCain:

Mr. Cunningham said the media often say “nasty, negative things”about President Bush and Vice President Cheney, and that The Times had “smeared” John McCain on its front page.

Treat all the politicians the same. We’re not dealing with the messiah here. Obama cannot heal the sick and make the blind see. He’s a hack Democratic politician from Chicago, that’s all he is. Let’s treat him like every other hack Democratic or Republican politician.

Then he continued:

I’m angry at McCain. Why would John McCain repudiate me? I’ve been able to unite McCain and Obama against me. I might become a supporter of Ralph Nader.

No, Bill, in some ways McCain does live within a dark vista, but you can't support Nader. That's taking justified indignation a bit too far.

Obamaism Isn't

That is, isn't an ism. An ism needs a superstructure. Somebody has to write a tome with postulates and world-historical-profound conclusions, and there has to be a "program", and "historical context", and then, "a way forward" --makes no difference if it makes any sense or not, but for there to be an ism there has to be a text, something the believer can study and memorize and recite --otherwise all you've got is mania. If you can recite you can always be superior to those who haven't studied the master, but if there's nothing to recite you've only got emotion, and emotion is up-and-down and in a down moment not much protection against those who scoff, so the emotion leaves. A mania leaves, only an ism is forever. Poor Barack is only a mania.

So Barack will fade and bomb, but hopefully not until Dracula is dead.

I also think Obamamania is an accident. I think his intent was just to make an apperance, that things took off was a surprize, that's why there will be nothing more in the playbook down the line. Just "hope & change", but once Hillary's gone every bit of change he stands for that means anything will have been achieved and only about 10% of Democrats will still find him exciting and the rest will simply have to make do with what they've got.

It's hard to imagine a candidate who will mean less three months from now. The people who will hurt him the most are the people who now support Hillary. They'll say: You're our candidate now, be specific; and since he will be their candidate then he will have to be specific, and then he will no longer be exciting.

Just hang in there, Barack, through the convention. We need you.

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4:15AM

An Empty Suit Can Wear Any Costume

Barack is upset that a photo is being circulated of him wearing traditional Somali attire:

"Everybody knows that whether it's me or Senator Clinton, or Bill Clinton, that when you travel to other countries they ask you to try on traditional garb that you have been given as a gift," he told WAOI, "The notion that the Clinton campaign would be trying to circulate this as a negative on the same day that Senator Clinton was giving a speech about how we repair our relationships around the world is sad. We are going to try to stay focused on what will make a difference in our foreign policy, including bringing the war in Iraq to an honorable end. "

He noted that he believes Americans are saddened when they see "these kind of politics."

And so on, and a great deal of offense taken by many in the blogosphere at this sort of "dirty politics".

A couple of things come to mind: The guy has zero sense of humor. He's wearing a rag and a diaper; that's funny. Secondly, it's extraordinary that a rag and a diaper can suggest to the average American that he's Muslim. I'm sure in fact that he's a very ordinary liberal Democrat, as firmly patriotic and deeply Christian as Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid or Dick Durban. But what's marvelous is that he's such an absolutely vacant vacuous entity... that nobody really knows. There's so little substance there that any suggestion of substance of any kind is as good as any other, and as convincing.

This guy is the very definition of absolutely nothing at all. I wonder if there's any possibility that "Barack" could become synonymous with "dumb blond"? That would be rather "unifying".

And of course, as a political tactic it falls under what's called "The Dumb Hat Rule"; you wear a dumb hat and your opponent can fairly take advantage of it. It was established forever as a traditional part of American politics when Michael Dukakis wore a tank commander's helmet; on him, with his goofy grin, he looked as mighty and as military as Mickey Mouse. Undoubtedly cost him twenty points in the general.

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Correction:
I've looked at a full photo and Barack is not wearing a diaper; he's wearing some sort of flouncy dress made out of diaper material. My mistake.

Minor Muse Moment

Haven't read, have to make a post, will just muse.

There really isn't much that's interesting now in terms of the horse race. The only matter of consequence left that I care about is whether or not Huckabee will be able to establish himself as a force the Republican upchucks have to consider. Now that the nomination has been decided, if he still does well then he's not Harold Stassen, he's the leader of a significant voting block that insists it must be recognized. Nothing could be more wholesome for the Republican party --for the whole nation-- than to have a unified Christian conservative political movement --well led-- that can't be bought by a pander but has to be recognized as a force.

Huck is the man to do it because he can speak in the secular voice at the same time as there's no doubt he's a Christian. A nation can't be strong without a commitment to a faith --witness the entirety of Europe, so pleased in its contempt of faith but utterly dead as a culture; unable to protect itself even from it's lowest socioeconomic ragtag immigrant minority; a minority effortlessly contemptuous of the idea that there is strength in secularism, demanding Sharia, and easily proving themselves strong simply by being annoyed. --Liberated Europeans have difficulty with that annoyance, and find it annoying, because after all haven't they freed them selves from the centuries old constraining judgments of an angry God? That takes great intellect, you know, and courage. Intellect and courage, shouldn't that be achievement enough? How about some praise? They certainly do know its exhilaration, so very superior. Above constraint now, unanchored, they soar; unbound, they fly; within the wind they fly; within the wind they are of the wind... a wisp of wind. --There is no strength for any man except in faith. There are no exceptions. That is, if the enemy is of an alien culture and simply doesn't recognize sophistication when they see it.

Such ideas of course are not expressible in America; by much of America they're held in contempt, to make such statements is to lecture. No one listens to a lecture they don't like. But that's the beauty of a political movement. You don't have to lecture, you just say: "We got votes; what do we get?"

Such a wholesome dream... But this might be a good time for it to happen. The nominee --known-- is not a bad fellow. Any vote against him is really not a vote for another guy but a vote for a message. A mixed message to be sure, but undeniably a message. If Huck does well even with the nominee known it should be that even the best-of-us will not be so dense as to not recognize there is some dissatisfaction.

I hope this happens. The dynamics are in place --gently, there is no vitriol-- the whole question is just the matter of numbers: how many out there actually want the same kind of voice I want? I don't know. It's all numbers, it's all votes. That's democracy for you.

Note: This is exactly the argument Huck makes when he says if you want me to continue you have to vote for me. So simple, so powerful. He also holds out hope for a brokered convention. This is for those who want miracles. It could happen... as yet it's not impossible. It's a kind of pep talk, a pick-me-up. That's okay. It's possible there is no such thing as a powerful motivation that isn't seasoned just a bit with fantasy.

--I should at some point more deeply consider the pathology of Obamaisn. It seems sort of the sixties all over again, only instead of a Maharishi we've got a half-white guy who's a liberal who's called black. --I'll note the flower children never elected a president.

Decompress'n Down

I think my entries for a bit will just be muse. The race seems now so finally finished that it just isn't interesting anymore.

It appears McCain effectively dealt with the "undue influence/sex scandal" before I even got around to reading about it. The immensely satisfying thing about that is that it argues he has political skills; he counters an attack, not simply with a press conference, but with a coordinated, many pronged counter utilizing many many surrogates. That he has that skill bodes well for a McCain presidency.

Of course there is yet Huck, my favorite guy. I fear the vine has withered. It's hard for his supporters to send a message vote when it's getting to the point where the message they might want to send is that they're getting to really like that guy McCain. I would still vote Huck, but I am getting to like that guy McCain. I do think the attack by the NYT, so weak, and the response, so massive and final, was just a godsend to his campaign.

I could note that right at the outset of the scandal --when no one then knew how it would turn out-- Huckabee was asked about it and said: "You know I have campaigned now on the same stage and platform withJohn McCain for 14 months, I only know him to be a man of integrity.Today he denied that any of that was true, I take him at his word. I have no further comment other than that for me to get into it is completely immaterial. Again I only know him what I know him to be and that's a good and decent and honorable man." And that's all he would say. Romney's aides were asked about the matter and said: Why couldn't this have happened two months ago?

...I imagine there are other world issues besides American primaries... Yes, I am sure there are.

One thing on last night's non-event debate between Hillary and Barack. It was said this was her last chance to make a difference, she should have done something to shake things up. I don't know if you can do anything to shake up mass delusion. As I understand she was her normal wonky self, that's who she is, and that may be her strongest card. No matter what she says Obama isn't going to lose his supporters as long as they're on their endomorpine high. She simply has to wait for the fit to pass, knowing it can't last... The problem here is the matter of time --she's got less than two weeks-- but even if the fit does pass and he's seen as just another politician, still there's this problem, he's not Hillary, and there are just a lot of people who just do not like Hillary. --I understand she still has a pretty good lead in Ohio.

--------------------
2:40AM

I see Gov Perry of Texas has had some harsh words for Huck:

Perry [said], "We had a mercy rule in six man football in Pan Creek, where I came from, and when you're behind by 45 points at the half, you just go ahead and salute the other side and say well done, and walkaway, before anybody gets hurt... I'd suggest to Mike it's time for the mercy rule to go into effect."

Huckabee has been campaigning hard in Perry's state and no symbolism was lost yesterday when Huckabee spoke in front of the Alamo in San Antonio, site of the "last stand" in the battle for Texas independence. That symbolism did not go unnoticed by Gov. Perry either, "I think Mike's already had his last stand. I think it's over for the republican nomination. And I respect Mike but it's time for us as a party to get behind Sen. McCain."

My personal feeling is this is probably the attack of a political idiot. He's saying exactly: The message doesn't matter, only the party. And that's the opposite of what Huck is saying, at least for this point in the race. Perry creates ill-will, and galvanizes Huck's supporters. It is true that the real danger Huck faces is embarrassment. If he does badly, he's badly embarrassed, and that could happen; but if he doesn't do badly he's giving an important voice to the public, and Perry ought to just suck it up and shut up.

The Fit Has Fled

I no longer feel any interest in following the primaries, it has all been determined.

Hillary is dead. A party needs a leader. She had been awarded that mantle of "leadership" simply because she had been the most visible figure who had successfully fought Republicans. But now there has been discovered a new figure whom it is believed can more effectively contest that battle and so that figure now has become leader. And there is in fact no other question that matters; "Who can best fight Republicans?" is absolutely the only question that resides within the psyche of the Democrat, whether deeply buried and obscured by "issues", or right on the surface as "Who can win in November?" But that is the battle that has been fought between Hillary and Obama and Hillary lost. This is a judgment of faith and it can't change until there's been failure and that can't happen until it's over. Hillary's toast.

The question of how that judgment is made --Who can most effectively fight Republicans?-- is a different matter to answer and not in the least difficult because it's not accepted by many that this is in fact the only question asked. For my purposes just now I simply assert it is so.

So what is it that makes a Republican, this creature that must be defeated?

--First, a Republican is a member of the opposition, and therefore remarkably evil. If a man opposes goodness, how can he not be evil?

--Secondly, Republicans are the ones who have made the world the way it is, and that is, remarkably bad. It's Republicans who start wars and kill people. It's Republicans who destroy the economy and imperil the lives of the children. It's Republicans who torture people and give tax breaks to the rich and destroy the planet and create loneliness and failure and the rage that is within the heart of every Democrat. The world is a bad place and the world is Republican.

--But what if the world were Democrat? Why then the lion would lie down with the lamb, goodness would reign, and love and peace and admiration would shower down upon us and there would be nothing of the cold or the bitter or the sharp and nothing resistant would remain but there would be only adoration and that amongst us and forever, amen. For this is the fruit of goodness.

--And who is there among us who is the goodness candidate? For Heaven's sake, if you must ask, get thee behind me, Satan.

--So Barack will lead us not only to the nomination but to the promised land. --Pretty heady stuff, and the pill that is Hill thinks she can compete against that? Hill struggles yet against Elysium. Hill is Satan, and as I've mentioned once already, Hill is toast.

As for the Republicans? Well, they live in a different world and that world happens to be the real world, and they happen to have as a standard bearer a man who certainly isn't going to suggest posies and springtime. His very features are an argument. You can chose one world or you can chose the other but there can be no doubt about which world you are choosing.

So how will the election turn out? It seems it will depend on the ratio of the sane to the insane.

Taking Stock

What a quite pleasing political season it's been so far these last two months, and I foresaw none of it. Romney, the great fraud, has been defeated. Hillary, the vast witch, is being defeated, probably has been defeated for good --and by her own party-- which means she will disappear as a memory and not linger as a martyr; and the Huck has arisen to lead us to Righteousness and Good Humor; talk radio has been revealed as a leprosy on the body politic; and McCain is a pretty good guy, actually showing more stature now than I've seen from him before. There may be something in him that's very fine, we'll have to see.

So this is an immense amount to have happened in just two months, so much more than I'd expected. My whole hope for this political season was only that Romney could be forstalled from buying the first two states and thus catapulting himself to the nomination. So much more good has happened than just that.

I haven't written much about the Democrats because they're very boring people. The whole dynamism is that the whole party for fifteen years has glommed around slime-ball one and slime-ball two, and now finally have the good fortune of deliverance through the agency of the high-minded TelePrompTer rhetoric of a man who, whatever else he might be, is definitely not slime.

So we have John and they have Obama. Good for them, good for us. The contest has contrast, that at least. And whatever else may happen, the American Republic now has a fresher scent for no longer having the Clintons.

Of the coming battle I say: "Bring it on."

Housekeeping:

--All those of stature who pushed The Romney still must be shamed, scourged, and beaten with sticks. I'm not sure just how that's going to be done but it's a good thing to do. --Perhaps they might just apologize for being fools, frauds, and manipulators.

--And the Huck must be allowed to run his course. It feels good to vote for a good man. It's a statement. If those who are his supporters are allowed to make that statement they're going to feel a whole lot better November about supporting the nominee.

--And the nominee has to yet continue to show stature and allow that course to be run, and appreciate that the electorate is expressing a voice that a wholesome nation would consider.

So, two really good months. But history does not stop. There will be kerfluffules yet, and I probably can't predict any better what they might be than I predicted the past.

Onward.

Wisconsin Knockout?

(CNN) ElectionCenter 2008

McCain wants knockout

McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, is looking for big wins in the Wisconsin and Washington state primaries to demonstrate he is starting to unify the Republican party behind his nomination, including conservatives upset by his positions on immigration, campaign finance and other issues....

McCain also hopes he can score big enough wins to convince Mike Huckabee, the last remaining top-tier Republican candidate challenging McCain, to drop out of the race. The former Arkansas governor has vowed to stay in the race until McCain has enough delegates to win the nomination, saying voters deserve a choice.

"I'd like to think we've got enough support in Wisconsin, that we can actually win here, and it would be a very big thing for us," Huckabee said during a campaign stop in Hudson, Wisconsin, Monday. "But it would also be a good thing for Wisconsin for me to win, because it would show that the party was wrong to say this is over, and it would also be wrong to end the game before people in places like Wisconsin had a chance to vote.

We'll see how it goes. Later tonight I'll do my own "live blog", simply because it's an interesting way to follow the returns. My personal assessment is that there is a very large block of voters out there yet not at all ready to coalesce around McCain. But I don't know the demographics, I just don't know how many of the disgruntled there are in Wisconsin.

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6:50PM
As of 5:00PM (real time) Bill Bradlely has the simple statement based on early exit polls: 'John McCain will have a sizable win. --No details.

99.9% of coverage is Obama v Clinton. Geraghty: Possibly 60 - 40 Obama.

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7:25
From RCP:

8:00PM - Just caught some exit polling data from Fox:...
..................
*59-35: Huckabee is winning evangelicals.
* No numbers, but Huckabee is also winning conservatives.
* 54-31: Huckabee is winning "value voters".
* 53-47: McCain is winning Republicans, who make up 70% of all GOP voters. - BLAKE DVORAK

The big number here of course is McCain winning Republicans by 6%, in that all the others are subsumed as Republicans. McCain will also get most independents, the other thirty percent. So from these numbers it looks like a large win for McCain. But these are exit numbers, and early.
It is pleasing that evangelicals are finally coalecsing around Huckabee.

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7:56
How soon will they call the winner?

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8:01
CNN has already called for McCain, no numbers.

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9:10
55 - 37 McCain, with 21% reporting. That's a very solid win. Huck did win the evangelicals 54 - 37% (simply to state it one more time), but there does seem to be a rough equivalency otherwise between him and McCain on what I would generally consider conservative issues. I guess he's close enough for nearly half the conservative electorate.

Over-all a disappointment to my hopes, though not so much to my expectations. I'm still assuming the final count will be a little closer --the rural areas reporting a little later.
--Have no idea how Washington will turn out.

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10:28
This from Rich Lowry:

What Does It Say?
That running against the mathematically eliminated also-ran, Mike Huckabee,John McCain is getting about 55%? And that running against the once-fearsomeDemocratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama is getting about 55%?

Should Hillary get out of the race?

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10:44
This is very interesting, I don't know quite what to make of it. In Washington, 40% of the vote counted, McCain has 48%, Huckabee 21%, Paul 8%, and Romney, not in the race, 21%. This decidedly is a message vote. I doubt anybody expected that. Can't anybody get Romney to drop out! Get Paul to drop out! Doesn't everyone understand that everyone wants McCain and only McCain, and that Huckabee staying in just to "offer an alternative" is just offensive to everybody?

"Shock the World"

Pretty much no news on Huck anywhere. Only a guy writing for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Dave Umhoefer, seems to have followed him at all. The same article that included the statement by Huck that it would "shock the world" if he should happen to win also included this:

He has not predicted victory here but has drawn an enthusiastic conservative following that he thinks the Republican Party ignores at its own peril....

A "growing chorus" of the GOP establishment and Washington-based officials want him to quit the race, he acknowledged. And former President George H.W. Bush is set to endorse McCain today in Houston. "I think it's going to backfire," Huckabee said of attempts to cut the primary competition short before one candidate amasses enough delegates to win.

I certainly agree with his sentiment. I have as little faith that the Republican heiarchy is democratic as I have that the Democrat leadership actually cares about expressing the will of the people. In each case they're simply of the leadership class that happens to be saddled with something called "the democratic process" and they have to game it to get more votes than the other guy so that they can be in power to do whatever they chose. I do see a separation of the leadership from the people that I've never sensed quite so powerfully before. Always leadership will be separate, but never before have I felt so strongly that leadership is contemptuous of its constituents. McCain has the nomination in his pocket, social conservatives can suck eggs. This is what I see anyway. That's why Huckabee is a hero. He's insisting that because he stands for a particular political view not so clearly held by McCain, it's necessary that the people have an opportunity to express their support for that view. If only McCain remained in the race a vote for him would seem to be a support for his values and program. In fact it would be a vote for him in preference to either Obama or Hillary, but it emphatically would not be an endorsement of all he stands for. With Huck in we have another shade, a "message", and that's a message I want to see sent. --And part of that message to the party elders is this: Screw you, two can play this game.

I like this poll:

Wisconsin
American Research Group, Inc.
Likely Republican Primary Voters

------Feb 6-7 --Feb 15-16
Huckabee -4% ------42%
McCain --51% ------46%
Paul ------7% --------4%
Romney -29% -------ni

It's the most favorable poll for Huck that I've been able to find. It also shows him trailing McCain 3% among Republicans, 8% among independents, but with twice as many Republicans than Independents likely to vote in the Republican primary. And it suggests virtually all Romney supporters switched to Huck and not McCain. That fits with what I would presume: Romney supporters all listen to talk radio, they've been programed to hate McCain, they probably actually believe Romney was a conservative, and so they've got no option but Huck.

I don't know that I place much faith in this poll, but I'll take good numbers where I find them, and it certainly does argue that the movement is in the right direction and that it's been extraordinarily rapid.
(Note: the link has changed, and the newest poll shows McCain 51%, Huck 43%)

In his last appearance in Applelton Wisconsin before heading to Little Rock to watch the returns there was this:

"If Wisconsin comes forward in good numbers for me, it changes the dynamics of the race," Huckabee said at a local bar and ballroom before addressing about 250 supporters.

Huck is absolutely right, but he was speaking at a bar and ballroom to about 250 people. We'll see.

Blindsided?

Haven't read much. Huck's been in the Cayman's, should have been back to Wisconsin Sunday evening for a function. He's certainly not making news, no mentions of him except the mildly derisive ones referencing his being a long ways away in the sunny tropics. The "news" is McCain "squaring off" with Obama over his "flip-flop" on pledging to accept public financing, now turning down public financing because he can raise more money on the Internet. Lots a lots a print over the struggle among the Democrats over what to expect from the super delegates, should they follow their own judgment, or the expressed preference of the voter. Similarly, argument over the seating --or not-- of the Florida and Michigan delegates. And Bill having a fury. That's the news. Nothing on Huck.

I think Huck has positioned himself in Wisconsin as well as possible. There is no anger towards him as being divisive (how can a man in the Cayman's be divisive) so no one is going to vote against him in anger at breaking party unity. McCain is confident of a Wisconsin win, and so I believe has made only one visit. He's so confident of his nomination that he's gone into general election mode, ignoring the primaries, focusing on Obama as his probable November opponent.

And the grass roots are probably working like bees.

This anyway is my speculation. There are just a lot of people who still want to send a message, and there's just no one telling them that they shouldn't. A very great many of these people are going to quietly go vote Huck.

--People who are a bit stunned by Romney throwing in the towel and endorsing McCain may vote Huck. I don't know how many, most may stay home, very few will follow Romney's lead and vote McCain, but many may be angered and vote Huck because they do know he is a conservative and this time, at least as a message, they'll know they won't be wasting their vote on a fake.

--And a number of those who simply hate McCain may now decide not to expend their vote on Obama/Hillary --Obama's going to win anyway-- but may instead vote against McCain by voting for Huck. Not because they like him, but because it's the only effective way left yet to embarrass McCain --and it's not really a vote for Huck anyway since he sure isn't going to get the nomination.

So these things are all in play and they all favor Huck. How many people lukewarm towards McCain will vote for him just to be with a winner and to express party unity I don't know. I do suppose quite a few will not bother to vote because it's all been decided already anyhow.

These are very similar to the forces that were in play in Virginia where Huck had a run and made McCain sweat a bit (and in Wisconsin McCain won't have a military demographic to pull him through). It's true in Virginia the Huck surge fell short, but there is this difference in Wisconsin: In Wisconsin it's not winner take all, it's proportional, so close counts.

I expect Huck will have a good showing, and again, will "surprise". The principle reason I think he will surprise is because the party establishment, and the press for that matter, really doesn't recognize the force of the social conservative's feelings, and so don't even see these people on their radar. But I think they're there, and I see the possibility they might strike in numbers with a wallop. I'm certainly hoping that anyway.

Note: I don't believe I've ever heard Huckabee promise "change". He must be the only candidate in either party who's an insider and thinks things are just fine the way they are. I didn't know that.

It's Deju Goliath All Over Again

I sure have come to like that Huck guy. I don't know how long he's going to stay in but I sure do appreciate seeing him put up the good fight.

Mr. Mitt has now joined forces with Mr. MaC. The Mitt gave the MaC his 282 delegates. How gracious of him... to give what was not his. He "released" his delegates. While there's debate as to what that means, it's possible he's released all 282 to vote for Huck if they want to.

The caucus delegates, about 176 of them, haven't even been named yet. The "pledged" delegates --those won in primaries, about 106 --are now free, at least in Massachusetts and Michigan, about 45-- to vote however they want, and that's probably true for the remaining states as well. If the Mitt had been patient he would have controlled all 282 at the convention, now he'll control 61 at most, and probably none. For fifty millions of his own dollars he sure didn't get much.

Of course, he is on the band wagon now, and since McCain is going to be the nominee I suppose it makes sense to hop on while you can at least pretend you've made a contribution. You can pretend, even if in fact you've potentially given Huck all or most of the delegates that cost you so very much.

Let's compute the best case scenario for Huckabee. He's got 234. Add 286, that's 520. Add Louisiana and Washington (best case! I don't believe any have been assigned) that's 38 more. Total: 558 to John's 724. It's starting to look like a race.

Now, I don't expect that going to happen and I'm not uncomfortable with McCain as the nominee, but this is politics, who knows what's down the pike? Mitt has in stunning stupidity given up control of 282 delegates, locked and put away. They're free now, who knows what might come up?

It should be noted that McCain does not have momentum, he has support. More people will vote for him than will vote for Huck. That's a good thing. It's good to have a probable nominee who can draw from independents and moderates. But I note for the next many contests those numbers are going to go down. McCain v Huck excites nobody, but Obama v Godzilla excites everybody. Anybody who can is going to throw their two bits into that contest, and John is going to lose a lot of bits he's come to depend on.

There's no way to know the final numbers, but the specifics help Huck. --And there's this as well: If McCain can't put Huck away in short order, a lot of people are going to start taking a second look. Everybody likes a scrappy underdog, especially such a pleasant one.

Wisconsin is big. Huck was really hurt in the Potomac states. A win coming off of a triple loss would be nice, but what he does have to do is at least beat expectations. That might not be too hard, since the coronation is now presumed.

The Gift That Gives

Ha! I just hear that Romney, the true conservative, the man competing with Huck for the social conservative ("Why doesn't Huck get out anyway?") has just now endorsed John McCain, the man most hated by talk radio, because he is not "a conservative", and will "destroy the party as we know it."

A man of principle, that Mitt, with the political brain of a spider. 'Course that is the mantra now, Party Unity!

I didn't hear that he officially released his delegates. Are they free now to vote as they want? Or is this just more words? Does he still control the delegates on the first ballot? If they have been released, how many will actually vote for McCain?

I don't know, I will have to read later and get more information. This does strike me as politically inept. The only people who are going to give him points for this are the party uber allas types. There is a time for party unity, but to my mind it's not yet. This merely offends those who think they've been taken for a ride. This strengthens McCain, but to my mind weakens the party. The party isn't unified until Huck has clearly been rejected at the ballot box.

Will have to think about this more later.

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5:55

This is interesting. According to Geraghty, Romney has released his delegates, but of the supposedly 286 in his column, in fact only 28 have been pledged to him, the others, through the complex many layered caucus process, have yet to be determined. All of course, are now free to vote anyway they want.

CNN puts McCain at 827 delegates, and he needs 1,191. If all of them swing to McCain, it would put him at 1,113.

UPDATE: However, some of the caucus states where Romney has won or finished well, the delegates have yet to be named. (It's one of those things where the county delegates are settled on caucus day, but they go to the county convention, who go to the state convention, where the delegates to the national convention.) By one count from a campaign source, only 28 delegates are named and could change today.

Geraghty did say that Romney's endorsement was a "classy act". But he's a little off script, he forgot to say: "And he's really cute, too."

Meanwhile Huck is having a live telephone interview with Fox and has said: "This is the 'me too' party, well, I'm the 'not me too' candidate'." (I paraphrase a little). I sure am coming to like that guy.

Reacting to Romney's endorsement of McCain, [Huckabee] says, "There is a 'me too' crowd going on right now, and I happen to be the leader of the 'not me too' crowd.

I may get beat, but I'm not going to quit. I'm not a quitter." Asked for what constitutes his best shot, Huckabee raises whether either he or McCain gets to 1,191.

"When Republicans don't want to have elections anymore, let's let them make the decision in a back room, a couple of guys around a table smoking cigars. I say, let's give the people a choice. If I walk off the stage, the people of Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, they're being told 'thank you, we've already made the decision without you'.

If somebody gets to 1,191, I have to accept the verdict... The only people who are asking me to quit are the people who never supported me in the first place. To leave now would mean I'm listening to the people who never supported me, and ignoring the people who did support me."

But the upshot of all this is that Romney has given his personal endorsement, but has in fact not given one delegate to McCain. Technically, it's possible, he's given all 286 delegates to Huck.

This is fun. 'Course, it all depends on how many votes Huck gets. I don't have a problem with McCain as the eventual nominee. I do have a problem with coronation.

-------------------
8:55PM

I do find Romney's endorsement interesting, I simply do not understand the reasoning.

It is important that the party unite around McCain, but there is a top down and a bottom up way of doing that. If anything should have penetrated the consciousness of the political class this season it's that the top down approach hasn't worked well.

Romney was the top down elite choice. He was a massive failure. Take away daddy, Mormons, Massachusetts, and money, and he wouldn't have ten delegates. But they're still trying to do the same thing, top down: Unite around McCain because that's what Mitt wants and that's what we want.

How dumb anyway is this political class that is Republican?

Here's a really new idea: How about let the voters decide? I know that's an odd concept and foreign and revolutionary and not "gracious", but it is democracy. How about seeing how Huck does at the polls? If the voters don't like him he won't get their votes. If that happens there will be party unity, and it will be a real unity that will endure through November, because the expressed will of the people. If they do vote for him...? Well then I would say there are those in the party who are going to have to make some accommodations.

Let a Hundred Daggers Draw

Huckabee is going to face two challenges today: He will be ignored, and when not ignored, mocked: "When are you going to get out?" Not sure how he's going to handle that. But he's good humored. You can't too effectively mock someone who stays in a good mood and is witty. Developing...

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2:45AM, Wednesday

Developed. No Daggers, no Huck. The second explains the first. Huck has made no news nowhere. Apparently he hasn't tried. Apparently he sees wisdom in staying out of the public eye for awhile.

Last night I noted I could find no concession speech carried by any news outlet. But Byron York reports this:

"The nomination is not secured until somebody has 1,191 delegates,” Mike Huckabee said last night in Little Rock after losing primary battles to John McCain in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C. “That has not yet happened. . . and if there are these calls to say, ‘Let’s just call it off,’ that’s a disservice to the people in Texas and Ohio and Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Nebraska and other states and territories who have yet to have the opportunity to vote. So we march on.”

So, his standard view on this matter, delivered Tuesday evening, but no coverage?

I'm totally uncertain about this but I can't see that he was just ignored. This is a call to battle. It would have been good for at least one story. But it wasn't carried. It suggests the media wasn't there, that they weren't invited. I don't know. I don't know where York got his information. Were they there? Were they not? Who was there?

I'm speculating --total speculation-- that there was no national media invited and that it's part of an intentional policy to just lay low until the heat's off. No coverage, and McCain has his night in the limelight. That's good for McCain, it's good for the party. No coverage, and it's good for Huck as well. He avoids getting the MaC angry, and he avoids getting blasted. There would be only one question anyway: "How'd you blow Potomac so badly and when are you going to get out?"

Huck needs media, but that might not be the kind of media he wants. It could be that his entire intent for awhile is to disappear. The same York article, for example, says that for most of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday he'll be in the Cayman Islands giving a speech. Tuesday is the next primary, Wisconsin, but you're hardly running hard if you're spending most of the week on a beach.

So if he does happen to do well in Wisconsin, which will shakeup McCain's coronation a bit, it can't be said that party unity is being made to suffer due to Huck's insufferable, selfish personal ambition. It will be clearly seen that he got votes because a lot in the party want a chance to cast that vote. If it's meaningful to them it's meaningful to democracy. If that's the choice of the people you can't blame Huck, you can only praise the people.

That anyway is what I speculate is his present strategy. If there is a grass roots movement --I believe there is-- the grass roots can do the work themselves. He's on the ballot, he's available to be their voice. They organize, they vote. Huck is the recipient, not the instrument. To criticize Huck in that scenario would be not to criticize Huck but to criticize the people, and the democratic process itself, and that sort of criticism would not do the McCain people any good at all.

Final Fateful Fight Finished

This from Drudge, top of the page:

In the Chesapeake Rout, according to exit polls in Maryland, Obama won:
Latino Voters By Six Points: 53-47
All Religions (Including Catholics)
All Age Groups (Including Seniors)
All Regions
All Education Levels
And Women by TWENTY ONE POINTS...

Hill fought, failed, and is out. My opinion. There's this comment from RCP Election Thread:

11:09PM - The RCP delegate count on the Dem side is: Obama 1231, Clinton 1196.... if Obama carries Wisconsin next week, the pressure on Clinton to end it will grow tremendously. She's trying to hang on until March 4, when Texas and Ohio vote, but almost no one in the party wants this thing to go to the convention. If Clinton can keep it close, using her superdelegates to take the nomination might be tolerable. But if it isn't close, Clinton risks being seen as stealing the nomination, which would tear the party apart. - BLAKE DVORAK

First time I've heard anyone call for Clinton to drop out. Warms my cockles.

-----------------
And it may be time for my guy Mike to drop out. It's true that if he drops out social conservatives lose a voice, but a nine point loss in his closest state just doesn't cut it. What impresses me exceptionally is this: I've looked everywhere for his concession speech and I can't find it! Has the media already so far forgotten him that they don't even note his speech? I'm not sure. Maybe he hasn't given one. Maybe he's planning a special speech tomorrow. But the point is, if Huck can't get media he doesn't have a campaign. If he's not noticed anymore he might as well be Ducan Hunter.

I note the CBS current delegate count:

MCCAIN 790
HUCKABEE 199
ROMNEY 166
PAUL 10
THOMPSON 3

These counts have a way of morphing all over the place, but by this count he is already the second most important man in the race. And he will get more delegates from Washington and Louisiana when they're finally apportioned, a lot. And he does do very well in caucus states, and there are many yet upcoming. Possibly he could just suspend his campaign --he's still on the ballot-- and his supporters could continue the good fight. If there's a message they don't need a candidate, they only need a voice, and if they can continue to get delegates for Mike he still is their voice.

It seems a possibility. In this way the party could begin to coalesce around one candidate --McCain-- at the same time as a message could be sent. And Huck, as an individual, would not be blamed for and would not be responsible for creating divisions due to simple personal ambition.

If he does stay in, without media attention, there is a possibility for great failure. If Huck is humiliated social conservatives lose their greatest champion.

I'm sure he's aware of all these considerations, and many more. We'll see what he does.

Fateful Final Fight?

Read some news. Big turn out. Can't lose today. I like Mike, I like John. One of 'ems go'na win. And Hill is a dead goose. Good. I can't lose.
------------------
4:50

Ed Morrisey's got guts:

Predictions look easy for today. I'll predict sweeps by both McCain and Obama. For McCain, I'd guess that he wins Virginia by nine, with Huckabee's mini-surge falling a bit short. Maryland will go to McCain by twenty points, meaning McCain will take at least 23 of the state's 37 delegates. He'll take DC's 19 delegates in the winner-take-all contest by at least five points, giving him 105 delegates at night's end to Huckabee's 14, and the gap will increase to almost 600.

Though he has moved the goal posts. Sunday he was predicting a blowout win for McCain in Virginia. I simply don't know, I've only said Virginia wouldn't be a blowout, so I win...? Just to maintain the spirit of the game I'll predict Huck wins Virginia and does surprisingly well in Maryland. Heck, Huck will win DC too.

Actually, nobody knows how it's going to go. The landscape has changed. The big ugly Romney structure is gone and now it's possible to see vistas and a road to somewhere and hope... (not to wax to poetical) but it's an exceptionally different race now than it was just a few days back, with the nominee known but the full message not yet sent. This is a new calculus and the new equilibrium isn't yet established. Todays races will say a great deal about how the rest of the races will go. If Huck does well, the race will go on. If he does poorly (I think he has to win something) perhaps the purpose for his candidacy will disappear. --But it's something that will have to be balanced out as the returns come in. How well do you have to do to be a meaningful message candidate? A win sends a message, but how much message is there in only close?

-----------------
5:38
From Geraghty:

Early exit poll data for tonight...

In Maryland, McCain 57 percent, Huckabee 31 percent.

In Virginia, the second wave of data shows an extremely close race, less than a percentage point between McCain and Huckabee.

Aha!

---------------
6:05

7:00PM - Instant call for Obama in Virginia by FOX, CNN and MSNBC. GOP race too close to call. - TOM BEVAN
6:50PM - Polls in Virginia close in 10 minutes. Virginia should be the most interesting contest on both sides. If Huckabee is going to pull off an upset, this would be the place, and with 63 delegates at stake in a winner take all contest, it would be another big win for him. - TOM BEVAN

It's a win for Huck. If he takes the 63 it's a huge win. But if he's so close, coming from thirty points down just four days ago, it's a win too. Obviously voters want him in.

----------
Saw a statement that 8% who voted in the VA Democrat primary were cross-over Republicans, voting overwhelmingly for Obama. That would be anti-McCain voters not able to vote for Huck but trying to stop Hill.

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6:28
Ha! CNN:

Viginia: Huckabee 56, McCain 37.

Ha! 'Course, that's with only 1% reporting.

6:32: 5%
--Huck 51, McCain 42. Darn. It's getting close. --I note only 3% for Romney. Must all be voting for Obama.

--------------------
6:48

:36PM - ABC's Rick Klein expresses the kind of befuddlement that a lot people probably feel about what's going on in VA:

This is a problematic evening early for McCain. He can't putHuckabee away -- it's sort of astounding that Huck keeps winning. Again,this won't make Huckabee the nominee. But how is this guy still winning?

I'm sure that comment would have the Huckster grinning that big, "aw shucks" grin. - TOM BEVAN

Supposedly he also won Republicans by two points, and independents 43%34%. That's from exit polls. If the exit polls hold Huck won.

------------
CNN: 22% reporting: 47 - 45, Huck. Romney still 3%, Paul 4%.
CNN: 32% reporting: Same.

--------------------
This is interesting:

McCain and Huck in Virginia [Byron York]

In the newly-release exit polls on the too-close-to-call race between JohnMcCain and Mike Huckabee in Virginia, Huckabee is winning big among Republicanvoters who call themselves very conservative, and McCain is winning amongeverybody else. The exit polls show McCain beating Huckabee, 64 percent to30 percent, among the 27 percent of the Republican electorate who describethemselves as moderate. McCain wins, 44 to 40, among people – 33 percentof the GOP electorate – who describe themselves as somewhat conservative. But Huckabee wins really, really big, 70 percent to 21 percent, among thelargest single group – the 34 percent who call themselves very conservative. 02/12 07:39 PM

I've always argued that the selfdiscribed "very conservative" are those who listen to talk radio, and talk radio hate McCain. But they hate Huck too? This will have to be considered.

------------
7:40
Blasted. 55% reporting CNN calls it for McCain, 47% - 45%

------------
Talk radio scored?

Still More McCain and Huck [Byron York]

The Virginia exit pollsters asked Republican voters if they listened to conservative talk radio. Thirty-one percent said they listened frequently; Huckabee won among them, 56 percent to 32 percent. Twenty-nine percent said they listen occasionally; among them, the race was tied, 44 to 44. Twenty-one percent said they rarely listened; McCain won among them, 49 to 42. And 18 percent said they never listened to conservative talk radio, and McCain won among them 53 to 40.

It does look like talk radio did hurt McCain, and a lot who couldn't vote for McCain went for Huck. Hard to believe, since they hate Huck too, although admitedly I haven't listened for a couple of months. Could be other reasons, but these numbers are consistent with that interpretation.

------------
8:10
McCain pulling away. 73% reporting: McCain 49%, Huck 43%

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8:35

So it looks like Huck lost, and it looks too like talk radio might have poisoned the well for McCain. Conservatives who couldn't vote for McCain went for largely Huck --this would be that percentage who thought Romney was a conservative, the rest went Democrat and mostly for Obama. But I don't know if this idea will hold up in the exit polls, supposing those questions were asked.

Note: It was my contention only that Huck would do far better than expected. There's still Maryland, where he might get some delegates. But at the moment I'm a little dispirited.

----------
9:25
McCain ahead by 9%. H'mm, Looks like Ed Morrisey was pulling the strings in this one. Kinda down. Nine points is a solid win given that McCain has such an immense lead in delegates. The intent of the Huckabee campaign isn't to win, but to send a message. But it would be a lot easier if he'd won one of the three, or at least came within two points. Still, Kansas. Three-to-one. If there are states with a large Huck contingent, they deserve a candidate. But there has to be a large Huck contingent.

Ding Dong Dynamism

Things proceed as one would expect.

Survey USA, Virginia
02/07 - 02/08 McCain 57, Huckabee 25, Paul 9, McCain +32.0
02/09 - 02/10 McCain 48, Huckabee 37, Paul ,7 McCain +11.0

So McCain down 9, Huck up 12. Half the polling was done before Huck's Saturday wins, half after:

In the middle of the field period for this survey, Mike Huckabee won the Louisiana primary, won the Kansas caucus, and finished a strong 2nd in the WA state caucus. Any momentum Huckabee accrued from those wins would only partially be reflected in these interviews, half of which were completed before the results of the Saturday wins were known. By contrast, interviews in the SurveyUSA poll released 72 hours ago, on Friday 02/08/08, were conducted during the post-Super-Tuesday media coverage that described McCain for the first-time as the "almost certain" party nominee. These competing, buffeting forces are at work: McCain supporters may feel he has the Republican nomination mathematically "locked," and may not be as motivated to turn-out as they would otherwise. Anti-McCain supporters may be uniquely motivated to vote in protest against McCain, and may turn-out in larger numbers than here forecast.
Couldn't have said it better myself.

There's similar movement in Maryland, though not as great.

SurveyUSA 02/07 - 02/08 360 LV 56 17 10 McCain +39.
SurveyUSA 02/09 - 02/10 368 LV 52 26 10 McCain +26.0

Nationally, in Rasmussen, Huck's best showing, he trails McCain only by 12.

Rasmussen Tracking 02/07 - 02/10 800 LV 46 34 8 -- McCain +12.0

This simply indicates a Republican electorate not yet settled on McCain. And he hasn't done himself any favors with his response to the Washington fiasco:

“It's pretty clear that we won [in Washington],”McCain said. “[Huckabee] certainly has the right to challenge if he chooses to. But I honestly don't know enough about the details except that I know that state parties declare elections when they have sufficient evidence as to who's won and who's lost. That's not unusual in any way.”

He has to be the only one who thinks this call wasn't unusual in any way. He should have said: "In America every vote is counted. I don't know the details but if there are questions about the count they have to be cleared up. That said, I like the results, they must be right, I won." Or something both gracious and humorous, and he could have still said he won. It's not a big deal but the people paying attention will be Huck supporters in Virginia and Maryland... but Virginia and Maryland happen to be important just at the moment --I think part of the reason he's a maverick is he doesn't have the political skills to be a diplomat.

And others make the same arguments I've been making:

Huckabee brushes off calls to bow out

Consultant Rich Galen, who worked for Thompson but now is unaffiliated,said Huckabee "has still got money and he's having a good time. He's not conducting a negative campaign. He could go on to be recognized as the leaderof the conservative wing of the Republican Party."

Greg Mueller, a conservative Republican consultant not associated with acandidate, said Huckabee is helping to burnish his own reputation as perhaps"the next man in line" for Republicans in a future contest "so long as he'samassing delegates."

"With Romney out of the race, Huckabee becamea repository for the anti-McCain vote. I think for conservatives, it doesn'thurt for a while here to make sure Senator McCain and his folks understandthat the fissures that conservatives have with Senator McCain didn't happenovernight, and are not going to be resolved overnight," said Mueller. "Oneof the reasons Huckabee is staying in is to give a voice to conservativesso that we are a very strong presence going into the convention."

Again, couldn't have said it better myself.

The Dynamism Done Come?

Not sure what will happen Tuesday: Maryland, Virginia, D.C. The Saturday poll numbers I saw put Huck behind 39% in Maryland, about 30% in Virginia. D.C. I don't know but it doesn't matter.

These polls reflect McCain's sweep of California --not known until Wednesday morning-- and Mitt's surprise withdrawal Thursday. They don't reflect Huck's over-all good showing Saturday, and his absolute devastation of McCain in Kansas. They reflect voter opinion that McCain was the nominee and that there was no longer any opposition.

Romney never was opposition! He was nevermore than a conservative-media creation. He never had public support. His leaving leaves no gap at all, it just clears up the fouled atmosphere of vitrolic propaganda spewed by talk. Hate radio has no dog left. Now there's only Huck, and we'll see how he does.

But as I've said, Saturday was a one shot deal. McCain supporters were blind-sided and Romney supporters shell-shocked. That won't happen again. Tuesday McCain supporters will be off their duff and Romney spporters will have made some decisions.

Have no idea where Romney supporters will go. Most just hate McCain, they don't have anywhere to go. They might (in small numbers) vote for Huck just to hurt McCain; they might still vote for Romney, who will still be on the ballot and will control whatever delegates he might get; and some will just stay home and pout. If there are any Romney supporters who actually do believe Romney was a conservative and that they were voting for something conservative, then they'll probably split, but more going Huck than McCain. --Some McCain supporters might go Huck just to put social issues pressure on McCain.

So I don't know how it will come out, but Huck is a lot of fun. The race finally has become genuine, not an elitist manipulation. The voters are now involved in a real process that is genuinely democratic, and I think a great many will gladly look forward to casting there vote.

The race begins now.

Some rough calculation, by the way, indicates that 59% of the delegates from now on to Huck will deny the outright nomination to McCain; it would take over 80% to make Huck the outright kingmaker. But at the moment that isn't the real intent. At the moment it's only important that Huck establish that he indisputably is the second most important man in the primary process.

-------------------
8:47
This is very interesting:

Fox News has learned that the Huckabee campaign has called for a “full investigation” into the Washington State Caucus results, and are sending campaign lawyers to the state to help in that pursuit. Ed Rollins, Huckabee campaign chairman, directly challenged Washington State GOP Chairman Luke Essers move in announcing that John McCain had won the tight race with only 87.2 percent of the votes counted. “The chairman showed very bad judgment in stopping the voting last night when announcing John McCain had won, when there was less that a 200 vote margin between the two candidates,” Rollins told Fox in an exclusive interview. ”You never announce a vote, in my 40 years of politics I have never known anybody to announce a vote count before the vote is counted.”

Rollins was quick to say that they were not accusing the McCain campaign of any impropriety but that their issue was solely with the Esser’s “bad judgment”.

BS, of course. Mr. Luke Essers, who ever he is, obviously tried to steal one for McCain. McCain had better get on it in a hurry. "Character counts", and if this is as bad as it sounds McCain had bettercrack some heads quick.

My assumption is that it was an "establishment" shenanigan, they just didn't want McCain to lose a sweep. But McCain's support isn't so firm that his supporters will excuse an attempt to steal an election, if they think McCain had any part in it. And nothing would energize Huck's supporters more. --I did check the results for hours last night and again this morning and never could understand why the total votes counted stayed frozen at 87%.

--By the way, my spell checker found a dozen misspellings in the original article and corrected them. Possibly I should have left them in. It seems to indicate a news piece written in an extraordinary hurry.

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9:06
Note:

Obama just won Maine and has taken an overall delegate lead even counting superdelegates, and Hillary just got rid of her campaign manager and put in a new one. This is called "momentum" on Obama's side, and desperation and crackup on Hillary's. And there is such a thing as zeitgeist. Obama is young, and a challenge to the establishment. Huck is not quite so young, but also a challenge to the establishment. What is true for one could easily be true for the other: it's time for someone in the White House other than someone who's been there forever.

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1:30AM
The Seattle Times, and one of their bloggers, Postman on Politics, have a little more. Postman seems to be following it quite closely. The quote from the Times story I found most interesting was this:

Esser said their last county report on Saturday came shortly before 10:15p.m., at which point they had 87.2 percent of precincts reporting. That's when they did an analysis, saying: "Let's take every county where Huckabee is beating McCain, and double the margin of victory," Esser said. "And then take every county where McCain is winning and cut in half that margin of victory. Even if you assume that, Sen. McCain still holds on."

Which is a kind of analysis that makes no demographic sense at all, unless they could assume that all demographics were already proportionately represented. But still, it's an odd call with only 242 votes separating the men. One heavy precinct for Huckabee could change that result. --Earlier, in just one county McCain went up over Huckabee by about 400 votes.

Josh Marshall, lefty blogger, is quoted by Postman:

Now, I think it would be borderline for a media organization to declare one candidate a winner when the margin separating first and second was 1.8% with 13% of the results still uncounted. But for the officials holding the election to declare the result on that basis is simply bizarre. But that's what they did.

Marshall is a muckraker. He's following this as a scandal and following it very well. Interesting that in this case my mind works just like that of a guy who's a lefty.

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2:05AM
Note: Ed Morissy at Captains Quarters is arguing that McCain is heading for a blowout win over Huckabee this Tuesday:

UPDATE: McCain may be heading to a blowout win in the South that should put an end to Huckabee's hopes for a miracle: [Altogether he gives data from three different polls] ....If Huckabee loses a Southern state by over 20 points, that should signal him to end the effort.

But those polls were conducted Thursday and Friday! I'll bet my assumptions that Huck will do well are more accurate than Morrisey's that he'll do badly.

The Coming Dynamic

There are three states today where Republicans vote: Washington, Louisiana, and Kansas. Louisiana is a closed primary (where only twenty delegates will be determined, and then only if one candidate gets an absolute majority. It's some odd continuation from their earlier caucus and is a system too byzantine to be understood). Washington is an open caucus, Kansas is a closed caucus.

Mitt is out, McCain has the nomination, who's going to bother to vote?

But people do vote, motivated people. What could be the motivation with the nomination already sewn up?

McCain is good on national defense, he's pretty good on fiscal policy. He's gotten criticism but in fact has never brought an ear mark to Arizona, he's never voted for a tax increase. He's pretty good.

How is he on social issues? Guns, gay marriage, abortion, Supreme Court nominations, immigration --and immigration is a social issue, it's not fundamentally an economic or national defense issue-- home schooling, God in the public square, God in the public school? How is he on all these things? What could be the motivation to vote?

It's obvious. He could use a little boost. He could learn that his electorate, the people who basically do like him, do take these matters very seriously. There's only one good reason yet to vote and that's message. There's one candidate who stands strongly on these issues and that's Huck. A vote for Huck sends that message, and that's why I think his numbers are going to go up.

And this is a unique opportunity. The race is over. The party can't be fractured now by splitting the vote between two very different candidates with two very different bases of support. This isn't a vote against McCain, it's merely a boost. And face it, this is important. Evangelicals are a bit of an embarrassment to the elite. "Vote and shut-up." But if the vote is insistent the voice is insistent as well. This is a good time to vote.

I don't know if this is going to happen but it could. If Huck goes to the convention with more delegates than Romney he's got more influence than the elites.

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12:30PM

Kind of hard to even find any notice on the net that Republicans vote today. It's all Clinton and Obama. That's okay. If it does happen that Huck pulls one out of the hat, coming as such an utter surprise, it will make quite a splash. I note, by the way, I do like McCain, I just want to see Huck become "the clear runner-up". I get that phrase from Bill Bradley, who so far is the only one I've found who's even taking note of the vote.

08:17 am PST — Game Day: Semi-Super Saturday

Several significant contests today in the deadlocked Democratic presidential race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. While on the Republican side, presumptive nominee John McCain does some mopping up while Mike Huckabee, coming off a strong Super Tuesday showing in the South, moves to roll up more delegates and finish as the clear Republican runner-up.

Further speculation:

I think events since Tuesday --actually Wednesday morning, when it became clear that McCain in effect had swept California-- have been so sudden that Romney voters will probably be lost. They won't as yet have determined on a second choice, and won't even bother to vote.

Some McCain supporters won't bother, because why? it's all sewn up. Only Huckabee supporters will be motivated, because their vote still matters. This almost, inadvertently, gives Huckabee a chance to blind-side McCain this particular Saturday. He just won't be prepared for the turnout. --I do expect the turnout will be greatly reduced, but it's proportions will move toward favoring Huck. Some small portion of McCain supporters may even move to Huck. Not out of any displeasure with McCain, but just because it's so clear that if what is desired is that a message be sent, the only messenger available is Huck. (I always forget Ron Paul even exists).

It does seem this Saturday all advantages are to Huck. But this is only in terms of direction of movement. I have no idea what their present standings are because there are no polls.

I do note there's a national Newsweek poll just out that shows McCain 51, Huckabee 32. That's a fifteen point jump for Huck. That just means people still consider him a factor, whatever might be their reasons.

For Dems: Obama is expected to sweep. That's good.

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3:55PM

Ha! Am I the world's most brilliant man or not!?

Huckabee wins Kansas Republican presidential race

OVERLAND PARK, Kansas (Reuters) - Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the Kansas contest on Saturday to choose a Republican U.S. presidential candidate, chalking up another victory after a strong showing in the South earlier in the week, U.S. media projected

Will read a bit more but have to get some sleep. --May have beaten McCain 3-1. That argues the dynamic is at work. --By my argument this is a national phenomena so he should do exceptionally well in Washington and Louisiana as well.

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This is funny:

Texas Gov. Perry Asks Huckabee to Drop Out

COLLEGE PARK, MD. -- Gov. Rick Perry. R-Texas, who has endorsed John McCain,called Mike Huckabee on Friday asking him to drop out of the race, according to a senior Huckabee campaign aide. Huckabee declined Perry's request....

"I'd like to think the Republican Party is mature enough, big enough, and smart enough that it actually knows competition brings excellence. And the lack of competiton brings mediocrity," Huckabee said.....

"If we're really serious about taking it all the way to November, we better have a candidate who's truly battle-tested. So this nonsense about how I should step aside and have a cakewalk all the way to the election, that's crazy. Unless they were all to step aside and let me have a cakewalk, then that would be a fine thing. But otherwise, I can see no value in that at all."

This dovetails with one of my own observations: If McCain gets angry and slams Huckabee he loses support big time, because anger is seen as one of his flaws, but if Huckabee keeps it light and has fun that's one of his great strengths, and more people will join him just because it has become a race that is fun.

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9:46

Numbers looking better:
LA: Huck 48, McCain 38 (59%)
WA: Huckabee 27, McCain 23, Paul 21 (37%)
Could be a Huck sweep.

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11:55
Results really coming in slow. From CNN: The former Arkansas governor beat McCain in Kansas by nearly a 3-1 margin. Huckabee also was leading in Louisiana. In Washington state, the Republican caucuses were too close to call.

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2:10AM

Narrow win in Louisiana, narrow loss in Washington.

Huck 2012?

Haven't had much time to read today but it seems there's a great deal of speculation as to the Veep. The race is over, don't cha know?

Of course it's over in that we know the nominee. That's McCain, and he's a good man. But it's not really over until we know the second most important man in the race. There is disagreement, it has to be settled.

Some think it's Romney, the guy who didn't win one state where he didn't have a hometown advantage --daddy, 95% Mormon support, one four year episode of being something of a governor, and of course caucuses. Added with that he had unbroken elite support, and --has anyone mentioned-- money money money. With all that he didn't win one state where people actually went into a booth and pulled a lever for a man they knew simply and only as a possible national leader. To my mind what he's established is that with a lot he can do little. Simply put, in terms of political gift, in terms of the gift to lead and excite, he is a nincompoop. 'Course, so are the elites, the people who picked him, supported him, created him. And they want their nincompoop as Veep. After all, they deserve some representation too, don't they?

Actually, no. Nincompoops are not good for America, whether they're in universities or behind microphones or behind a monitor somewhere punditering over each others punditery. What America needs is a political leader with a political brain, a unique gift, and that might be Mike.

The great thing about political gift is that it is totally easy to judge: if you don't got it you don't get to the top. That's the measure. McCain made it. He made it on his own. He was not anointed. He has that gift. Romney was anointed, he didn't make it. He does not have that gift. He has other gifts, but he does not have the gift to lead.

But then there's Huck. We'll see. He certainly to date has achieved an immense amount with very little: no money, no elite support (something of the opposite) and yet great success. To the elites, some are impressed, most snicker: "Regional candidate," "Evangelical support only," "Time to get out, Huck, now!"

Yet Huck staying in. Is this foolishness? Vanity? Or does he see something others don't?

I don't know. I don't claim to have political gifts. I claim only that I'm smarter than those who despise McCain and dismiss Huck. To my mind that makes me normal. But I do have some advantages. I have thought about this a lot and I've come up with one bit of wisdom: Wait And See.

We'll see what Huck does. I'm quite certain that what he does will be politically smart. I don't know if he'll get out in three days, or if he'll stay in until the convention, but I rather expect that whatever he does he will end with more influence when he finally withdraws than he has now. A little or a lot more I don't know. I do expect he knows exactly what cards he has, and will play them very well. I do want him to come to be seen as unquestionably the second most important man in the race.

I of course dream great things, victories here, victories there. That might be to expect too much, but I do expect history to repeat itself, I expect him to do "better than expected."

Conservatism in America is a three legged stool. I'm uncertain of the exact anatomy of that stool, but I do know I would like to see the Huck leg of that stool kick that stools rear end.

Huck Gets Gold!

...Or silver, as the case might be. Just turned on the radio and the Mitt has quit. Allow me.... WHOOPEE!!! --So deeply I respected and revered and honored the man, he will be missed.

Have heard no details by the way, that later. --Note: I believe Bill Kristol predicted already late Tuesday night that Romney would use his CPAC address to withdraw. That Bill Kristol is a smart guy, you gotta listen to him. But I will modestly mention as well that there are those who for some time have insisted that there were only two meaningfully viable men in the Republican primary and one of them wasn't the fellow just gone.

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9:12PM

I have had time to read some and will read more in a bit.

Apparently Mitt gave a quality speech and called for party unity. That was a wise course and welcome. Then McCain spoke, stating general conservative ideas and was well received. That's good. It's sane to get behind your candidate, and McCain is acceptable to anybody not insane. I believe Paul spoke first and Huck didn't show.

Why no Huck show? Very possibly he wanted to give the limelight to MaC.

Paul will stay in. He's the ultimate in terms of message candidate; and Huck has said he will stay in. McCain will continue to campaign, but at a more leisured pace, stressing the larger gatherings, and going Obama. He has to be quite general for awhile. He has to give the wounded-right time to come back with some sense of personal dignity --by whatever arguments they can come up with. He can't go right but he can go general. It would be good if he could create some good feeling and some optimism.

Where will Romney's votes go? I've long said he had no support other than McCain hatred. With your enemy successful and warmly welcomed by many and yourself on the small and losing end, how long is it going to be satisfying to be righteous? Once you've lost you have no power anymore. Nobody has to listen. I really don't think the satisfactions of righteousness are great when you're ignored.

For awhile many will decided not to vote, a few will vote for Paul, I suppose a few will vote for Huck, though I don't know how many since he's demon second. 'Course, he's the only one who could get enough votes to possibly beat McCain in a race or two... I don't know that that's a very powerful motivation.

I don't know how things will turn out but it's nothing but consolidation from now on. Huck will be respectful of McCain --he genuinely likes McCain-- but he might push for some wins. He is a message candidate too, as well as Paul, and Evangelicals do want to be a force and they couldn't have a better candidate. And a continuing race, as long as it's not bitter, is good for everybody. It means more news coverage. --I do hope Mitt disappears and keeps his mouth shut.

Right-wing nut-talk radio? I don't know if they'll get on board or not. I certainly have developed a contempt for them. What they do is something I'll have to read about, I'm sure not going to listen. Except for Medved, who's been quite honorable.

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This is fun. From Swampland:

Clint Eastwood: Ann Coulter, others, 'masochistic'

Clint Eastwood, actor, film director and producer and himself a smalltown mayor, sees a sense of masochism in the Republicans -- like Ann Coulter... Coulter, commentator and author of If Democrats Had Any Brains, They’d be Republicans, had said last week on FOX's Hannity and Colmes that she'd sooner campaign for Clinton than vote for McCain.

Ann, as I've said before, spank yourself.

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This Is Good:

OMAHA, NE -- Barack Obama called Mitt Romney's candidacy "ineffective" on the day that the former MA governor exited the presidential race.

Romney, who dropped out of the race for president today in Washington, said in his exit speech that the GOP must unify and not allow Democrats to allow the country to "surrender to terror."

"Well my reaction to Mitt Romney's comment that's the kind of poorly thought out comment that lead him to drop out," Obama said during a press avail on his campaign plane. "It's a classic attempt to appeal to people's fears that will not work in this campaign. I think that's part of the reason he was such an ineffective candidate."

Actually, I have no idea what he just said but it's a gratuitous insult and gives the Mitt-heads somebody to be angry with besides McCain.

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The entertainment doesn't stop. This from Howard Fineman:

Burying Mitt: Romney failed because he ran as something he's not.

The quality of being genuine is hard to convey, and deciding who should be president based solely on that basis can lead to disaster; you need brains and an ability to go with the flow as well. But voters know a phony above all and Romney came off as one from the get-go.

And so forth. Romney's out. He's not a factor anymore. There's no particular reason why a Democrat should bother to kick him in the head... except that Fineman judged he needed it because he is a phony and that gets under one's skin. --This is MSM, kicking Mitt when he's down. People who like Mitt really don't like MSM... How are the so recently dispossessed possibly going to have enough energy to hate all the people who are disrespecting their man Mitt?

----------------
Huck says some gracious words and adds: "I'd like to ask for and welcome the support of those who had previously been committed to Mitt." So again it is affirmed that we have yet the Huckabbee with us.

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And this is nice, a piece by Noemie Emery discussing nut-right-nut-radio. A lot of people who used to find it a delight now can't listen. She qoutes some who say [of Hannity] "... it was like he was talking about Hillary Clinton or Al Gore or John Kerry."

The hosts are being urged on by most of the people who call into their programs, but while this goes on, unknown numbers of others are turning the dial, or turning them off, or turning the sound down until those rare moments when they find a different pinata to thwack at. They may not come back, and if they do, they may always look at them differently.

So true. I can't stand the bastards anymore. This needs some psy-co-a-na-ly-sis. Maybe I'll try that tomorrow.

Morning After Notes

--More in sorrow than in anger: Mitt, Get Outta da race! I trust it is properly understood how genuine is my sorrow.

--It occurs to me that now that it's understood Mitt is not a viable candidate Huck will do better in the next contest. If Mitt actually does have some conservative support -- and not just anti-McCain hate-support-- and if those voters do want a candidate who can carry their message and actually win in a state where people actually go into a both and vote, then the man to get behind is Huck. (Mitt has proven he can't win where people actually vote. He can win where he can buy caucus organization; and he can win where his daddy's been governor, where he's been governor, or where nobody lives but Mormons, but he can't win where people actually go into a both like normal Americans and pull a lever).

--And it occurs to me that the reason people who consider the economy there number one issue vote more heavily for McCain than Romney is because Romney has shown how badly he handles money. He's a spend spend spend candidate, damn the results. His cost/benefit analysis seems nonexistent. His financial judgment seems nonexistent to foolhardy. Bad man to trust with the public's money.

--Note that Drudge headlines: Election Shock: Obama Claims Delegate Lead

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11:10
Just found this. Stunningly similar to my thought. Joe Carter of Evangelical Outpost. Never heard of it before but have bookmarked it.

Huckabee Wins!

West Virginia --

CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) - Mike Huckabee won the first contest declared on Super Tuesday, picking up all 18 national delegates awarded at West Virginia's state GOP convention. Huckabee bested Mitt Romney, who entered the Mountain State event with the largest bloc of pledged convention-goers. Both men and Ron Paul made in-person appeals to the more than 1,100 convention delegates attending Tuesday's convention.

But the former Arkansas governor beat his Massachusetts counterpart after delegates for John McCain defected to his side.

Note: Both men spoke, Romney and Huck. Huck, a much brighter man than Mitt, was the more convincing, and won. And note: McCain delegates switched, not to Romney, but to Huck, contrary to what just about every pundit would have said --a group, by the way, at least on the conservative side, who are decidedly not bright. Stunningly stupid people, these people on the right, people just a month ago that I used to listen to.

So, feeling good, I predict: This is a trend. Huck will win every state in the union!... Or maybe not.

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7:05

Not much in yet and I gotta go do animal duties in a minute.

--Huck seems to be doing better in the South than his earlier poll numbers, which was my prediction.
--Obama is doing very well, which was everyone's prediction, though he may be doing even better than that.
--The Romney camp (and supporters) are claiming dirty backroom dealing on McCain's part in Huck's win in West Virginia. I didn't predict that but could have.
--Note: The only thing that interests me on the Democrat side is that Hillary be embarrassed. If she's embarrassed I think in the following primaries she'll be defeated. I think that because I think even most Democrats are sick of both her and her husband. It would be a splendid cleansing of the American political scene if the human waste that are the Clintons were swept out by the Democrats themselves. There would be a finality to it. --As for my Republican interests I think Obama is beatable, because I think "change" mainly means "No more Clintons". If Hillary is beaten the simple mantra "change" won't resonate so much anymore, it's "mission accomplished". So Barack will have to add something more --specifics-- and once he adds specifics he'll no longer seem quite so exciting. --(Two reasons: Specifics are never as exciting as something glorious and vague; and specifics are always going to offend some people.)

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I'll post this just for fun. From RCP

8:35 PM - To add to Blake's last post,Huckabee is having a very good night which would seem to indicate that the"A Vote for Huck Is a Vote For McCain" line that was pushed hard by the rightwing talkers over the past week fell on deaf ears. - TOM BEVAN

8:30PM - Arkansas just closed. No surprise here: Huckabee and Clinton are the winners. What is noteworthy: Huckabee has won three states so far.- BLAKE DVORAK

Doesn't appear he's going to sweep the entire union. Oh well... Alabama, Arkansas, West Viginia... Could win Tennessee, maybe Georgia. Missouri is close. I think that's it, except for maybe some delegates from California.

---------------------
And this is fun:

9:13PM - A note to the media: Mike Huckabee is not dead. He's ahead narrowly in Missouri, has already won Arkansas, Alabama and West Virginia and looks competitive in Arizona. If today is a bad day for Mitt Romney, it's a great day for Huckabee. Of course, if the Republican race comes down to a McCain-Huckabee battle, Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter will be hurling themselves from windows later this evening. -REID WILSON

Ann should spank herself, Rush should place his face under a big concrete block, and "conservatives" who are warning that McCain better nice-nice up to them while he's still got a chance really ought to apologize to him and Huck while they yet retain some credibility with the American Republican voter. To pick a phrase from the aether: tantrum babies with delicate egos do not gravitas express. --I had no idea Huck was doing well in Arizona.

And this is fun; From Bill Bradley:

** WHO SHOULD DROP OUT? Let’s see.

Mike Huckabee has won Alabama, West Virginia, and Arkansas. He’s leading in Georgia and Tennessee. He’s getting big votes in other states. He’s doing better than Mitt Romney so far.

Who exactly should drop out?

And there are massive numbers of posts on The Corner discussing all that McCain has to do... to regain the support of people who don't matter. The reference to Arizona above has to be a mistake, the numbers I just saw were McCain/Romney 36%/36%, Huck 7%. --Note: Bradley doesn't like Romney any more than I do.
--Note on Arizona. Arkansas is abbreviated AR. It got translated as Arizona. Arizona is abbreviated AZ.

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Tennessee, Missouri, and Georgia have been called for Huckabee. He's already won Alabama, Arkansas and West Virginia. He came in second in Oklahoma. I think that's it for him. Romney has won Massachusetts and Utah, North Dakota and Montana. I think McCain has all the rest, though California and Alaska may not come through until tomorrow. Forgot about Minnesota. That will go Romney.

Huck had this to say:

"Over the past few days, a lot of people have been trying to say this is a two-man race, well, you know what, it is -- and we're in it!"

I rather like that. In delegates McCain will have a huge lead, it's possible Huck will end up with more than Mitt. They'll be very close.

So the night has turned out about the way I'd predicted... Using my sophisticated tools of analysis: Huck is a nice guy, McCain is honorable, and Romney is a jerk.

Democrats seem about even. That should be enough to be an embarrassment for Hillary. --A little later I'll comment on the twit world of the conservative twilight elite. May they fade from view.

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03:55AM
Having taken a substantial break, I now return to my labor of entertainment. It is my cross and my duty...
--And though I've read a lot my duty is not extensive. McCain, slightly to my disappointment, pulled out a squeaker over Huck in Missouri, that's 58 delegates Huck won't be getting so Romney will clearly best him tonight in the delegate count. However, McCain will win over twice as many as Mitt, which is very good news. McCain, by-the-way, won California, Mitt's fallback state, by 13% at last count.
--Hillary, unfortunately, also won California by a similar amount. But the good news is that Barack won more states overall and appears to have won more delegates. That is an embarrassment to Hillary, though it appears she's still going to claim front-runner status --which appears to be just fine with Obama, who has already declared that he's still the underdog.
--Looks like the nomination is McCain's, though Huck is going to stay in yet for sure --why not? he did splendidly well and he seems to be able to run effectively with no money at all; and running he'll still be able to take potshots at Romney, which will help McCain. --Romney says he's going to stay in but at some point it should occur to him to be embarrassed.
--Political spin tomorrow. I sure hope some of the leaders of the right pretty soon start feeling some embarrassment, and dump on themselves a bit and not McCain.