Blindsided?

Haven't read much. Huck's been in the Cayman's, should have been back to Wisconsin Sunday evening for a function. He's certainly not making news, no mentions of him except the mildly derisive ones referencing his being a long ways away in the sunny tropics. The "news" is McCain "squaring off" with Obama over his "flip-flop" on pledging to accept public financing, now turning down public financing because he can raise more money on the Internet. Lots a lots a print over the struggle among the Democrats over what to expect from the super delegates, should they follow their own judgment, or the expressed preference of the voter. Similarly, argument over the seating --or not-- of the Florida and Michigan delegates. And Bill having a fury. That's the news. Nothing on Huck.

I think Huck has positioned himself in Wisconsin as well as possible. There is no anger towards him as being divisive (how can a man in the Cayman's be divisive) so no one is going to vote against him in anger at breaking party unity. McCain is confident of a Wisconsin win, and so I believe has made only one visit. He's so confident of his nomination that he's gone into general election mode, ignoring the primaries, focusing on Obama as his probable November opponent.

And the grass roots are probably working like bees.

This anyway is my speculation. There are just a lot of people who still want to send a message, and there's just no one telling them that they shouldn't. A very great many of these people are going to quietly go vote Huck.

--People who are a bit stunned by Romney throwing in the towel and endorsing McCain may vote Huck. I don't know how many, most may stay home, very few will follow Romney's lead and vote McCain, but many may be angered and vote Huck because they do know he is a conservative and this time, at least as a message, they'll know they won't be wasting their vote on a fake.

--And a number of those who simply hate McCain may now decide not to expend their vote on Obama/Hillary --Obama's going to win anyway-- but may instead vote against McCain by voting for Huck. Not because they like him, but because it's the only effective way left yet to embarrass McCain --and it's not really a vote for Huck anyway since he sure isn't going to get the nomination.

So these things are all in play and they all favor Huck. How many people lukewarm towards McCain will vote for him just to be with a winner and to express party unity I don't know. I do suppose quite a few will not bother to vote because it's all been decided already anyhow.

These are very similar to the forces that were in play in Virginia where Huck had a run and made McCain sweat a bit (and in Wisconsin McCain won't have a military demographic to pull him through). It's true in Virginia the Huck surge fell short, but there is this difference in Wisconsin: In Wisconsin it's not winner take all, it's proportional, so close counts.

I expect Huck will have a good showing, and again, will "surprise". The principle reason I think he will surprise is because the party establishment, and the press for that matter, really doesn't recognize the force of the social conservative's feelings, and so don't even see these people on their radar. But I think they're there, and I see the possibility they might strike in numbers with a wallop. I'm certainly hoping that anyway.

Note: I don't believe I've ever heard Huckabee promise "change". He must be the only candidate in either party who's an insider and thinks things are just fine the way they are. I didn't know that.