Pondering the Poop
The poop is that if Hillary doesn't win both Texas and Ohio --certainly at least one-- she's dead and Barack will be the nominee because he will be the people's choice. This is the poop. It's poop. The nearly 50% who will have voted for Hillary are not going to consider Barack the people's choice and they're not going to quit and Hillary isn't going to quite. Barack, to knock Hillary out of the race, has to beat her three to one. That would illustrate Hillary has been discredited. That's not going to happen. It's going to the convention and it will be decided by the superdelegates.
The probably nominee is Hillary. This is a turn-about from my opinion of just a week ago when I thought she was dead. I have to revisit my feelings of that time.
We've all been caught up in the "inevitability" story. Hillary the inevitable, Hillary the inevitable, we in effect have heard that for years now. So when it turns out she's not inevitable, that she might be defeated, we think in the terms that have conditioned our minds for so long and say that if she's not inevitable, why then she's dead. Those are the only two options, inevitable or dead, that's the way we've come to think.
In fact, she's just in a fight. This has to be the new focus. It's proven now that she's not inevitable, it's proven in fact that she can fall behind, that does not prove at all that she can't fight and can't come back and win.
I fear that I bought into the "momentum" meme after Wisconsin, when for the first time without doubt momentum was a factor and Barack made inroads into her base. "It's all over" I said --as did so many others-- but Texas is two weeks from Wisconsin and that's a long long time for such a light chip as Obama to sail with any force. Texas and Ohio will be a demographics, and not a momentum election, and the demographics --principally union and Latino-- somewhat favor Hillary. She'll probably win. If she wins both Texas and Ohio, for Obama it's going to be like a cork hitting a brick; Obama momentum will be spinning on the pavement. Then we'll see how he does at the convention.
I see all this as possible now while I didn't a week ago. Time is on Hillary's side. I'm convinced that the huge fuel to the Obama fire has zilch to do with anything so fine as hope but was just anti-Hillary hatred; and while that fuel still smolders I think that all that's combustible has already been lit. The people who like Hillary, by whatever poor judgment that may be, like her still, and with the two week calm now before the next fight what is Obama but just a platitudinous podge of smoke. He has to talk now, exchange nasty quips with John, and what-in-the-world has that guy got to say whenever it does comes to matter what he does say? He may be the Ascalon that slew the Dragon Queen (she is dead now you know, or so so many say) but when his mouth has to open and close in something like real debate with a man of a very different stripe what is he but a Kos Kids Kook?
Anyway, it's going to the convention. Barack is a vapor trail, he'll dissipate in the general. Most of the superdelegates will know that, they'll vote Hillary, and blacks will sit out the general. That gives Republicans a chance... except, unfortunately we've got John, who seems in the process of angering as many Republicans as Hillary is going to anger Democrats.
The probably nominee is Hillary. This is a turn-about from my opinion of just a week ago when I thought she was dead. I have to revisit my feelings of that time.
We've all been caught up in the "inevitability" story. Hillary the inevitable, Hillary the inevitable, we in effect have heard that for years now. So when it turns out she's not inevitable, that she might be defeated, we think in the terms that have conditioned our minds for so long and say that if she's not inevitable, why then she's dead. Those are the only two options, inevitable or dead, that's the way we've come to think.
In fact, she's just in a fight. This has to be the new focus. It's proven now that she's not inevitable, it's proven in fact that she can fall behind, that does not prove at all that she can't fight and can't come back and win.
I fear that I bought into the "momentum" meme after Wisconsin, when for the first time without doubt momentum was a factor and Barack made inroads into her base. "It's all over" I said --as did so many others-- but Texas is two weeks from Wisconsin and that's a long long time for such a light chip as Obama to sail with any force. Texas and Ohio will be a demographics, and not a momentum election, and the demographics --principally union and Latino-- somewhat favor Hillary. She'll probably win. If she wins both Texas and Ohio, for Obama it's going to be like a cork hitting a brick; Obama momentum will be spinning on the pavement. Then we'll see how he does at the convention.
I see all this as possible now while I didn't a week ago. Time is on Hillary's side. I'm convinced that the huge fuel to the Obama fire has zilch to do with anything so fine as hope but was just anti-Hillary hatred; and while that fuel still smolders I think that all that's combustible has already been lit. The people who like Hillary, by whatever poor judgment that may be, like her still, and with the two week calm now before the next fight what is Obama but just a platitudinous podge of smoke. He has to talk now, exchange nasty quips with John, and what-in-the-world has that guy got to say whenever it does comes to matter what he does say? He may be the Ascalon that slew the Dragon Queen (she is dead now you know, or so so many say) but when his mouth has to open and close in something like real debate with a man of a very different stripe what is he but a Kos Kids Kook?
Anyway, it's going to the convention. Barack is a vapor trail, he'll dissipate in the general. Most of the superdelegates will know that, they'll vote Hillary, and blacks will sit out the general. That gives Republicans a chance... except, unfortunately we've got John, who seems in the process of angering as many Republicans as Hillary is going to anger Democrats.
posted by mouse at 11:55 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home