The Dynamism Done Come?
Not sure what will happen Tuesday: Maryland, Virginia, D.C. The Saturday poll numbers I saw put Huck behind 39% in Maryland, about 30% in Virginia. D.C. I don't know but it doesn't matter.
These polls reflect McCain's sweep of California --not known until Wednesday morning-- and Mitt's surprise withdrawal Thursday. They don't reflect Huck's over-all good showing Saturday, and his absolute devastation of McCain in Kansas. They reflect voter opinion that McCain was the nominee and that there was no longer any opposition.
Romney never was opposition! He was nevermore than a conservative-media creation. He never had public support. His leaving leaves no gap at all, it just clears up the fouled atmosphere of vitrolic propaganda spewed by talk. Hate radio has no dog left. Now there's only Huck, and we'll see how he does.
But as I've said, Saturday was a one shot deal. McCain supporters were blind-sided and Romney supporters shell-shocked. That won't happen again. Tuesday McCain supporters will be off their duff and Romney spporters will have made some decisions.
Have no idea where Romney supporters will go. Most just hate McCain, they don't have anywhere to go. They might (in small numbers) vote for Huck just to hurt McCain; they might still vote for Romney, who will still be on the ballot and will control whatever delegates he might get; and some will just stay home and pout. If there are any Romney supporters who actually do believe Romney was a conservative and that they were voting for something conservative, then they'll probably split, but more going Huck than McCain. --Some McCain supporters might go Huck just to put social issues pressure on McCain.
So I don't know how it will come out, but Huck is a lot of fun. The race finally has become genuine, not an elitist manipulation. The voters are now involved in a real process that is genuinely democratic, and I think a great many will gladly look forward to casting there vote.
The race begins now.
Some rough calculation, by the way, indicates that 59% of the delegates from now on to Huck will deny the outright nomination to McCain; it would take over 80% to make Huck the outright kingmaker. But at the moment that isn't the real intent. At the moment it's only important that Huck establish that he indisputably is the second most important man in the primary process.
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8:47
This is very interesting:
BS, of course. Mr. Luke Essers, who ever he is, obviously tried to steal one for McCain. McCain had better get on it in a hurry. "Character counts", and if this is as bad as it sounds McCain had bettercrack some heads quick.
My assumption is that it was an "establishment" shenanigan, they just didn't want McCain to lose a sweep. But McCain's support isn't so firm that his supporters will excuse an attempt to steal an election, if they think McCain had any part in it. And nothing would energize Huck's supporters more. --I did check the results for hours last night and again this morning and never could understand why the total votes counted stayed frozen at 87%.
--By the way, my spell checker found a dozen misspellings in the original article and corrected them. Possibly I should have left them in. It seems to indicate a news piece written in an extraordinary hurry.
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9:06
Note:
Obama just won Maine and has taken an overall delegate lead even counting superdelegates, and Hillary just got rid of her campaign manager and put in a new one. This is called "momentum" on Obama's side, and desperation and crackup on Hillary's. And there is such a thing as zeitgeist. Obama is young, and a challenge to the establishment. Huck is not quite so young, but also a challenge to the establishment. What is true for one could easily be true for the other: it's time for someone in the White House other than someone who's been there forever.
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1:30AM
The Seattle Times, and one of their bloggers, Postman on Politics, have a little more. Postman seems to be following it quite closely. The quote from the Times story I found most interesting was this:
Which is a kind of analysis that makes no demographic sense at all, unless they could assume that all demographics were already proportionately represented. But still, it's an odd call with only 242 votes separating the men. One heavy precinct for Huckabee could change that result. --Earlier, in just one county McCain went up over Huckabee by about 400 votes.
Josh Marshall, lefty blogger, is quoted by Postman:
Marshall is a muckraker. He's following this as a scandal and following it very well. Interesting that in this case my mind works just like that of a guy who's a lefty.
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2:05AM
Note: Ed Morissy at Captains Quarters is arguing that McCain is heading for a blowout win over Huckabee this Tuesday:
But those polls were conducted Thursday and Friday! I'll bet my assumptions that Huck will do well are more accurate than Morrisey's that he'll do badly.
These polls reflect McCain's sweep of California --not known until Wednesday morning-- and Mitt's surprise withdrawal Thursday. They don't reflect Huck's over-all good showing Saturday, and his absolute devastation of McCain in Kansas. They reflect voter opinion that McCain was the nominee and that there was no longer any opposition.
Romney never was opposition! He was nevermore than a conservative-media creation. He never had public support. His leaving leaves no gap at all, it just clears up the fouled atmosphere of vitrolic propaganda spewed by talk. Hate radio has no dog left. Now there's only Huck, and we'll see how he does.
But as I've said, Saturday was a one shot deal. McCain supporters were blind-sided and Romney supporters shell-shocked. That won't happen again. Tuesday McCain supporters will be off their duff and Romney spporters will have made some decisions.
Have no idea where Romney supporters will go. Most just hate McCain, they don't have anywhere to go. They might (in small numbers) vote for Huck just to hurt McCain; they might still vote for Romney, who will still be on the ballot and will control whatever delegates he might get; and some will just stay home and pout. If there are any Romney supporters who actually do believe Romney was a conservative and that they were voting for something conservative, then they'll probably split, but more going Huck than McCain. --Some McCain supporters might go Huck just to put social issues pressure on McCain.
So I don't know how it will come out, but Huck is a lot of fun. The race finally has become genuine, not an elitist manipulation. The voters are now involved in a real process that is genuinely democratic, and I think a great many will gladly look forward to casting there vote.
The race begins now.
Some rough calculation, by the way, indicates that 59% of the delegates from now on to Huck will deny the outright nomination to McCain; it would take over 80% to make Huck the outright kingmaker. But at the moment that isn't the real intent. At the moment it's only important that Huck establish that he indisputably is the second most important man in the primary process.
-------------------
8:47
This is very interesting:
Fox News has learned that the Huckabee campaign has called for a “full investigation” into the Washington State Caucus results, and are sending campaign lawyers to the state to help in that pursuit. Ed Rollins, Huckabee campaign chairman, directly challenged Washington State GOP Chairman Luke Essers move in announcing that John McCain had won the tight race with only 87.2 percent of the votes counted. “The chairman showed very bad judgment in stopping the voting last night when announcing John McCain had won, when there was less that a 200 vote margin between the two candidates,” Rollins told Fox in an exclusive interview. ”You never announce a vote, in my 40 years of politics I have never known anybody to announce a vote count before the vote is counted.”
Rollins was quick to say that they were not accusing the McCain campaign of any impropriety but that their issue was solely with the Esser’s “bad judgment”.
BS, of course. Mr. Luke Essers, who ever he is, obviously tried to steal one for McCain. McCain had better get on it in a hurry. "Character counts", and if this is as bad as it sounds McCain had bettercrack some heads quick.
My assumption is that it was an "establishment" shenanigan, they just didn't want McCain to lose a sweep. But McCain's support isn't so firm that his supporters will excuse an attempt to steal an election, if they think McCain had any part in it. And nothing would energize Huck's supporters more. --I did check the results for hours last night and again this morning and never could understand why the total votes counted stayed frozen at 87%.
--By the way, my spell checker found a dozen misspellings in the original article and corrected them. Possibly I should have left them in. It seems to indicate a news piece written in an extraordinary hurry.
---------------
9:06
Note:
Obama just won Maine and has taken an overall delegate lead even counting superdelegates, and Hillary just got rid of her campaign manager and put in a new one. This is called "momentum" on Obama's side, and desperation and crackup on Hillary's. And there is such a thing as zeitgeist. Obama is young, and a challenge to the establishment. Huck is not quite so young, but also a challenge to the establishment. What is true for one could easily be true for the other: it's time for someone in the White House other than someone who's been there forever.
--------------------
1:30AM
The Seattle Times, and one of their bloggers, Postman on Politics, have a little more. Postman seems to be following it quite closely. The quote from the Times story I found most interesting was this:
Esser said their last county report on Saturday came shortly before 10:15p.m., at which point they had 87.2 percent of precincts reporting. That's when they did an analysis, saying: "Let's take every county where Huckabee is beating McCain, and double the margin of victory," Esser said. "And then take every county where McCain is winning and cut in half that margin of victory. Even if you assume that, Sen. McCain still holds on."
Which is a kind of analysis that makes no demographic sense at all, unless they could assume that all demographics were already proportionately represented. But still, it's an odd call with only 242 votes separating the men. One heavy precinct for Huckabee could change that result. --Earlier, in just one county McCain went up over Huckabee by about 400 votes.
Josh Marshall, lefty blogger, is quoted by Postman:
Now, I think it would be borderline for a media organization to declare one candidate a winner when the margin separating first and second was 1.8% with 13% of the results still uncounted. But for the officials holding the election to declare the result on that basis is simply bizarre. But that's what they did.
Marshall is a muckraker. He's following this as a scandal and following it very well. Interesting that in this case my mind works just like that of a guy who's a lefty.
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2:05AM
Note: Ed Morissy at Captains Quarters is arguing that McCain is heading for a blowout win over Huckabee this Tuesday:
UPDATE: McCain may be heading to a blowout win in the South that should put an end to Huckabee's hopes for a miracle: [Altogether he gives data from three different polls] ....If Huckabee loses a Southern state by over 20 points, that should signal him to end the effort.
But those polls were conducted Thursday and Friday! I'll bet my assumptions that Huck will do well are more accurate than Morrisey's that he'll do badly.
posted by mouse at 7:10 PM
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