Ding Dong Dynamism

Things proceed as one would expect.

Survey USA, Virginia
02/07 - 02/08 McCain 57, Huckabee 25, Paul 9, McCain +32.0
02/09 - 02/10 McCain 48, Huckabee 37, Paul ,7 McCain +11.0

So McCain down 9, Huck up 12. Half the polling was done before Huck's Saturday wins, half after:

In the middle of the field period for this survey, Mike Huckabee won the Louisiana primary, won the Kansas caucus, and finished a strong 2nd in the WA state caucus. Any momentum Huckabee accrued from those wins would only partially be reflected in these interviews, half of which were completed before the results of the Saturday wins were known. By contrast, interviews in the SurveyUSA poll released 72 hours ago, on Friday 02/08/08, were conducted during the post-Super-Tuesday media coverage that described McCain for the first-time as the "almost certain" party nominee. These competing, buffeting forces are at work: McCain supporters may feel he has the Republican nomination mathematically "locked," and may not be as motivated to turn-out as they would otherwise. Anti-McCain supporters may be uniquely motivated to vote in protest against McCain, and may turn-out in larger numbers than here forecast.
Couldn't have said it better myself.

There's similar movement in Maryland, though not as great.

SurveyUSA 02/07 - 02/08 360 LV 56 17 10 McCain +39.
SurveyUSA 02/09 - 02/10 368 LV 52 26 10 McCain +26.0

Nationally, in Rasmussen, Huck's best showing, he trails McCain only by 12.

Rasmussen Tracking 02/07 - 02/10 800 LV 46 34 8 -- McCain +12.0

This simply indicates a Republican electorate not yet settled on McCain. And he hasn't done himself any favors with his response to the Washington fiasco:

“It's pretty clear that we won [in Washington],”McCain said. “[Huckabee] certainly has the right to challenge if he chooses to. But I honestly don't know enough about the details except that I know that state parties declare elections when they have sufficient evidence as to who's won and who's lost. That's not unusual in any way.”

He has to be the only one who thinks this call wasn't unusual in any way. He should have said: "In America every vote is counted. I don't know the details but if there are questions about the count they have to be cleared up. That said, I like the results, they must be right, I won." Or something both gracious and humorous, and he could have still said he won. It's not a big deal but the people paying attention will be Huck supporters in Virginia and Maryland... but Virginia and Maryland happen to be important just at the moment --I think part of the reason he's a maverick is he doesn't have the political skills to be a diplomat.

And others make the same arguments I've been making:

Huckabee brushes off calls to bow out

Consultant Rich Galen, who worked for Thompson but now is unaffiliated,said Huckabee "has still got money and he's having a good time. He's not conducting a negative campaign. He could go on to be recognized as the leaderof the conservative wing of the Republican Party."

Greg Mueller, a conservative Republican consultant not associated with acandidate, said Huckabee is helping to burnish his own reputation as perhaps"the next man in line" for Republicans in a future contest "so long as he'samassing delegates."

"With Romney out of the race, Huckabee becamea repository for the anti-McCain vote. I think for conservatives, it doesn'thurt for a while here to make sure Senator McCain and his folks understandthat the fissures that conservatives have with Senator McCain didn't happenovernight, and are not going to be resolved overnight," said Mueller. "Oneof the reasons Huckabee is staying in is to give a voice to conservativesso that we are a very strong presence going into the convention."

Again, couldn't have said it better myself.