Fateful Final Fight?

Read some news. Big turn out. Can't lose today. I like Mike, I like John. One of 'ems go'na win. And Hill is a dead goose. Good. I can't lose.
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4:50

Ed Morrisey's got guts:

Predictions look easy for today. I'll predict sweeps by both McCain and Obama. For McCain, I'd guess that he wins Virginia by nine, with Huckabee's mini-surge falling a bit short. Maryland will go to McCain by twenty points, meaning McCain will take at least 23 of the state's 37 delegates. He'll take DC's 19 delegates in the winner-take-all contest by at least five points, giving him 105 delegates at night's end to Huckabee's 14, and the gap will increase to almost 600.

Though he has moved the goal posts. Sunday he was predicting a blowout win for McCain in Virginia. I simply don't know, I've only said Virginia wouldn't be a blowout, so I win...? Just to maintain the spirit of the game I'll predict Huck wins Virginia and does surprisingly well in Maryland. Heck, Huck will win DC too.

Actually, nobody knows how it's going to go. The landscape has changed. The big ugly Romney structure is gone and now it's possible to see vistas and a road to somewhere and hope... (not to wax to poetical) but it's an exceptionally different race now than it was just a few days back, with the nominee known but the full message not yet sent. This is a new calculus and the new equilibrium isn't yet established. Todays races will say a great deal about how the rest of the races will go. If Huck does well, the race will go on. If he does poorly (I think he has to win something) perhaps the purpose for his candidacy will disappear. --But it's something that will have to be balanced out as the returns come in. How well do you have to do to be a meaningful message candidate? A win sends a message, but how much message is there in only close?

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5:38
From Geraghty:

Early exit poll data for tonight...

In Maryland, McCain 57 percent, Huckabee 31 percent.

In Virginia, the second wave of data shows an extremely close race, less than a percentage point between McCain and Huckabee.

Aha!

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6:05

7:00PM - Instant call for Obama in Virginia by FOX, CNN and MSNBC. GOP race too close to call. - TOM BEVAN
6:50PM - Polls in Virginia close in 10 minutes. Virginia should be the most interesting contest on both sides. If Huckabee is going to pull off an upset, this would be the place, and with 63 delegates at stake in a winner take all contest, it would be another big win for him. - TOM BEVAN

It's a win for Huck. If he takes the 63 it's a huge win. But if he's so close, coming from thirty points down just four days ago, it's a win too. Obviously voters want him in.

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Saw a statement that 8% who voted in the VA Democrat primary were cross-over Republicans, voting overwhelmingly for Obama. That would be anti-McCain voters not able to vote for Huck but trying to stop Hill.

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6:28
Ha! CNN:

Viginia: Huckabee 56, McCain 37.

Ha! 'Course, that's with only 1% reporting.

6:32: 5%
--Huck 51, McCain 42. Darn. It's getting close. --I note only 3% for Romney. Must all be voting for Obama.

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6:48

:36PM - ABC's Rick Klein expresses the kind of befuddlement that a lot people probably feel about what's going on in VA:

This is a problematic evening early for McCain. He can't putHuckabee away -- it's sort of astounding that Huck keeps winning. Again,this won't make Huckabee the nominee. But how is this guy still winning?

I'm sure that comment would have the Huckster grinning that big, "aw shucks" grin. - TOM BEVAN

Supposedly he also won Republicans by two points, and independents 43%34%. That's from exit polls. If the exit polls hold Huck won.

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CNN: 22% reporting: 47 - 45, Huck. Romney still 3%, Paul 4%.
CNN: 32% reporting: Same.

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This is interesting:

McCain and Huck in Virginia [Byron York]

In the newly-release exit polls on the too-close-to-call race between JohnMcCain and Mike Huckabee in Virginia, Huckabee is winning big among Republicanvoters who call themselves very conservative, and McCain is winning amongeverybody else. The exit polls show McCain beating Huckabee, 64 percent to30 percent, among the 27 percent of the Republican electorate who describethemselves as moderate. McCain wins, 44 to 40, among people – 33 percentof the GOP electorate – who describe themselves as somewhat conservative. But Huckabee wins really, really big, 70 percent to 21 percent, among thelargest single group – the 34 percent who call themselves very conservative. 02/12 07:39 PM

I've always argued that the selfdiscribed "very conservative" are those who listen to talk radio, and talk radio hate McCain. But they hate Huck too? This will have to be considered.

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7:40
Blasted. 55% reporting CNN calls it for McCain, 47% - 45%

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Talk radio scored?

Still More McCain and Huck [Byron York]

The Virginia exit pollsters asked Republican voters if they listened to conservative talk radio. Thirty-one percent said they listened frequently; Huckabee won among them, 56 percent to 32 percent. Twenty-nine percent said they listen occasionally; among them, the race was tied, 44 to 44. Twenty-one percent said they rarely listened; McCain won among them, 49 to 42. And 18 percent said they never listened to conservative talk radio, and McCain won among them 53 to 40.

It does look like talk radio did hurt McCain, and a lot who couldn't vote for McCain went for Huck. Hard to believe, since they hate Huck too, although admitedly I haven't listened for a couple of months. Could be other reasons, but these numbers are consistent with that interpretation.

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8:10
McCain pulling away. 73% reporting: McCain 49%, Huck 43%

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8:35

So it looks like Huck lost, and it looks too like talk radio might have poisoned the well for McCain. Conservatives who couldn't vote for McCain went for largely Huck --this would be that percentage who thought Romney was a conservative, the rest went Democrat and mostly for Obama. But I don't know if this idea will hold up in the exit polls, supposing those questions were asked.

Note: It was my contention only that Huck would do far better than expected. There's still Maryland, where he might get some delegates. But at the moment I'm a little dispirited.

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9:25
McCain ahead by 9%. H'mm, Looks like Ed Morrisey was pulling the strings in this one. Kinda down. Nine points is a solid win given that McCain has such an immense lead in delegates. The intent of the Huckabee campaign isn't to win, but to send a message. But it would be a lot easier if he'd won one of the three, or at least came within two points. Still, Kansas. Three-to-one. If there are states with a large Huck contingent, they deserve a candidate. But there has to be a large Huck contingent.