The Coming Dynamic
There are three states today where Republicans vote: Washington, Louisiana, and Kansas. Louisiana is a closed primary (where only twenty delegates will be determined, and then only if one candidate gets an absolute majority. It's some odd continuation from their earlier caucus and is a system too byzantine to be understood). Washington is an open caucus, Kansas is a closed caucus.
Mitt is out, McCain has the nomination, who's going to bother to vote?
But people do vote, motivated people. What could be the motivation with the nomination already sewn up?
McCain is good on national defense, he's pretty good on fiscal policy. He's gotten criticism but in fact has never brought an ear mark to Arizona, he's never voted for a tax increase. He's pretty good.
How is he on social issues? Guns, gay marriage, abortion, Supreme Court nominations, immigration --and immigration is a social issue, it's not fundamentally an economic or national defense issue-- home schooling, God in the public square, God in the public school? How is he on all these things? What could be the motivation to vote?
It's obvious. He could use a little boost. He could learn that his electorate, the people who basically do like him, do take these matters very seriously. There's only one good reason yet to vote and that's message. There's one candidate who stands strongly on these issues and that's Huck. A vote for Huck sends that message, and that's why I think his numbers are going to go up.
And this is a unique opportunity. The race is over. The party can't be fractured now by splitting the vote between two very different candidates with two very different bases of support. This isn't a vote against McCain, it's merely a boost. And face it, this is important. Evangelicals are a bit of an embarrassment to the elite. "Vote and shut-up." But if the vote is insistent the voice is insistent as well. This is a good time to vote.
I don't know if this is going to happen but it could. If Huck goes to the convention with more delegates than Romney he's got more influence than the elites.
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12:30PM
Kind of hard to even find any notice on the net that Republicans vote today. It's all Clinton and Obama. That's okay. If it does happen that Huck pulls one out of the hat, coming as such an utter surprise, it will make quite a splash. I note, by the way, I do like McCain, I just want to see Huck become "the clear runner-up". I get that phrase from Bill Bradley, who so far is the only one I've found who's even taking note of the vote.
Further speculation:
I think events since Tuesday --actually Wednesday morning, when it became clear that McCain in effect had swept California-- have been so sudden that Romney voters will probably be lost. They won't as yet have determined on a second choice, and won't even bother to vote.
Some McCain supporters won't bother, because why? it's all sewn up. Only Huckabee supporters will be motivated, because their vote still matters. This almost, inadvertently, gives Huckabee a chance to blind-side McCain this particular Saturday. He just won't be prepared for the turnout. --I do expect the turnout will be greatly reduced, but it's proportions will move toward favoring Huck. Some small portion of McCain supporters may even move to Huck. Not out of any displeasure with McCain, but just because it's so clear that if what is desired is that a message be sent, the only messenger available is Huck. (I always forget Ron Paul even exists).
It does seem this Saturday all advantages are to Huck. But this is only in terms of direction of movement. I have no idea what their present standings are because there are no polls.
I do note there's a national Newsweek poll just out that shows McCain 51, Huckabee 32. That's a fifteen point jump for Huck. That just means people still consider him a factor, whatever might be their reasons.
For Dems: Obama is expected to sweep. That's good.
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3:55PM
Ha! Am I the world's most brilliant man or not!?
Will read a bit more but have to get some sleep. --May have beaten McCain 3-1. That argues the dynamic is at work. --By my argument this is a national phenomena so he should do exceptionally well in Washington and Louisiana as well.
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This is funny:
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9:46
Numbers looking better:
LA: Huck 48, McCain 38 (59%)
WA: Huckabee 27, McCain 23, Paul 21 (37%)
Could be a Huck sweep.
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11:55
Results really coming in slow. From CNN: The former Arkansas governor beat McCain in Kansas by nearly a 3-1 margin. Huckabee also was leading in Louisiana. In Washington state, the Republican caucuses were too close to call.
-------------------
2:10AM
Narrow win in Louisiana, narrow loss in Washington.
Mitt is out, McCain has the nomination, who's going to bother to vote?
But people do vote, motivated people. What could be the motivation with the nomination already sewn up?
McCain is good on national defense, he's pretty good on fiscal policy. He's gotten criticism but in fact has never brought an ear mark to Arizona, he's never voted for a tax increase. He's pretty good.
How is he on social issues? Guns, gay marriage, abortion, Supreme Court nominations, immigration --and immigration is a social issue, it's not fundamentally an economic or national defense issue-- home schooling, God in the public square, God in the public school? How is he on all these things? What could be the motivation to vote?
It's obvious. He could use a little boost. He could learn that his electorate, the people who basically do like him, do take these matters very seriously. There's only one good reason yet to vote and that's message. There's one candidate who stands strongly on these issues and that's Huck. A vote for Huck sends that message, and that's why I think his numbers are going to go up.
And this is a unique opportunity. The race is over. The party can't be fractured now by splitting the vote between two very different candidates with two very different bases of support. This isn't a vote against McCain, it's merely a boost. And face it, this is important. Evangelicals are a bit of an embarrassment to the elite. "Vote and shut-up." But if the vote is insistent the voice is insistent as well. This is a good time to vote.
I don't know if this is going to happen but it could. If Huck goes to the convention with more delegates than Romney he's got more influence than the elites.
------------------
12:30PM
Kind of hard to even find any notice on the net that Republicans vote today. It's all Clinton and Obama. That's okay. If it does happen that Huck pulls one out of the hat, coming as such an utter surprise, it will make quite a splash. I note, by the way, I do like McCain, I just want to see Huck become "the clear runner-up". I get that phrase from Bill Bradley, who so far is the only one I've found who's even taking note of the vote.
08:17 am PST — Game Day: Semi-Super Saturday
Several significant contests today in the deadlocked Democratic presidential race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. While on the Republican side, presumptive nominee John McCain does some mopping up while Mike Huckabee, coming off a strong Super Tuesday showing in the South, moves to roll up more delegates and finish as the clear Republican runner-up.
Further speculation:
I think events since Tuesday --actually Wednesday morning, when it became clear that McCain in effect had swept California-- have been so sudden that Romney voters will probably be lost. They won't as yet have determined on a second choice, and won't even bother to vote.
Some McCain supporters won't bother, because why? it's all sewn up. Only Huckabee supporters will be motivated, because their vote still matters. This almost, inadvertently, gives Huckabee a chance to blind-side McCain this particular Saturday. He just won't be prepared for the turnout. --I do expect the turnout will be greatly reduced, but it's proportions will move toward favoring Huck. Some small portion of McCain supporters may even move to Huck. Not out of any displeasure with McCain, but just because it's so clear that if what is desired is that a message be sent, the only messenger available is Huck. (I always forget Ron Paul even exists).
It does seem this Saturday all advantages are to Huck. But this is only in terms of direction of movement. I have no idea what their present standings are because there are no polls.
I do note there's a national Newsweek poll just out that shows McCain 51, Huckabee 32. That's a fifteen point jump for Huck. That just means people still consider him a factor, whatever might be their reasons.
For Dems: Obama is expected to sweep. That's good.
-------------------
3:55PM
Ha! Am I the world's most brilliant man or not!?
Huckabee wins Kansas Republican presidential race
OVERLAND PARK, Kansas (Reuters) - Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the Kansas contest on Saturday to choose a Republican U.S. presidential candidate, chalking up another victory after a strong showing in the South earlier in the week, U.S. media projected
Will read a bit more but have to get some sleep. --May have beaten McCain 3-1. That argues the dynamic is at work. --By my argument this is a national phenomena so he should do exceptionally well in Washington and Louisiana as well.
--------------------
This is funny:
Texas Gov. Perry Asks Huckabee to Drop OutThis dovetails with one of my own observations: If McCain gets angry and slams Huckabee he loses support big time, because anger is seen as one of his flaws, but if Huckabee keeps it light and has fun that's one of his great strengths, and more people will join him just because it has become a race that is fun.
COLLEGE PARK, MD. -- Gov. Rick Perry. R-Texas, who has endorsed John McCain,called Mike Huckabee on Friday asking him to drop out of the race, according to a senior Huckabee campaign aide. Huckabee declined Perry's request....
"I'd like to think the Republican Party is mature enough, big enough, and smart enough that it actually knows competition brings excellence. And the lack of competiton brings mediocrity," Huckabee said.....
"If we're really serious about taking it all the way to November, we better have a candidate who's truly battle-tested. So this nonsense about how I should step aside and have a cakewalk all the way to the election, that's crazy. Unless they were all to step aside and let me have a cakewalk, then that would be a fine thing. But otherwise, I can see no value in that at all."
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9:46
Numbers looking better:
LA: Huck 48, McCain 38 (59%)
WA: Huckabee 27, McCain 23, Paul 21 (37%)
Could be a Huck sweep.
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11:55
Results really coming in slow. From CNN: The former Arkansas governor beat McCain in Kansas by nearly a 3-1 margin. Huckabee also was leading in Louisiana. In Washington state, the Republican caucuses were too close to call.
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2:10AM
Narrow win in Louisiana, narrow loss in Washington.
posted by mouse at 6:11 AM
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