It's Deju Goliath All Over Again
I sure have come to like that Huck guy. I don't know how long he's going to stay in but I sure do appreciate seeing him put up the good fight.
Mr. Mitt has now joined forces with Mr. MaC. The Mitt gave the MaC his 282 delegates. How gracious of him... to give what was not his. He "released" his delegates. While there's debate as to what that means, it's possible he's released all 282 to vote for Huck if they want to.
The caucus delegates, about 176 of them, haven't even been named yet. The "pledged" delegates --those won in primaries, about 106 --are now free, at least in Massachusetts and Michigan, about 45-- to vote however they want, and that's probably true for the remaining states as well. If the Mitt had been patient he would have controlled all 282 at the convention, now he'll control 61 at most, and probably none. For fifty millions of his own dollars he sure didn't get much.
Of course, he is on the band wagon now, and since McCain is going to be the nominee I suppose it makes sense to hop on while you can at least pretend you've made a contribution. You can pretend, even if in fact you've potentially given Huck all or most of the delegates that cost you so very much.
Let's compute the best case scenario for Huckabee. He's got 234. Add 286, that's 520. Add Louisiana and Washington (best case! I don't believe any have been assigned) that's 38 more. Total: 558 to John's 724. It's starting to look like a race.
Now, I don't expect that going to happen and I'm not uncomfortable with McCain as the nominee, but this is politics, who knows what's down the pike? Mitt has in stunning stupidity given up control of 282 delegates, locked and put away. They're free now, who knows what might come up?
It should be noted that McCain does not have momentum, he has support. More people will vote for him than will vote for Huck. That's a good thing. It's good to have a probable nominee who can draw from independents and moderates. But I note for the next many contests those numbers are going to go down. McCain v Huck excites nobody, but Obama v Godzilla excites everybody. Anybody who can is going to throw their two bits into that contest, and John is going to lose a lot of bits he's come to depend on.
There's no way to know the final numbers, but the specifics help Huck. --And there's this as well: If McCain can't put Huck away in short order, a lot of people are going to start taking a second look. Everybody likes a scrappy underdog, especially such a pleasant one.
Wisconsin is big. Huck was really hurt in the Potomac states. A win coming off of a triple loss would be nice, but what he does have to do is at least beat expectations. That might not be too hard, since the coronation is now presumed.
Mr. Mitt has now joined forces with Mr. MaC. The Mitt gave the MaC his 282 delegates. How gracious of him... to give what was not his. He "released" his delegates. While there's debate as to what that means, it's possible he's released all 282 to vote for Huck if they want to.
The caucus delegates, about 176 of them, haven't even been named yet. The "pledged" delegates --those won in primaries, about 106 --are now free, at least in Massachusetts and Michigan, about 45-- to vote however they want, and that's probably true for the remaining states as well. If the Mitt had been patient he would have controlled all 282 at the convention, now he'll control 61 at most, and probably none. For fifty millions of his own dollars he sure didn't get much.
Of course, he is on the band wagon now, and since McCain is going to be the nominee I suppose it makes sense to hop on while you can at least pretend you've made a contribution. You can pretend, even if in fact you've potentially given Huck all or most of the delegates that cost you so very much.
Let's compute the best case scenario for Huckabee. He's got 234. Add 286, that's 520. Add Louisiana and Washington (best case! I don't believe any have been assigned) that's 38 more. Total: 558 to John's 724. It's starting to look like a race.
Now, I don't expect that going to happen and I'm not uncomfortable with McCain as the nominee, but this is politics, who knows what's down the pike? Mitt has in stunning stupidity given up control of 282 delegates, locked and put away. They're free now, who knows what might come up?
It should be noted that McCain does not have momentum, he has support. More people will vote for him than will vote for Huck. That's a good thing. It's good to have a probable nominee who can draw from independents and moderates. But I note for the next many contests those numbers are going to go down. McCain v Huck excites nobody, but Obama v Godzilla excites everybody. Anybody who can is going to throw their two bits into that contest, and John is going to lose a lot of bits he's come to depend on.
There's no way to know the final numbers, but the specifics help Huck. --And there's this as well: If McCain can't put Huck away in short order, a lot of people are going to start taking a second look. Everybody likes a scrappy underdog, especially such a pleasant one.
Wisconsin is big. Huck was really hurt in the Potomac states. A win coming off of a triple loss would be nice, but what he does have to do is at least beat expectations. That might not be too hard, since the coronation is now presumed.
posted by mouse at 7:32 AM
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