Oregon?
Did West Virginia matter? I say it did.
I keep waiting for Obama to implode. I can't see that he's got anything going for him other than that he's a "Not Hillary", and a black guy with a grin. He's also a vapor brain, a radical, a race seeped introspectionist --and thus as the first "post-partisan post-racial" very modern black man-- a liar and a hypocrite. And thin-skinned, hyper ego-inflated, and a pansy as well, just to randomly mention a few additional negatives.
My opinion: Four months ago I thought he was a simple soul but basically a nice guy who was honest. I think I note a change in my judgment; I can't believe other people aren't having a change in their judgment as well.
Normally, when discussing Republicans, I presume any change in my judgment is going to be the prevailing dynamic of the campaign. That tends to work well enough because as a Republican I'm pretty much in the middle, what happens to me happens to others. But these are Democrats I'm trying to consider. This is a different species.
I'm going to presume this: I'm going to presume some Democrats have emotions, and that not all of those emotions are ideological. I think this is safe. I think there probably is no such thing as a Democrat argument that's not ideological, but I do think there are non-ideological emotions that aren't that different from mine. And anyway, in this intraparty primary between two lefties, what's to be ideological about? This isn't "Any lie will do because the enemy is a Republican", this is tweedle against twiddle, so judgment can only be based on personal distinctions. It's pretty clear to me which one of the candidates is smarter, as well as which one it is who has balls. Yet it's the other who gets all the fawning attention.
It does seem to me that after awhile that gets annoying. There's no rational person who doesn't understand who would have the better capacity to govern, yet these rational people are pressured to abandon their brains and fall on their knees and worship blackness. For a lot of people that's not a worship they find terribly satisfying. That's why I think West Virginia was important. Every demographic in that state rebelled against the new pope. Once you have apostasy it can catch fire, and I think that's what may have happened. West Virginians --not so much hicks as Jacksonian frontiersman-- made clear it's okay for white folk to tell a black guy to shove it up his nose.
When the black guy in question is a snot-nose, this is wholesome. Hillary by two.
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Note: A friend just called. Long chat. He wanted to prove to me he wasn't a racist for disliking Obama. It had just occurred to him that if Collin Powell were running he would vote for him in a heart beat. That this as a new thought to him I can believe because he's a Democrat and so possibly had never before considered that option. That he would in fact vote for Powell I can believe because I know how much he respects personal courage and integrity, and that's Powell. What's interesting is that he guiltily felt he had to justify his dislike. I have no such problem. Obama is a drip. Once it become acceptable to call a drip a drip Obama's numbers will drop.
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To make a more standard argument:
--At the end of January in Oregon Hillary still had a substantial lead over Obama, it seems to me it was something like 65 - 35. She's gotten bad press since but Hillary is Hillary, she hasn't changed. If people liked her once they can like her again.
--The most recent ARG poll puts the numbers at: Obama 50, Hillary 45; 5% undecided. By the Bradley effect that means Obama has less than 50%, Hillary more than 45. --Late deciders go very heavily for Hillary. That puts her very close. Of those polled who had already sent in their ballots (about 25% ?) the numbers were split evenly, 49 - 49. Again, by the Bradley effect, that means that in the early going Hillary is in the lead.
Or course, polls are sometimes off. But I would say things look very good for Hillary. The demographics do favor Obama, but it's fundamentally an all white state, and I don't know that the dynamics favor Obama because he is running a don't-criticize-me-I'm-a-black campaign, and that's exactly the kind of campaign that could break on racial lines.
I keep waiting for Obama to implode. I can't see that he's got anything going for him other than that he's a "Not Hillary", and a black guy with a grin. He's also a vapor brain, a radical, a race seeped introspectionist --and thus as the first "post-partisan post-racial" very modern black man-- a liar and a hypocrite. And thin-skinned, hyper ego-inflated, and a pansy as well, just to randomly mention a few additional negatives.
My opinion: Four months ago I thought he was a simple soul but basically a nice guy who was honest. I think I note a change in my judgment; I can't believe other people aren't having a change in their judgment as well.
Normally, when discussing Republicans, I presume any change in my judgment is going to be the prevailing dynamic of the campaign. That tends to work well enough because as a Republican I'm pretty much in the middle, what happens to me happens to others. But these are Democrats I'm trying to consider. This is a different species.
I'm going to presume this: I'm going to presume some Democrats have emotions, and that not all of those emotions are ideological. I think this is safe. I think there probably is no such thing as a Democrat argument that's not ideological, but I do think there are non-ideological emotions that aren't that different from mine. And anyway, in this intraparty primary between two lefties, what's to be ideological about? This isn't "Any lie will do because the enemy is a Republican", this is tweedle against twiddle, so judgment can only be based on personal distinctions. It's pretty clear to me which one of the candidates is smarter, as well as which one it is who has balls. Yet it's the other who gets all the fawning attention.
It does seem to me that after awhile that gets annoying. There's no rational person who doesn't understand who would have the better capacity to govern, yet these rational people are pressured to abandon their brains and fall on their knees and worship blackness. For a lot of people that's not a worship they find terribly satisfying. That's why I think West Virginia was important. Every demographic in that state rebelled against the new pope. Once you have apostasy it can catch fire, and I think that's what may have happened. West Virginians --not so much hicks as Jacksonian frontiersman-- made clear it's okay for white folk to tell a black guy to shove it up his nose.
When the black guy in question is a snot-nose, this is wholesome. Hillary by two.
-----------
Note: A friend just called. Long chat. He wanted to prove to me he wasn't a racist for disliking Obama. It had just occurred to him that if Collin Powell were running he would vote for him in a heart beat. That this as a new thought to him I can believe because he's a Democrat and so possibly had never before considered that option. That he would in fact vote for Powell I can believe because I know how much he respects personal courage and integrity, and that's Powell. What's interesting is that he guiltily felt he had to justify his dislike. I have no such problem. Obama is a drip. Once it become acceptable to call a drip a drip Obama's numbers will drop.
-----------
To make a more standard argument:
--At the end of January in Oregon Hillary still had a substantial lead over Obama, it seems to me it was something like 65 - 35. She's gotten bad press since but Hillary is Hillary, she hasn't changed. If people liked her once they can like her again.
--The most recent ARG poll puts the numbers at: Obama 50, Hillary 45; 5% undecided. By the Bradley effect that means Obama has less than 50%, Hillary more than 45. --Late deciders go very heavily for Hillary. That puts her very close. Of those polled who had already sent in their ballots (about 25% ?) the numbers were split evenly, 49 - 49. Again, by the Bradley effect, that means that in the early going Hillary is in the lead.
Or course, polls are sometimes off. But I would say things look very good for Hillary. The demographics do favor Obama, but it's fundamentally an all white state, and I don't know that the dynamics favor Obama because he is running a don't-criticize-me-I'm-a-black campaign, and that's exactly the kind of campaign that could break on racial lines.
posted by mouse at 11:47 PM
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