The Pudding...
4:05 PM, is not yet in the bowl. I haven't even yet gotten a firm handle on whether the turnout is very heavy or not. And the final polls are all over. Barack by two in Indiana, Hillary by twelve. In NC Barack solidly in double digits, or maybe ahead only by four. --There do tend to be a lot of undecideds...
I will note my very strong prejudice that I want Hillary to be the one to knock Barack out of the race. I want all the bitterness to be intraparty, and not aimed at the Republicans. And I do maintain hope for a split in the black vote, which would declaw people like the Reverend Wright. It certainly would be wholesome and at this point I do see it as possible, because faith has now entered the mix, and it's not now merely politics. There doesn't have to be much initial change for it to be established as a dynamic.
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7:17,
Mixed and poured but not yet taken its set; no numbers. Presumedly NC for Obama, and I presume Indiana for Hillary, though it hasn't been called. No network projected margin for Obama in NC. --It does appear things are going to turn out about as folks projected purely in consideration of demographics. That's pretty disappointing. --I'm yet sticking yet with my sense of the dynamisms, at least until I see some numbers. The most important prediction is some black split on Obama. The exits I think have it 92 - 8. If that's true it's terrible. But I wonder if there might be some Bradly effect here, that a black won't tell a pollster he didn't vote for a black? --Numbers later.
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8:15
Going to hang it up for awhile. Numbers coming in very slowly, about 57% of precincts for Indiana, about 26% NC. Obama is way ahead in North Carolina, but I believe that will tighten considerably as the outlying districts report. Indiana looks like it will be a mid single digit win for Hillary. --I continue to presume the exits are off for NC.
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8:45
50% Precincts NC: Obama 57%; Hllary 42%. This has closed from I think in the twenties.
Indiana, 73% precincts: Hillary 52.5; Barack 47.5. About what I had expected 30 minutes ago.
I will note my very strong prejudice that I want Hillary to be the one to knock Barack out of the race. I want all the bitterness to be intraparty, and not aimed at the Republicans. And I do maintain hope for a split in the black vote, which would declaw people like the Reverend Wright. It certainly would be wholesome and at this point I do see it as possible, because faith has now entered the mix, and it's not now merely politics. There doesn't have to be much initial change for it to be established as a dynamic.
-------------
7:17,
Mixed and poured but not yet taken its set; no numbers. Presumedly NC for Obama, and I presume Indiana for Hillary, though it hasn't been called. No network projected margin for Obama in NC. --It does appear things are going to turn out about as folks projected purely in consideration of demographics. That's pretty disappointing. --I'm yet sticking yet with my sense of the dynamisms, at least until I see some numbers. The most important prediction is some black split on Obama. The exits I think have it 92 - 8. If that's true it's terrible. But I wonder if there might be some Bradly effect here, that a black won't tell a pollster he didn't vote for a black? --Numbers later.
-------------
8:15
Going to hang it up for awhile. Numbers coming in very slowly, about 57% of precincts for Indiana, about 26% NC. Obama is way ahead in North Carolina, but I believe that will tighten considerably as the outlying districts report. Indiana looks like it will be a mid single digit win for Hillary. --I continue to presume the exits are off for NC.
----------------
8:45
50% Precincts NC: Obama 57%; Hllary 42%. This has closed from I think in the twenties.
Indiana, 73% precincts: Hillary 52.5; Barack 47.5. About what I had expected 30 minutes ago.
posted by mouse at 2:12 PM
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