Day After Despond
It's impressive how "over" the race is for me. I of course want McCain to do well because he is man with virtues; and I want to see Hillary and Barack continue to claw at each other and create as much intra-party ill-will as possible, --but my great hopes for a Huckabee surge just didn't happen, so as I've said before: From now on it's just politics.
On the Democrat side Barack's momentum is over. A messiah can not have a set-back. So now he's just a politician, in fact just a junior hack from Chicago. Hillary and the press will eviscerate his holy image. From now on he'll only win in states with very large black populations. He may even have some difficulties in caucus states (Wyoming is Tuesday; I don't know if Hillary can get her act together that fast). She will win Pennsylvania huge and will enter the convention with momentum, and next to her Barack will be green and small and wilted. But he will have the delegate lead, and his core will not wilt and they are not green; they in their heart-of-hearts are the hate-Hillary-crowd and they're virulent. There will be a fight, the superdelegates will narrowly decide for Hillary as the more electable; blacks will feel disenfranchised and will sit out the election, and aged Yuppies will vote Nader. This will give McCain a shot.
Huck will support McCain. All conservatives will vote McCain, and if he has some care and delicacy they may even knock on doors and be enthusiastic.
--I don't think any of this is wild speculation, I think it's all pretty obvious. --Changing "facts on the ground" of course can change dynamisms; there is no downside to punditry prognostications.
Note:
--Huck's stature in the party will rise as he campaigns for McCain, because he will be identified not by his core constituency but by his function, which will be that of party unifier. Nothing will change between Huck and those who most powerfully support him, but the rest of the party will see him as larger than they saw him before.
--There will be a bump in energy among those who powerfully support Barack. The base is angry, and more angry now than Tuesday morning. They will work hard. For a short while he'll probably even bring in yet greater contributions. But among those who simply thought they had found salvation there will be a fade in numbers, and that will continue and continue as he's seen more and more just to be a man, and a rather prickly one at that.
--Hilary's supporters will be energized as well, because they see the juggernaut has been broken, --and the press, who helped create that juggernaut, will now help destroy it. Time to "get real". They'll now be the worldly, cynical, "objective" men they've all along considered themselves to be; this is their self identification and satisfaction.
--Poor Obama.
On the Democrat side Barack's momentum is over. A messiah can not have a set-back. So now he's just a politician, in fact just a junior hack from Chicago. Hillary and the press will eviscerate his holy image. From now on he'll only win in states with very large black populations. He may even have some difficulties in caucus states (Wyoming is Tuesday; I don't know if Hillary can get her act together that fast). She will win Pennsylvania huge and will enter the convention with momentum, and next to her Barack will be green and small and wilted. But he will have the delegate lead, and his core will not wilt and they are not green; they in their heart-of-hearts are the hate-Hillary-crowd and they're virulent. There will be a fight, the superdelegates will narrowly decide for Hillary as the more electable; blacks will feel disenfranchised and will sit out the election, and aged Yuppies will vote Nader. This will give McCain a shot.
Huck will support McCain. All conservatives will vote McCain, and if he has some care and delicacy they may even knock on doors and be enthusiastic.
--I don't think any of this is wild speculation, I think it's all pretty obvious. --Changing "facts on the ground" of course can change dynamisms; there is no downside to punditry prognostications.
Note:
--Huck's stature in the party will rise as he campaigns for McCain, because he will be identified not by his core constituency but by his function, which will be that of party unifier. Nothing will change between Huck and those who most powerfully support him, but the rest of the party will see him as larger than they saw him before.
--There will be a bump in energy among those who powerfully support Barack. The base is angry, and more angry now than Tuesday morning. They will work hard. For a short while he'll probably even bring in yet greater contributions. But among those who simply thought they had found salvation there will be a fade in numbers, and that will continue and continue as he's seen more and more just to be a man, and a rather prickly one at that.
--Hilary's supporters will be energized as well, because they see the juggernaut has been broken, --and the press, who helped create that juggernaut, will now help destroy it. Time to "get real". They'll now be the worldly, cynical, "objective" men they've all along considered themselves to be; this is their self identification and satisfaction.
--Poor Obama.
posted by mouse at 5:54 AM
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