Applecart Upset?
In keeping with my intent to record my predictions --so that I can't later more favorably misremember my perspicacity-- I call Indiana plus ten for Hillary, and North Carolina plus two for her as well.
The reasoning is pretty simple, Hillary is a well known witch, her negatives can't get worse; Obama is a poorly known, very pleasant fraud, his negatives can only get worse as he becomes better known. He's had a very bad couple of weeks, with his pastor popping off, and this just at a time primary voters are most seriously focusing on the candidates. Hillary has not had a bad two weeks. She's been holding steady, has been pretty good humored, has been campaigning hard, --and most importantly, has had noting to do with the Obama self inflicted wounds. She can't be attacked as negative. The conclusion then is that Obama has been hurt, Hillary has been helped.
The greatly interesting race is North Carolina, and the most interesting demographic there is not the white working class, strongly swinging toward Hillary, but the black voter, presumedly 85% to 90% in the tank for Obama. Are they?
It's my presumption that there are black congregations in North Carolina that are actually Christian. It can not be a happy discovery for them to learn that their great black pride for president, such a pleasant seeming fellow, sat in a pew for twenty years listening to hate being spewed under the coloration of Christian faith. That's an abomination of the faith, and it immensely compromises the congregant who apparently found that message suitable for himself, his wife, and his daughters.
I have no numbers, but I would bet there are more blacks who take their faith seriously --its gentleness, it's love of neighbor, its aspiration toward moral self-improvement and personal salvation-- than there are those who consider it merely as a means to a vicious political struggle. I rather expect that the "angry black church" is pretty much just an inner city very liberal church; and I do think that a properly offended faith is probably the one power strong enough to counter what would be otherwise a justifiable pride of race in supporting an apparently good man as a viable aspirant to the presidency of the United States.
What percentage of the black vote did Jesse Jackson get? How large was the black turnout? I don't have the numbers but I know the answer is: less; and less. Barrack is heading in the direction of Jesse.
So in North Carolina the black vote will be somewhat depressed, and less favorable towards Barack than normal. The split now in the polls is fairly close, Obama always slightly over polls and he anyway has never been over 50%. And there is now a new dynamic, created by Obama and in opposition to Obama. I think this dynamic is powerful. I see a possibility that the more constant Hillary can profit from this dynamic and pull off a victory.
Note: It would be of extreme value to everybody if the black vote split. This race has become about race. If the black vote split it would become a race about personalities and beliefs. That would be far more wholesome.
The reasoning is pretty simple, Hillary is a well known witch, her negatives can't get worse; Obama is a poorly known, very pleasant fraud, his negatives can only get worse as he becomes better known. He's had a very bad couple of weeks, with his pastor popping off, and this just at a time primary voters are most seriously focusing on the candidates. Hillary has not had a bad two weeks. She's been holding steady, has been pretty good humored, has been campaigning hard, --and most importantly, has had noting to do with the Obama self inflicted wounds. She can't be attacked as negative. The conclusion then is that Obama has been hurt, Hillary has been helped.
The greatly interesting race is North Carolina, and the most interesting demographic there is not the white working class, strongly swinging toward Hillary, but the black voter, presumedly 85% to 90% in the tank for Obama. Are they?
It's my presumption that there are black congregations in North Carolina that are actually Christian. It can not be a happy discovery for them to learn that their great black pride for president, such a pleasant seeming fellow, sat in a pew for twenty years listening to hate being spewed under the coloration of Christian faith. That's an abomination of the faith, and it immensely compromises the congregant who apparently found that message suitable for himself, his wife, and his daughters.
I have no numbers, but I would bet there are more blacks who take their faith seriously --its gentleness, it's love of neighbor, its aspiration toward moral self-improvement and personal salvation-- than there are those who consider it merely as a means to a vicious political struggle. I rather expect that the "angry black church" is pretty much just an inner city very liberal church; and I do think that a properly offended faith is probably the one power strong enough to counter what would be otherwise a justifiable pride of race in supporting an apparently good man as a viable aspirant to the presidency of the United States.
What percentage of the black vote did Jesse Jackson get? How large was the black turnout? I don't have the numbers but I know the answer is: less; and less. Barrack is heading in the direction of Jesse.
So in North Carolina the black vote will be somewhat depressed, and less favorable towards Barack than normal. The split now in the polls is fairly close, Obama always slightly over polls and he anyway has never been over 50%. And there is now a new dynamic, created by Obama and in opposition to Obama. I think this dynamic is powerful. I see a possibility that the more constant Hillary can profit from this dynamic and pull off a victory.
Note: It would be of extreme value to everybody if the black vote split. This race has become about race. If the black vote split it would become a race about personalities and beliefs. That would be far more wholesome.
posted by mouse at 10:06 PM
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