Pennsylvania Indifferent
Following what's being said in the blogs, but oddly indifferent. Exit polls seem strangely non-informative this primary.
I'm surprised I'm indifferent, I know exactly what I want. I want Hillary to absolutely cream Obama. If that happens the race continues and more information comes out about Obama. I've developed an extraordinary skepticism of the guy, and I would like the expose' to come from the Clinton people, rather than from Republicans.
I'm staying with my prediction of a fourteen point margin for Clinton. On balance, nothing I've read in the last hour supports that --or refutes it; just too much that's uncertain, but It would be a nice result.
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WASHINGTON (AP) - Women and older voters came out in force Tuesday in Pennsylvania's presidential primary, encouraging signs for Hillary Rodham Clinton as she sought a win to sustain her campaign.
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7:14
McCain Wins GOP Primary!
No call yet on Hillary/Obama
Fox is saying it's "too close to call." I suppose that's possible. Huge numbers of new voters and young voters. There probably are no certain models to predict their turnout, and since exit polling has so often been so wrong, and since how this turns out is very important psychologically to the race, perhaps they're just sitting on their guesses until a lot of real numbers come in. I can't imagine that Hillary doesn't win, but perhaps they don't want to say anything until there's have some solid sense of the margin.
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7:39
Clinton 67, Obama 33.
Now that's what I call a wipe-out!
One percent in.
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UPDATE: (From Geraghty referencing Fox):
8:46
Fox News calls Pennsylvania for Hillary.
No numbers. They're waiting to weight the exit polls against actual numbers. It seems there's a presumption that the exit polls will be off in a consistent enough fashion so that if some can be weighted against actual votes, then the rest can be used to predict actual numbers. One presumes some voters lie about whom they just voted for?
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9:10
Numbers are looking good. 42% reporting, 55 -- 45 Clinton, according to Drudge, and that would be with most of Philadephia County having reported, which is Obama's only really strong county. So as the night goes on it looks very stron for Hillary.
From Geraghty:
I think this is better than anybody expected. Also, from the tone of comments I've read (an uncertain thing) I get the impression that a lot of the media actually expected Obama to stage an upset, which might explain some of the reluctance to declare a winner: They just couldn't believe the numbers they were seeing.
I'm surprised I'm indifferent, I know exactly what I want. I want Hillary to absolutely cream Obama. If that happens the race continues and more information comes out about Obama. I've developed an extraordinary skepticism of the guy, and I would like the expose' to come from the Clinton people, rather than from Republicans.
I'm staying with my prediction of a fourteen point margin for Clinton. On balance, nothing I've read in the last hour supports that --or refutes it; just too much that's uncertain, but It would be a nice result.
----------------------
WASHINGTON (AP) - Women and older voters came out in force Tuesday in Pennsylvania's presidential primary, encouraging signs for Hillary Rodham Clinton as she sought a win to sustain her campaign.
------------
7:14
McCain Wins GOP Primary!
No call yet on Hillary/Obama
Fox is saying it's "too close to call." I suppose that's possible. Huge numbers of new voters and young voters. There probably are no certain models to predict their turnout, and since exit polling has so often been so wrong, and since how this turns out is very important psychologically to the race, perhaps they're just sitting on their guesses until a lot of real numbers come in. I can't imagine that Hillary doesn't win, but perhaps they don't want to say anything until there's have some solid sense of the margin.
------------
7:39
Clinton 67, Obama 33.
Now that's what I call a wipe-out!
One percent in.
------------
UPDATE: (From Geraghty referencing Fox):
Hume notes that they're "very worried" about the accuracy of the exit poll data that they're getting. But so far, she is up about 6 percent in their numbers.-----------
8:46
Fox News calls Pennsylvania for Hillary.
No numbers. They're waiting to weight the exit polls against actual numbers. It seems there's a presumption that the exit polls will be off in a consistent enough fashion so that if some can be weighted against actual votes, then the rest can be used to predict actual numbers. One presumes some voters lie about whom they just voted for?
-----------------
9:10
Numbers are looking good. 42% reporting, 55 -- 45 Clinton, according to Drudge, and that would be with most of Philadephia County having reported, which is Obama's only really strong county. So as the night goes on it looks very stron for Hillary.
From Geraghty:
UPDATE: The King Number-Cruncher, the great Michael Barone, says that if Hillary ends up winning with 160,000 votes (his back-of-the-envelope margin), and you throw in the results of Michigan and Florida (even though Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan, just "undecided"), she actually takes the popular vote lead.
I think this is better than anybody expected. Also, from the tone of comments I've read (an uncertain thing) I get the impression that a lot of the media actually expected Obama to stage an upset, which might explain some of the reluctance to declare a winner: They just couldn't believe the numbers they were seeing.
posted by mouse at 6:56 PM
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