West Virginia?
In keeping with my practice of embarrassing myself, I predict: Hillary wins West Virginia. With a walloping margin. And with a walloping turnout.
It's only this last that's uncertain. Who's gong to bother to turn out to vote when the race has already been decided? And even on the safer question of margin, who's gong to vote for Hillary when they can vote for the winner?
Educated opinion differs. Normally, when there's a clear winner in the making, support swings solidly behind him. After all, he must be good, otherwise why should so many others support him? And of course the turn out is light because who needs to go to the trouble of casting a meaningless vote?
But who knows what the dynamics are now, with the black candidate supported by 93% of blacks, and the white woman of the same party --once popular-- now supported by only 7% of that same black voting block? That seems awfully racial, especially since that black candidate's political accomplishments seem only marginally more than those of your average grocery store clerk. It might be that all the hoopla over His Highness has come to seem offensive.
But who knows...
The problem with my pulling for Hillary over Obama is that I don't like either of them. I do want Hillary to win because I'm Republican and I want to see a fight in Denver and at the end of the season I want her to be a steam roller. But she wasn't in North Carolina, she wasn't in Indiana. No boil, no steam. What's the possibility she's going to create some heat in West Virginia?
I don't see it happening, but that doesn't mean things aren't hot. The massive, non-critical support for such a marginal black man as Obama is something that's a kind of fuel; and the fawning of the MSM and their declaration that the race is over and that West Virginian's are hicks is more than a spark.
If there is a very large turnout for Hillary it means there is a very great deal of ill-will.
That will be interesting. The party doesn't want to lose the black vote by "stealing" the nomination from Obama, but how much of the white vote do they want to lose if indeed the resentment towards Obama is immense?
I don't know the answer because it's a matter of numbers and intensity and close-vested thought, but this contest is now a racial divide and there's no way to pretend it's not.
I do think it's the black vote that has made it racial. Ninety-three percent Obama support after Reverend Wright is racial voting (91%?). Racial voting engenders racial response. If West Virginia goes 80% Clinton it's a result blacks have earned. We may be having our "racial conversation" through the ballot box.
But I don't know.
It's only this last that's uncertain. Who's gong to bother to turn out to vote when the race has already been decided? And even on the safer question of margin, who's gong to vote for Hillary when they can vote for the winner?
Educated opinion differs. Normally, when there's a clear winner in the making, support swings solidly behind him. After all, he must be good, otherwise why should so many others support him? And of course the turn out is light because who needs to go to the trouble of casting a meaningless vote?
But who knows what the dynamics are now, with the black candidate supported by 93% of blacks, and the white woman of the same party --once popular-- now supported by only 7% of that same black voting block? That seems awfully racial, especially since that black candidate's political accomplishments seem only marginally more than those of your average grocery store clerk. It might be that all the hoopla over His Highness has come to seem offensive.
But who knows...
The problem with my pulling for Hillary over Obama is that I don't like either of them. I do want Hillary to win because I'm Republican and I want to see a fight in Denver and at the end of the season I want her to be a steam roller. But she wasn't in North Carolina, she wasn't in Indiana. No boil, no steam. What's the possibility she's going to create some heat in West Virginia?
I don't see it happening, but that doesn't mean things aren't hot. The massive, non-critical support for such a marginal black man as Obama is something that's a kind of fuel; and the fawning of the MSM and their declaration that the race is over and that West Virginian's are hicks is more than a spark.
If there is a very large turnout for Hillary it means there is a very great deal of ill-will.
That will be interesting. The party doesn't want to lose the black vote by "stealing" the nomination from Obama, but how much of the white vote do they want to lose if indeed the resentment towards Obama is immense?
I don't know the answer because it's a matter of numbers and intensity and close-vested thought, but this contest is now a racial divide and there's no way to pretend it's not.
I do think it's the black vote that has made it racial. Ninety-three percent Obama support after Reverend Wright is racial voting (91%?). Racial voting engenders racial response. If West Virginia goes 80% Clinton it's a result blacks have earned. We may be having our "racial conversation" through the ballot box.
But I don't know.
posted by mouse at 8:56 PM
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