Our National Conversation
Some thoughts on the West Virginia white-racist-hick-vote. No news I've read yet, I don't know if turnout is heavy or light.
This primary has no significance except as part of the "national conversation on race." It will pass as insignificant, a slightly off-color remark, unless the result is both large in margin and massive in turnout. Turnout may be down in part simply because Barack didn't campaign there. He's the catalyst. He hasn't ignored that state as a concession, he's ignoring it first to delegitimize it as a contest, and secondly to cut his loss; if he stays away the statement will have less force than if he campaigns and energizes his opposition.
I do think it would be best for the country if the Democrats did the whole racial fight themselves, and left the Republicans out of it. If he is the nominee and it goes to the general it will be not only a racial contest but one fueled by party partisanship, and that would have force and that would get ugly.
Hard to know what party it would hurt more. How many Democrat victim groups want to be held hostage to the demands of that one dominant victim group? I have an idea that within the party itself mutual animosities would become intense. It's not a rainbow coalition if one group is getting all the press.
But of course it would be the Republicans who would be the racists. It's interesting though, that in fact, most Republicans would be voting against Obama without much emotion, and very little of it racial. The guy is a loser, and very probably a loon, a vote against him is easy. Still, the vituperation in the press would be intense --against McCain, against Republicans, against whites. And in fact a lot of independent and Democrat whites, sick of being called racist, would vote "racist" as a way of establishing to themselves that this in fact is a very normal rational response to a rump party obsessed with race. But everybody would be in a very bad mood.
But who knows about tonight? One way to avoid all the unpleasantness of being involved in this kind of fight would be to just stay home, and that might happen.
Note: I've heard noise that Huckabee is being considered as a possible veep. Haven't read the articles yet but it occurs to me that he might be the one man who could diffuse this racial tension. If he could make clear the difference between the true Christian message and Wright's hatred, if he could persuade 20% to 30% of blacks that that mattered a great deal, then McCain might get that 20% to 30%. If that happened it would no longer be a racial contest because race itself had established that there were other issues besides race.
So tonight? We'll see. Either a big nothing, or something substantial.
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5:45 CDT
Amazingly little coverage, but apparently heavy turnout, not sure if it's state wide. Presumably the margin will be wide. Could be a significant night.
Of significance so far:
--Barack is pretending this isn't happening, he isn't even going to give a concession speech tonight.
--75% of all voters say Barack shares "a lot", "somewhat", or "not much" of the views expressed by Wright; only a quarter say not at all.
--Fifty-nine percent of Clinton voters say they would not vote for Obama if he's the nominee. Thirty-five percent said they would vote for McCain, 24% would sit the election out.
Interesting numbers, and given some force as coming from people who have just voted, at a point in the primary cycle when people are normally already starting to coalesce around the presumptive nominee. It is possible this is a night that will have to be discussed.
----------------
6:50
Polls closed twenty minutes ago. From exit polls so far she's winning with 69% of the white vote. No official word yet on turnout. --And no exit numbers on the black vote. Some split would be an exceptionally welcome development.
My own feeling is that Barack is being a chump and a coward by not giving a gracious concession speech. He doesn't want coverage, but the message he's sending is that he's a chump, a coward, a sore loser, and a man who can not unite the country, who doesn't have the words for it, and can't even face the problem. It may indicate he's a political idiot as well. It's not as if this is a result he couldn't have foreseen and met with something more prepared than a duck and a dodge. It clearly indicates he's not prepared to be president of all the people.
-----------------
I'm stealing an entire Post from RCP Blog
Geraghty has a similar very nice post.
--------------
9:40
Fifty-four percent reporting in: Clinton 65; Obama 28; and "anybody but either" 7%. Pretty good. Clinton won every demographic! But that's only white voters. Apparently there aren't enough minorities to be considered a fair sample, so no report on how the black vote fell out. And still no word on total turnout, just that it was "heavy".
Still, this is a very sobering result: Late in the race, Obama clearly the nominee, and not one white demographic supports him! That's probably never happened before since Rome.
This primary has no significance except as part of the "national conversation on race." It will pass as insignificant, a slightly off-color remark, unless the result is both large in margin and massive in turnout. Turnout may be down in part simply because Barack didn't campaign there. He's the catalyst. He hasn't ignored that state as a concession, he's ignoring it first to delegitimize it as a contest, and secondly to cut his loss; if he stays away the statement will have less force than if he campaigns and energizes his opposition.
I do think it would be best for the country if the Democrats did the whole racial fight themselves, and left the Republicans out of it. If he is the nominee and it goes to the general it will be not only a racial contest but one fueled by party partisanship, and that would have force and that would get ugly.
Hard to know what party it would hurt more. How many Democrat victim groups want to be held hostage to the demands of that one dominant victim group? I have an idea that within the party itself mutual animosities would become intense. It's not a rainbow coalition if one group is getting all the press.
But of course it would be the Republicans who would be the racists. It's interesting though, that in fact, most Republicans would be voting against Obama without much emotion, and very little of it racial. The guy is a loser, and very probably a loon, a vote against him is easy. Still, the vituperation in the press would be intense --against McCain, against Republicans, against whites. And in fact a lot of independent and Democrat whites, sick of being called racist, would vote "racist" as a way of establishing to themselves that this in fact is a very normal rational response to a rump party obsessed with race. But everybody would be in a very bad mood.
But who knows about tonight? One way to avoid all the unpleasantness of being involved in this kind of fight would be to just stay home, and that might happen.
Note: I've heard noise that Huckabee is being considered as a possible veep. Haven't read the articles yet but it occurs to me that he might be the one man who could diffuse this racial tension. If he could make clear the difference between the true Christian message and Wright's hatred, if he could persuade 20% to 30% of blacks that that mattered a great deal, then McCain might get that 20% to 30%. If that happened it would no longer be a racial contest because race itself had established that there were other issues besides race.
So tonight? We'll see. Either a big nothing, or something substantial.
--------------
5:45 CDT
Amazingly little coverage, but apparently heavy turnout, not sure if it's state wide. Presumably the margin will be wide. Could be a significant night.
Of significance so far:
--Barack is pretending this isn't happening, he isn't even going to give a concession speech tonight.
--75% of all voters say Barack shares "a lot", "somewhat", or "not much" of the views expressed by Wright; only a quarter say not at all.
--Fifty-nine percent of Clinton voters say they would not vote for Obama if he's the nominee. Thirty-five percent said they would vote for McCain, 24% would sit the election out.
Interesting numbers, and given some force as coming from people who have just voted, at a point in the primary cycle when people are normally already starting to coalesce around the presumptive nominee. It is possible this is a night that will have to be discussed.
----------------
6:50
Polls closed twenty minutes ago. From exit polls so far she's winning with 69% of the white vote. No official word yet on turnout. --And no exit numbers on the black vote. Some split would be an exceptionally welcome development.
My own feeling is that Barack is being a chump and a coward by not giving a gracious concession speech. He doesn't want coverage, but the message he's sending is that he's a chump, a coward, a sore loser, and a man who can not unite the country, who doesn't have the words for it, and can't even face the problem. It may indicate he's a political idiot as well. It's not as if this is a result he couldn't have foreseen and met with something more prepared than a duck and a dodge. It clearly indicates he's not prepared to be president of all the people.
-----------------
I'm stealing an entire Post from RCP Blog
Posted by KYLE TRYGSTADStill haven't seen a black vote breakdown.
Quite simply, the exit polls show Hillary Clinton winning almost every demographic category possible.Groups Obama usually carried in previous primary states he lost tonight bysometimes two-to-one margins -- such as voters under the age of 30.
Voters in the West Virginia primary were overwhelmingly white (95%) andliving in rural or suburban areas (97%). Clinton won 69% of white voters,including 74% of white women.
Obama has regularly carried college-educated, higher-income voters. Butnot in West Virginia. Clinton won 75% of those with no college educationand 58% of those with a college education. She also carried every incomebracket. She won liberals, moderates and conservatives all by about two-to-one.
Two outside factors also helped Clinton: 79% of Clinton voters said BillClinton, who carried the state in the 1992 and 1996 general elections, campaigningin the state was important; and 51% of all voters said they think Obama sharesthe views of his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright -- and Clinton won84% of them.
Geraghty has a similar very nice post.
--------------
9:40
Fifty-four percent reporting in: Clinton 65; Obama 28; and "anybody but either" 7%. Pretty good. Clinton won every demographic! But that's only white voters. Apparently there aren't enough minorities to be considered a fair sample, so no report on how the black vote fell out. And still no word on total turnout, just that it was "heavy".
Still, this is a very sobering result: Late in the race, Obama clearly the nominee, and not one white demographic supports him! That's probably never happened before since Rome.
posted by mouse at 1:04 PM
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