Pill Pushing
I advocate that all true patriotic American Democrats who love their country and who are particularly concerned about my particular Republican happiness vote Hillary today so that peace and prosperity and a convention fight and my own good Republican fortune might flow on forever.
This is playing with fire. It would be of immense value to the republic if Hill were knocked out of the race and we would be rid of the Clintons once and finally and forever and there would be no possibility of resurrection and the nomination and the presidency; but she simply can't lose that badly, and she's not going to withdraw if she has any chance at all on the convention floor, so it's probably best if she gets a win and the Obama momentum is stopped. He'll still have support, but he'll be damaged. Then if they both at something like equal strength continue on to August the infighting will be ferocious, and that from the Republican perspective will be good. If the fighting is bad enough there's a chance many Democrats will vote McCain; there could even be a realignment --depending on who wins-- as to choice of party.
I do think Obama is going down. The NAFTA/Canadian kerffufle is the proof. It's much like Hillary's Philadelphia debate and her clumsy answer on drivers licenses for illegals that just didn't die. It was a minor matter but it was an opportunity to rebel against the queen. This Obama business, with double speak on NAFTA, is of the same nature. He said (most probably) two different things to two different audiences. So what? Happens all the time. But the criticism and questioning has not stopped. It's been going on and on, the press won't let it drop, and that means that the press is now judging Obama as a politician rather than as Elvis or a messiah. Why the change is uncertain (though over due), but if he's a politician then he's a hack from Chicago. He's not bringing salvation, he's merely an anti-Hillary. That's powerful in itself, but it returns the battle to the rational. The rational is always good, and I can't see that he has any presidential merit at all.
Huck? Who knows? He's hardly in the news and way behind in the polls. As per usual he'll do "better than expected" but in raw numbers there's no way at all to know how well that will be. His strength is that no one at all has any reason to vote for McCain since it's conceded the contest is over --McCain certainly believes it's over-- but conservatives have a strong impulse to vote because they don't trust the young fellow and at least a little want to put the screws to him. But I have no idea of the numbers. The military will do their duty and vote and their vote will be overwhelmingly McCain and there are 16 military bases in Texas. That's a lot of votes, but I don't know about any other demographic. It's going to be totally a turnout election. I doubt Huck's support has either grown or diminished because the values at issue are clearly known and McCain has done nothing to change the dynamic. Certainly he's not changed the dynamic in his favor, he's probably changed it a little against him, just by the way he's totally ignored Huck. This is the great fear conservatives have, that he will totally ignore them.
So who knows? I would dearly love to see the Huck punch him between the eyes and wake him up a bit but I have no idea what's happening on the ground so any prediction would be meaningless. "Better than expected", that's what I've got to stick with.
I believe Hillary will win both Texas and Ohio (at least the popular vote) and probably solidly; and probably Rhode Island too. I think tomorrow there will be consternation in the Obama camp. I would certainly hope the same for the Republicans.
This is playing with fire. It would be of immense value to the republic if Hill were knocked out of the race and we would be rid of the Clintons once and finally and forever and there would be no possibility of resurrection and the nomination and the presidency; but she simply can't lose that badly, and she's not going to withdraw if she has any chance at all on the convention floor, so it's probably best if she gets a win and the Obama momentum is stopped. He'll still have support, but he'll be damaged. Then if they both at something like equal strength continue on to August the infighting will be ferocious, and that from the Republican perspective will be good. If the fighting is bad enough there's a chance many Democrats will vote McCain; there could even be a realignment --depending on who wins-- as to choice of party.
I do think Obama is going down. The NAFTA/Canadian kerffufle is the proof. It's much like Hillary's Philadelphia debate and her clumsy answer on drivers licenses for illegals that just didn't die. It was a minor matter but it was an opportunity to rebel against the queen. This Obama business, with double speak on NAFTA, is of the same nature. He said (most probably) two different things to two different audiences. So what? Happens all the time. But the criticism and questioning has not stopped. It's been going on and on, the press won't let it drop, and that means that the press is now judging Obama as a politician rather than as Elvis or a messiah. Why the change is uncertain (though over due), but if he's a politician then he's a hack from Chicago. He's not bringing salvation, he's merely an anti-Hillary. That's powerful in itself, but it returns the battle to the rational. The rational is always good, and I can't see that he has any presidential merit at all.
Huck? Who knows? He's hardly in the news and way behind in the polls. As per usual he'll do "better than expected" but in raw numbers there's no way at all to know how well that will be. His strength is that no one at all has any reason to vote for McCain since it's conceded the contest is over --McCain certainly believes it's over-- but conservatives have a strong impulse to vote because they don't trust the young fellow and at least a little want to put the screws to him. But I have no idea of the numbers. The military will do their duty and vote and their vote will be overwhelmingly McCain and there are 16 military bases in Texas. That's a lot of votes, but I don't know about any other demographic. It's going to be totally a turnout election. I doubt Huck's support has either grown or diminished because the values at issue are clearly known and McCain has done nothing to change the dynamic. Certainly he's not changed the dynamic in his favor, he's probably changed it a little against him, just by the way he's totally ignored Huck. This is the great fear conservatives have, that he will totally ignore them.
So who knows? I would dearly love to see the Huck punch him between the eyes and wake him up a bit but I have no idea what's happening on the ground so any prediction would be meaningless. "Better than expected", that's what I've got to stick with.
I believe Hillary will win both Texas and Ohio (at least the popular vote) and probably solidly; and probably Rhode Island too. I think tomorrow there will be consternation in the Obama camp. I would certainly hope the same for the Republicans.
posted by mouse at 9:48 AM
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