Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Florida

Going to be a bit tardy tonight to the results because of other matters pressing, but I'm more tense about this vote than any other so far this season, and that's because I think it's vital that the James Jones wing of the Republican party get it in the neck. I very much don't want Romney to win. I think he'll do for the Republican party what Bill Clinton did for the Democrat; he will make it a party of dishonesty and delusion. After all, to support a man with no known core principles means you have to make the decision to live without core principles yourself, and that means the mind can go anywhere and believe and support anything. Romney will destroy the conservative movement, because he will have destroyed its moral base. He's already exposed that the intellectuals of the right are not Christian, are often vehemently anti-Christian.

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7:05
Bill Bradley
Early exit polls indicate a tight race between John McCain and Mitt Romney. The horse race numbers: McCain 34.6%, Romney 33%.

But now I've got to do other stuff.

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My own assessment of what could be the impact of the results, and I imagine it will be an assessment shared by most others, is that the only possible "knock out" punch would be a Romney wipeout of McCain. That's because then his money, momentum, and ideological support would then be seen as overwhelming. The opposite, a McCain blowout of Romney, would only damage the Romney camp. He would still have his money and his nut roots support. A close finish either way will simply be one battle fought and more to come. It wouldn't be more than a one night discouragement to either camp --though an immense morale booster to the winner.

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8:24PM (Eastern) - Brit Hume just announced the final FOX exits: McCain 34; Romney 31.

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Multitasking, poorly.

--Some of the exit polling I find very strange. Evangelicals going for Romney over Huckabee? With McCain sandwiched in between?
--And people who think the economy is most important going for McCain over Romney? Maybe I'm reading things too fast and am too distracted with other things?
--I have no idea if the early ballots are being reported. --But it does seem it will be as everyone expected, close between McCain and Romney, Huck and Rudy battling for third (though Rudy is doing much better than I'd expected; that might be the early ballots being counted.
--Obama is not doing quite so well as I'd expected.
--It does seem the results will be something I can personally live with without suffering great angst.

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9:12PM(Eastern)
Fox News and AP call for McCain. It makes sense. LikeI said - if Romney is losing Tampa, is in a tie in Orlando, and getting trouncedin Miami - there just are not enough Floridians for him to make up the difference. - JAY COST
If it's good enough for Jay Cost it's good enough for me.

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Geraghty
We've had three major McCain-Romney showdowns - New Hampshire, Michigan,and now Florida. McCain won in New Hampshire, but hey, he won there in 2000,i t was home turf for him. Romney won Michigan, but hey, it was a state where his dad is fondly remembered. Now, on pretty much neutral turf, with a diverse set of key demographics, with a lot of voters, a lot of population centers,a lot of driving issues... McCain comes out on top.... And Romney had an 8-to-1 advantage in television advertising.

Pretty good assessment. Guess I'll check out the sourpuss responses on NRO...

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