Calm & Prosperous Voyage

Okay, just checking the news for the first time today. This on Drudge:

CALM RETURNS

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks were at near three-year lows on Tuesday but fears of a major market meltdown failed to carry through from Wall Street to Europe as confidence in bank rescue packages persisted.

The U.S. Congress's rejection of a bank rescue plan tore nearly 9 percent off the broad S&P 500 on Monday but European shares and many Asian stock markets clawed back from early losses on hopes the U.S. plan would eventually go through.

There's more, of course. I note the italics are mine. Again and again the statement is made that markets have solidified "on hopes the U.S. plan would eventually go through." There are a billion people making decisions whether to sell, buy, or hold, and this is the only thought they've got in there mind? This is perhaps one thought every mind has, but along with that other thoughts of a billion different varieties. To explain markets on the basis of what the U.S. congress might or might do seems to me to be thinking within a very small box. It's that small box made the whole globe that creates the hysteria.

I think the next thing we have to do is put Barney Frank in jail and there will be peace and plenty thereafter forevermore.

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Hmm'n, it appears Nancy Pelosi doesn't want to put Barney in jail. This is at the end of the article and it's not specifically about Barney and I've inverted the paragraphs:

Emanuel apparently is concerned the roles former Clinton Administration members may have played in the mortgage industry collapse could be politically -- or worse, if the Department of Justice had its way, legally -- treacherous for many.

[He] has received assurances from Pelosi that she will not allow what he termed a "witch hunt" to take place during the next Congressional session over the role Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac played in the economic crisis.

Of course, to my mind if you do not put these people in jail, that is, publicly establish the cause of the collapse, you can have no resolution and no protection against the same thing happening again. I sure would like to see congress get out of the pass-the-money-around business and into the blame business.

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Right now I think my attitude is that I wish congress would just go home, George Bush would just go play golf, Harry Hank Hooey Paulson --whatever his name -- would just fly off in his golden parachute, and all the old-men-hysterics having their period would just jump off a building. --Give the FDIC greater authority, and then let the financials work things out themselves. It's not that I don't think there must be some intelligent thing that could be done, it's just that I don't think there's anyone out there just now, in charge, who's not lunatic. --I would further note that the markets being positive when the congress is not in session is a pretty good indication of what the congress should be doing. I'll bet tomorrow when they start haggling they'll screw things up again.

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Gingrich on The Mess. Really good. Fire Paulson!

Fire the Tin Pot!

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5:45 PM

Ha!

Statement by McCain-Palin senior policy adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin on the SEC's plan to relax mark-to-market accounting requirements: [Rich Lowry]

John McCain is pleased to see that the SEC has finally decided to permit alternative accounting methods to mark-to-market accounting for securities where no active market exists. There is serious concern that these accounting rules are worsening the credit crunch, making it difficult for small businesses to stay afloat and squeezing family budgets. In March, John McCain called for a meeting of accounting professionals to discuss whether mark-to-market accounting was magnifying problems in the financial markets."

This means the markets will be fine tomorrow. Now if only we can send congress to Mexico or the South Antilles or maybe to the South Pole where they can cool off.

Bailout Bull Is Battered

205 yeas, 228 nays. One third Dems opposed, two thirds Repubs.

Absolutely splendid. Now the world will end, or we will be in the deepest depression since men lived in caves... Or not.

If we're not in soup lines by tomorrow, at the very least I expect the resignation of Secretary Paulson, and I think it would be good form for many conservative pundits and most radio talk show hosts to jump off a building.

Stocks down. Biggy. They'll be up again in an hour. And crude below a hundred. That I like.

If I'm wrong and the crash becomes permanent...? Whoops.

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Exact final tally:

207-226, with Democrats supporting 141-94, Republicans opposing 66-132.

My own judgment is that this defeat is good judgment, in that I don't for a moment believe that a bad bill done today is better than a good bill done in two weeks. And I am critical of those who say "My heart is against it but my head is for it." I don't think their head is working at all, I think they're merely creatures of panic and mob thought. You don't maintain a free and prosperous country by surrendering to the despotism of Barney Frank. This was a package put together by the very people who caused the problem. Unless there is honesty in debate, and proper cause and blame is assessed, then there can be no proper address to the cause; it in effect will just be more of the same.

The process has to start over. There has to be a true fight, there has to be a recognition of tough times, and there has to be judgment supported by courage. "Pass this or we'll all die" is an argument immensely offensive.

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3:35 PM

From President Bush, exact quote:

"We've put forth a plan that was bad because we've got a bad problem."

Well, maybe not quite an exact quote.

Bailout? Version II

Just spotted this:

Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2008, 2:01 A.M. ET

Lawmakers Reach Tentative Bailout Deal

Top U.S. policy makers emerged from hours of tense negotiations with a clear message just after midnight Sunday morning: A deal to bailout U.S. financial markets has been agreed on and all that remains to be done is to commit the legislation to paper.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.), and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D.), were flanked by key negotiators in the Capitol as they announced that a $700 billion plan to have Treasury buy up toxic assets had been all but finalized after hours of exhausting negotiations. "I think we're there," an exhausted Mr. Paulson said, a sentiment echoed in the statements of negotiators such as House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D., Mass.) and Senate Banking Committee head Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.)

And for the Republicans:

"We worked out everything," said Sen. Judd Gregg, the chief Senate Republican in the talks. He said the House should be able to vote on it Sunday, and the Senate could take it up Monday.

Pretty solid, and...

House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R., Mo.) said that he planned to talk to colleagues and get reactions.

Maybe not so much.

And no Boehnor, Shelby, or Cantor. I think the Democrats may be taking a bow again, and applauding themselves. I don't see a lot that will particularly excite Republicans --the insurance idea for example seems to be nothing more than a verbal acknowledgment of concept. But then, nothing has been written down, so we'll see. They've probably just decided to muscle it through. The announcement now is for the Sunday TV shows.

Republicans might as well let them ride with it. If it's a successful program it's good for the country, if it's a disaster it's good for Republicans. I can't see any point in voting for it.

And I can't see why any of this should have been so "exhausting". It pretty much seems to me they've been talking to themselves.

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8:50PM PM

I've remained in a good mood today by not paying any attention to the news at all. I did just check and found this at Hot Air:

A source close to House Republicans has put out a Myth vs Fact rundown of the bailout compromise, announced early this morning....

Myth: Treasury plan is the only option available.

Fact: Treasury is given multiple options to deal with the current economic crisis, including insurance, public/private auctions, loan guarantees, and direct support to financial institutions.

Fact: Further, Treasury is MANDATED to create an insurance program (Section102) that protects the taxpayers and requires companies that wish to participate in this program to have some skin in the game by paying risk-based premiums.

I guess that's the only one I particularly care about. But while the written version is apparently now up, I haven't seen it, so I don't know if "mandated" actually means mandated. To my mind this is an exceptionally intelligent proposal --all that's really needed to restart the financial markets is to break the freeze, insurance would do that-- but if it's "mandated" but not pursued, it might be the same as if it didn't exist. --Otherwise, the only money immediately available to Paulson is 250 billion, and 100 billion more simply on the President's affirmation that it's necessary. Is it possible that that not being enough, Paulson would have to try the insurance option...? Which wouldn't cost a dime. --It also seems to me that temporary unlimited FDIC deposit insurance would prevent runs on banks and money markets, and that should unfreeze assets for lending.

Whatever, at least it's not unlimited power given to one man, and that somewhat maintains the idea of republican government. --Still think this is mostly hysteria. Apparently passage won't happen before Wednesday --the House Monday, the Senate Wednesday. It will be interesting to see if markets calm just on the thought "something will be done". Friday the Dow went up 121 points.

Apparently most of the Republican leadership is backing the bill, though again, that statement of backing has come before they've seen the actual written language.

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I rather like this guy's attitude:

If the bailout doesn’t work, we will see further declines in the stock market and asset value than if we did nothing — so what ever they propose better be bullet-proof. Personally, I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Congress, Treasury, and Federal Reserve to cobble together a cohesive plan that covers all the bases.

With elections on the line, there is too much temptation to play politics and not do what is right for the market.

But still — perhaps the right thing to do would have been to listen to the lessons of Adam Smith and Milton Friedman and let the capitalistic market work.

Fundamentally my feeling. Maybe a lot of FDIC, but otherwise take a lot of time and do something bright and not political. And do it when the dimensions of the problem are clear. The only huge dimension of the problem just now is hysteria.

Bailout?

From Fox:

Emerging from a two-hour negotiating session, Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., said, "We are very confident that we can act expeditiously."

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass: "There really isn't much of a deadlock to break."

But:

Rep. Spencer Bachus, R-AL, the top Republican on Frank's committee, told FOX News "there is no deal yet," although he conceded there was progress....

House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-OH, agreed with Bachus.

"I am encouraged by the bipartisan progress being made toward an economic package that protects the interests of families, seniors, small businesses and all taxpayers. However, House Republicans have not agreed to any plan at this point," Boehner said in a written statement.

Actually, an hour ago, when it was reported widely as a "done deal", only Dodd, Franks, and Pelosi were quoted, with only some Republican mumble, and no authoritative statement. Now there is, from Boehner. Pretty obviously this was a "credit gambit", Democrats wanted to take credit for a done deal, so that if it later falls apart, then John McCain won't be the savior who made it all possible, but the man who caused it all to collapse.

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9:30 PM

Man, do I feel better. Appears the Paulson deal is breaking down. Good, we're Americans, not Soviets.

Republican house members have a very nice idea: Insurance. The idea seems to be this:

--There are trillions of billions of zillions of dollars out there in securities that would normally be bought and sold and used to finance lending. But it's all "frozen up". The trick is to unfreeze it.

--The idea is that those assets are frozen because they're tainted by the inclusion of subprime mortgages, but nobody knows what package contains what, so the true value of any package is not known, thus the hesitancy to buy.

--but the total of bad assets to good is actually tiny.

--This is where insurance comes in. The idea is that financial institutions should continue to deal with them as if they were all good. If it does turn out that a particular package is bad, the government covers the loss. That makes all of them good.

--But the government believes they can cover this cost by selling insurance. The idea is that institutions want to be able to do business. If for a small additional price they can do business, they will. Since it will turn out they are far more businesses traded that affected, the insurance will cover the cost.

Very very smart. And there are other ideas concerning additional infusion of capital and so forth, but this is the basic idea and it's free market and brilliant.

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As I understand, Barney is very upset. Ha Ha. I also understand a lot of Democrats in the house are warming to this plan.

And on the debates? Obama apparently has decided his presence is needed throughout the night. If it's needed tonight, it will be needed tomorrow, and there will be no particular reason for him to speed off to his debate, all by himself, while McCain continues to save the country.

Bring It On

I say, if we're going to have a depression, let's do it. I'm immensely unimpressed that the people who let this financial problem develop --I'm thinking Bernake and Paulson-- are the two who should be able to fix it. They've already proved themselves incompetent, their prescriptions for cure can mean nothing. Buying their ideas is buying the pig. Right now the financial engine sputters. If we let things ride either something unclogs or something breaks, either way we know the problem because we'll be able to see it. Right now the diagnosis is all analysis, and it's not something I trust at all, and I don't like somebody telling me "Give me 700 billion because I'm right." I would prefer to give them the door, as failures, and then just wait to see what happens. I would presume that the markets, under stress, would discover some collective intelligence. I don't think the markets want a depression anymore than I do.

Hooey Ho Hum

I think the Great Depression of the 21st Century has come and gone. This bailout business is baloney. I think it's dead. Dead probably through unresolvable partisan bickering rather than through a philosophic conviction that it's a bad idea, but dead, hopefully, nevertheless.

I will say that I have the impression that Bernake and Paulson seem quite impressed at their own heroic importance. I hope they get some flack during their testimony.

I don't know if I'll bother to write about this more or not. I can't see that a few billion in bad mortgages should have much affect throughout the financial system as a whole, poison-pill packged or not. A little freeze-up for a bit, maybe; that's happened, but it shouldn't take long for various banks to compute the possible loss and then just continue. It's just not very much money compared to all the money that's out there, and people want to lend and people want to borrow and people can figure out how to do it.

No bailout, because no problem.

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6:00PM

This is interesting:

WASHINGTON - Democrats have decided to allow a quarter-century ban on drilling for oil off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts to expire next week, conceding defeat in an month-long battle with the White House and Republicans set off by $4 a gallon gasoline prices this summer.

Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey, D-Wis., told reporters Tuesday that a provision continuing the moratorium will be dropped this year from a stopgap spending bill to keep the government running after Congress recesses for the election.

Republicans have made lifting the ban a key campaign after gasoline prices spiked this summer and public opinion turned in favor of more drilling. President Bush lifted an executive ban on offshore drilling in July.

"If true, this capitulation by Democrats following months of Republican pressure is a big victory for Americans struggling with record gasoline prices,"said House GOP leader John Boehner of Ohio.

Yup. And it means speculators in oil have to fear more oil supply. They had presumed Democrats where going to get through their more-drill-no-drill nonsense legislation. Dems are whipped, apparently (to my surprise). Prices will head down again. --Crude about $106 just now.

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Note:

Will this mean drilling can commence? Not quite. The states have to lease the lands as well as the federal government, and states won’t likely do so without revenue sharing.... Congress has to approve that action, and right now it still appears that Democrats want to use that to limit production.

I don't know anything about this particular wrinkle. But Democrats lost the first fight due to public pressure, and in the same way will probably lose the second. Depends on how Republicans do November 4.

Nothn' Happened Sort of Day

Strange, nothing-happened sort of day. I guess the only way I could feel this way --since probably as much happened as happens on most days-- is if I was expecting something. I think I expected something would happen in the polls; I think I expected they would go up, they remained steady. I think I thought that with the OPEC announcement of curtailed production something dramatic would happen with prices, up or down; they remained static. Possibly I thought something would happen with the lipstick comment, --it's remained negative for Barack but nothing dramatic. I don't know what I expected, but I do know I have no new insight into anything political.

--I do expect McCain's numbers are going to stay up because Barack had his shot and couldn't pull it off. I can't see any possibility he can get his act together because he only ever had one: I'm a black guy with a grin and I'm not Hillary. I've said again and again that "Hope & Change" never meant anything more than "I hope we can get rid of Hillary." But he only needed half of the Democrat party to do that and he's not going to get half of the nation who want to "get rid" of McCain and Palin.

--I don't believe Palin is going to continue to be anything but a plus, because I don't believe there will be any scandal associated with her, and I'm certain she will be far more articulate than Barry himself; and I don't believe the MSM will be able to hurt her because they'll be dismissed as so clearly in the tank for the dolt. And if Palin can continue to get Barry's goat he'll be the one making headlines.

--Biden is helpful. He slips into honesty every once-in-awhile, and he likes Hillary and McCain more than he likes Barack.

--McCain will remain steady. His image can't really be changed but his positives should go up now that more people will consider him a more probable president and will take a closer look. There's a lot there to like, and conservatives have accepted he's who he is.

--I don't think the economy will be that much of a drag. McCain wasn't President, he can't be blamed, and with recession threatening anyway, who's going to argue you should raise taxes?

--Energy might be very big.

--Iraq is a non-issue --though there should be some satisfaction that there's been victory. --There could be other blow-ups, all of which would favor McCain.

In sum, I see nothing but roses. 'Course, I totally ignore MSM. How many others do? They still are the enemy, but to the MSM I would say: You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig.

And incidentally, Barry looks like a teenager.

Street Cool

From Ben Smith's blog:

Obama poked fun of McCain and Palin's new "change" mantra.

"You can put lipstick on a pig," he said as the crowd cheered. "It's still a pig."

"You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change. It's still gonna stink."

"We've had enough of the same old thing."

The crowd apparently took the "lipstick" line as a reference to Palin, who described the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull in a single word: "lipstick."

Reported by Amie Parnes, from Lebanon, VA:

Obama wears lipstick?

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Read hundreds of comments on the lipstick comment, mostly from the Ben Smith Blog, somewhat leftish to my judgment. By a huge percentage it was understood that the lipstick comment referred to Palin, and the "old fish" comment referred to McCain. A few said, "So What? It's accurate," and some said it was just "a common expression," nothing to get excited about. It is in fact a common expression, but within the context of Palin's pit bull comment, and the fact of McCain's age, there is zero doubt about Obama's intent. (Normally, the fish comment would be "rotten fish", not "old fish".)

Marc Ambinder disagreed. He said it was obviously a slip, otherwise we would have to assume Obama was just colossally stupid; he couldn't possibly have used it purposely because he would have understood how offensive it would sound to so many. Ambinder misses the point. The guy is cheap. This is his personality, so that's what he expressed.

I'm not going to twist common observation into a pretzel so I can pretend Obama didn't do what. What he did was purposeful. But I suppose I could attempt psychoanalysis: Why did he do it? I can answer perfectly: Because he's cheap.

As to why he's additionally so politically stupid? I can answer that perfectly as well: Because he's had no experience. He's never had to run a race from the center against opposition. He's never had to pull together a coalition. Always, he's been either the chosen one of the Chicago machine (with all opposition eliminated prior to the race); or, as in the primaries, he's just had to express one half of the sentiment of the party that is one half of the political sentiment of America. He just had to be left, and an alternative to the hated Hill; but once with a foothold, he didn't really have to be personally politically astute. So that's why he's dumb.

Bottom line: A lot of people want a Democrat this year, it's getting so a lot of people don't want Obama.

Note on tactics: It does appear he can't control his inflated ego, tweak him and he strikes out; and it does appear that Sarah's got his goat. The clear tactic is to keep Sarah in his face.

This shouldn't be that difficult, after all, that's her job, to be the pit bull. She legitimately can attack his policies and experience. If she uses good humor, she can mock everything about him. If she maintains her crowds she of course will be devastating, but in fact she probably only has to mock. He's unbalanced. It will drive him mad.

At some point Sarah should exactly respond with Hillary's words when he said she looked good enough... Whatever it was. Have to look it up... "That hurts my feelings...I'll have to bear up...?" Something in that nature. That response would bring a laugh, and the Hillary women would know exactly what she meant.

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OPEC to cut output by 520,000 bpd.

This is interesting. If this doesn't stop the price slide, prices will plummet. I imagine OPEC is bright enough to recognize that this is going to be annoying to a number of other countries.

Crude was down to $102.06 earlier; just now (1:55 AM) it's $103.57.

Going, Going...

Gone! Follow the bouncing ball... Hap.. . py days... are here... a gain. That ball is outta here!

The polls aren't coming back down. Normally a convention bounce is due just to four days of positive coverage to a race that most voters have only but already been following half-heartedly for a year. They know the narrative, but they get a big dose. But the bounce is temporary because in fact nothing has changed and once the excitement fades the commitment fades. It's back to ho hum for those indifferent voters and a general desire just to throw all the bums out.

The Democrat convention certainly was ho hum. Some drama, of course, but only for those already wrapped up in the race, and then a wrap up of more Obama which is too much Obama, he just can't be new anymore. His speech got no bounce at all.

But the Republican convention was different. There has been change. There is someone new now, and the narrative is different, and explosive and accelerating. The base is charged up, something no one would have conceived possible; and the opposition is faltering, creaking, crumbling. The "facts on the ground" have changed, this is our "surge", unexpected, but slowly devastating.

The numbers aren't going back to where they were.

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I see the devastation as two fold: Sarah Palin has rewritten "woman's issues." Women, fundamentally, instinctively, desire to nurture kids, not kill them. To venerate and protect birth is a woman's issue, killing kids is just feminism. Far more women are going to be drawn to Sarah than to Hillary. The commitment to life is far more mainstream than "the right to chose." --Besides, Sarah did it on her own. She's far more super-mom / super-woman than Hillary, or any of the Democrat types who have claimed to speak for women.

And she's more manly than The Twit. This is the fraud I've been waiting to see fold for months now. I'm amazed he's hung on so long. But of course he hangs on because the press hangs on, and doesn't give up on its mantra that he's great. It's their conviction that they can create reality: what's reported is what's real. Obama, Obama, Obama. But in fact it's Sarah who's real, and The Twit is just a twit. Tiny, Twit. And people have eyes. When they see genuine capacity, even if inexperienced, they recognize it.

Generally the mind changes in an instant. Or rather, I should say, conscious understanding of belief and commitment changes in an instant. Of course, first there's a long preparation of doubt and uneasiness, always shoved under the consciousness, or to the side, the commitment to present belief reaffirmed with new bellicosity, covering doubt. But in fact, people do think and people do observe. It just takes a tiny straw sometimes, for them to suddenly see they've been suckered. The MSM, in many things, not just with Obama, has been creating fantasy as fact. They believe their fantasy, they've separated themselves more and more from fact. At a certain point, normal people just can't follow with them anymore, they see they've been suckered, and at that point the fantasy is rejected entirely.

I believe that's happened with a lot of people now. Sometimes it just takes a straw. Sarah Palin was a baseball bat.

The numbers aren't going back down.

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Just for fun, all of the major poll numbers Friday through Sunday (From RCP).

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread

RCP Average 09/05 - 09/07 -- 48.3 45.4 ------------McCain +2.9

ABC News/Wash Post 09/05 - 09/07 LV 49 47 ------McCain +2
CBS News 09/05 - 09/07 655 RV 46 44 ---------------McCain +2
USA Today/Gallup 09/05 - 09/07 823 LV 54 44 ----McCain +10
CNN 09/05 - 09/07 942 RV 48 48 ---------------------Tie
Rasmussen Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 3000 LV 48 47 -McCain +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 924 RV 44 44 ---Tie
Gallup Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 2733 RV 49 44 -------McCain +5

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And crude continues down despite Ike ($105.32; 1:00 AM). Could be because congress is talking drilling:

A bipartisan group, originally known as the Gang of Ten, that has crafted a drilling compromise gained more members and has grown to 22 senators. The group has proposed allowing drilling 50 miles off the coasts of Virginia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia and off the Gulf coast of Florida.

Separately, Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., was preparing a proposal that also would include drilling in the currently off-limits eastern Gulf of Mexico and possibly elsewhere.....

Republican leaders are expected to push for broader offshore drilling and are likely to call for lifting drilling bans along both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts as well as the eastern Gulf of Mexico. They also have strongly opposed any additional taxes on oil companies....

Meanwhile, House Republican leaders on Monday demanded an end to all of the drilling bans on the Outer Continental Shelf's federal waters as well as in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

"We want a vote," House GOP leader John Boehner R-Ohio, declared at a gathering of more than 40 House Republicans on the steps of the Capitol, demanding that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., allow floor consideration of the Republican energy package.

What will happen who knows, but if we drill, the price plummets, because the shortage of oil is as fake as Obama is great or Global Warming is threatening. "Investors", the pension funds, etc., know that, and so they've been getting out now, steadily, since Bush first lifted the Executive Ban on off-shore drilling. Not a drop of new oil, but a threat of new oil, and that's enough to deflate the bubble of these irrational prices. Prices will move down toward the "last barrel" price of production. --Of course, the threat of new oil has to remain creditable.

Free, Free At Last

Subj: Free, Free At Last

K,

Just got back. Went to the Net. This popped up on Drudge; from Gallup/USA:

"In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote."

And I'll include this, since it's something you're so concerned about:

"McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3."

Also:

"McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters..."

I'll mention again that the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls are of registered voters, not likely voters; so with those two polls, were they weighted for likely voters, McCain's lead would probably be similar. And in the weighting of those two polls, it's always assumed Democrats have far more enthusiasm and will turn out in proportionately greater numbers. That's probably not true anymore, so just by that factor McCain's lead is probably greater than stated.

Oil, unfortunately, has slightly spiked, probably because of Ike.


See you, --Mouse

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Also, Sarah to give her first interview, to Charlie Gibson...In Alaska! This is splendid. She'll probably be in the Govenor's Mansion...office...whatever. He'll have to address her: Govenor. That makes for some gravitas, and probably a focus on issues of state, rather than issues of family. And then she might do a second one in her home, where questions about family would be more appropriate; but again, in her home, Gibson would have to be respectful. It appears the McCain Camp is being very bright. She has suffered a lot of slime. This is a way of commanding respect. Plus, in her own enviornment she'll probably feel more in command.

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And note MSNBC has dumped Olberman and Mathews, at least in terms of debate coverage. McCain and Sarah are already shaking things up.

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And Jindal is getting rave reveiws for his handling of Prep for Humrican Gustav "I'd give him an A-plus," said Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu. --Unfortunately, it looks like Ike is going to give him another test in just days.

Good day, though.

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And one note of the obvious, though it just now popped into my mind. One reason Palin is so automatically compared to Obama, rather than Biden, is because that's what everybody has been doing for a year! That is, comparing one woman, Hillary, against the Big O. This is an exact continuation of that mental and emotional habit, though this time, unfortunately for Obo, the woman he's being compared to, Palin, is the VP, not the Presidential, nominee. Is Obs qualified to be VP? Interesting.

To State the Obvious

At the risk of stating the obvious: The immense response to Sarah Palin has been prepped. She's an appealing woman, but that appeal doesn't explain the extraordinary emotion by which she's been greeted.

A man thrown a rope while seated in his living room might indeed be impressed that it's a very nice rope; a man thrown a rope in a rapids will grasp at it as though his life depended on it. Indeed, in that case it does. The American public just now is not in a rapids, but they are in a miasmatic swamp of propagandistic delusion, and they have seen a bright light --call it sanity-- and they grasp at it, delightedly. Obama is being sold as a man of great capacity. He's a dolt. No human of any sort of functional capacity, say the ability to breath in-and-out, can see him and not see a dolt. Yet he's extolled as exceptional.

Enter Sarah. She is exceptional. A beginner, but exceptional. It's a truism of criticism that the way to criticize is to compare. The one will be better than the other. So now you have two, beginners both. Which is the better?

This is a sanity, and once the American public has seen it they won't forget.

And they won't forget who attempted to perpetrate this fraud of a Messiah. It's not merely His Holiness of the Big O, it's something called... the Mainstream Press. This election could be a realignment. The Messiah is not the only one who has earned an identity.

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5:00 PM
It's official now:

John McCain has won the ratings race.

The Republican nominee beat Democratic challenger Barack Obama's record-setting convention speech viewership by 500,000.

McCain's address at the Republican National Convention on Thursday nightwas seen by about 38.9 million viewers, according to Nielsen Media Research.Obama received 38.4 million.

And crude is now at $106.70, and hit a low of $105.11. What a good day.

Note:
I read many of the comments on the ratings article. It seemed most said it was a terrible speech and they had fallen asleep. That's a defensive tactic, they're falling asleep to avoid being snapped awake.

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12:18 AM
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bdffd9a6-7b71-11dd-b839-000077b07658.html

This is interesting:

The conflict between Russia and Georgia began on the night of August 7, when Georgian forces, including commando units, tanks and artillery, assaulted the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali.
Russia says that at least 133 civilians died in the attack, as well as 59 of its own peacekeepers, according to figures released this week.

In response Russia launched a mass invasion and aerial bombardment of Georgia, in which 215 Georgians have died, including 146 soldiers and 69 civilians.

I wonder if this is "official." From the article (Financial Times) the Russian figures are a Russian release. It may be only in reference to the assault on Tskhinvali. The Georgian figures seem to be of the conflict as a whole, though where they come from I don't know. But these are really low figures for what supposedly was a decimation of the Georgian army.

Been a fun day.Hope to read even better poll results tomorrow.

Catch Up

I've decided that rather than a dump I'll just briefly state what I've thought the last few weeks.

--On the Dem convention. I predicted that there would be no unity, and that Barack would get no bounce. There was no unity, though more civility than I'd expected. Hillary's speech was predictable, but far more skillfully written and delivered than I'd imagined. Bill's speech did surprise me, in that the words were so measured and "seemed" so positive. I guess he was content that things were going well enough so that he could "seem" to play ball, I suppose recognizing that nobody would believe him anyway. Together they gave Barack a four or five point bounce.

--Barack's speech, on the other hand, gave him no bounce at all. I had no prediction as to what the speech would contain, only that it would not be effective. That's because he's lost his brand. Only the already damaged can continue to think that he's new.

--On the Repubs: I didn't see Sarah coming. What a stunning, marvelous surprise. This is an elemental force, it's the force of the authentic. As long as she can hold up, she's a mirror to the lie of The Obama, and of the whole Democrat party. These last four years have been fantasy. All the opposition to the war, the nut stuff about Global Warming --everything-- has been the creation of a dream. But now there's a genuine woman --the VP!-- who's new and inexperienced yet more competent than the Democrat nominee. That's so sudden and unexpected that it may be the snap of the finger that ends the whole trance. Every Liberal position is illusion, opposition simply to discredit so that they might gain power. The creation of such a vast lie is vastly unwholesome. It may end. Snap.

--On Russia I've said that their invasion of Georgia is their new Afghanistan. I think that's holding true, though the method of war is going to be far more sophisticated than I'd thought.

Okay, this is brief enough. I do have my emails if I ever do need details.

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10:30 AM

Tried to send this to Krauthammer but it won't go through. Doesn't matter, he'll get 10,000 similar emails. He argues that Palin can only succeed if she becomes another Obama, if she becomes a personality that deceives the public that she's ready to be president. Charles is really hung up on that ready-to-be-president bit. But that's not her function. She's clearly not ready. Her function is to make it unavoidably clear that Obama, the head of the Democrat ticket, is not ready either.

...............
Another Abusive Email

Dear Mr. Krauthammer,

You make this statement of Obama: "The sheer elegance, intelligence, and power of his public presence have muted the uneasy feeling about his unreadiness. Palin does not reach Obama’s mesmeric level."

You, my young friend, have been mesmerized. Obama does not have elegance, intelligence, or a powerful public presence. He's a stuttering, stumbling dolt, and comes across as such to anybody not already in a media induced trance. Palin's function is not to become Obama, but to be absolutely not-Obama. She's unready, but authentic; he's unready, but a created messiah. These come and go.

This is how it works: When authenticity meets fraud it's a snap of a finger, the veil falls, the King is naked. The particular nakedness of The Obama is not that he's not ready, that's recognized, it's that he is not intelligent, elegant, or in anyway a powerful public presence. When the trance is broken, he's a schoolboy. Sarah sees that. She's got two months to do her work. It is possible she might be broken by the press, but she certainly won't be fazed by a kid, and the kid she sees is the kid everybody else is going to see soon.

You, however, a normally bright man, are a hard case and do have that glassy stare. It would do you good to get out of Washington. Go shoot a moose.

------------
Note:
--McCain's acceptance speech may have drawn greater numbers than Obama's;and Palin's speech, all numbers added up, certainly drew more, about 40 million to 38.4. And according to Rasmussen, Palin is now more popular than either Obama or McCain, and McCain is now within two points of Obama in presidential preference, and that's including only one day post-Sarah's acceptance speech in a three day rolling average.

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And, 11:10 AM, crude continues down. $106.11 just now.

She's My Girl

Haven't been posting but have been sending emails. May do a dump later just to have a record of what I thought when. That's supposed to keep me honest in my self assessments. Too bad I haven't been posting. Recently my predictions have been pretty accurate.

Here's one now just to get back in the spirit of sticking my neck out.

--------
K,

Don't know when you called. I was gone part of the time and then all evening had the TV turned up loud in the kitchen.

Thought I would make a couple of points. When I speak of McCain as being a "genius", I only mean I'm exceptionally pleased with the decisions he's made, but I don't in fact know if they're made by him or by Steve Schmit.

More importantly, I think the race is now going to turn around. In Berlin Obama made clear he wasn't an American, that was the turning point because there are more Americans who love America than hate America. But it takes awhile for people to change their minds, it takes awhile for them to even just recognize what it was they actually saw.

With Biden he lost the youth vote, at least in terms of increased turnout; nobody not already committed is going to believe in "hope and change" if the magical maestro picks the opposite of either as his second in command.

And at Invesco field he lost his magic. He gave that much touted speech... and nobody cared. He was watched by 37 million, and his numbers didn't move a point! Nobody cares about him anymore, though nobody has yet said that. True, he's still a Democrat and so will have a Democrat base, but he's now just an inexperienced hack from the machine in Chicago. His appeal had been that he was new, exciting, magical. Now he's no longer new, nor believable: and he's illustrated that his magic is mirage. He's just a Democrat, and one who's disappointed. He's going down.

McCain, on the other hand --"old as dirt", though still supported by nearly half the public-- has pulled off magic... with Sarah. She is new, she is appealing, and the magic is that Sarah is not being compared to Biden, but Obama is being compared to her! This is an unthought, instinctive comparison, but everybody recognizes it's the proper one: If Sarah is not ready, Obama is not ready either. That narrows the options. It's an argument everybody understands, and nobody has to say a thing. That's magic.

I predict that by Tuesday McCain will be in the lead, possibly he'll already be in the lead by tomorrow. I believe that the Obama implosion that I've predicted with a certainty has started.

This all depends on Palin being competent, but then, it is effortless to be more competent than Barack.


See you, --Mouse