Going, Going...
Gone! Follow the bouncing ball... Hap.. . py days... are here... a gain. That ball is outta here!
The polls aren't coming back down. Normally a convention bounce is due just to four days of positive coverage to a race that most voters have only but already been following half-heartedly for a year. They know the narrative, but they get a big dose. But the bounce is temporary because in fact nothing has changed and once the excitement fades the commitment fades. It's back to ho hum for those indifferent voters and a general desire just to throw all the bums out.
The Democrat convention certainly was ho hum. Some drama, of course, but only for those already wrapped up in the race, and then a wrap up of more Obama which is too much Obama, he just can't be new anymore. His speech got no bounce at all.
But the Republican convention was different. There has been change. There is someone new now, and the narrative is different, and explosive and accelerating. The base is charged up, something no one would have conceived possible; and the opposition is faltering, creaking, crumbling. The "facts on the ground" have changed, this is our "surge", unexpected, but slowly devastating.
The numbers aren't going back to where they were.
----------------
I see the devastation as two fold: Sarah Palin has rewritten "woman's issues." Women, fundamentally, instinctively, desire to nurture kids, not kill them. To venerate and protect birth is a woman's issue, killing kids is just feminism. Far more women are going to be drawn to Sarah than to Hillary. The commitment to life is far more mainstream than "the right to chose." --Besides, Sarah did it on her own. She's far more super-mom / super-woman than Hillary, or any of the Democrat types who have claimed to speak for women.
And she's more manly than The Twit. This is the fraud I've been waiting to see fold for months now. I'm amazed he's hung on so long. But of course he hangs on because the press hangs on, and doesn't give up on its mantra that he's great. It's their conviction that they can create reality: what's reported is what's real. Obama, Obama, Obama. But in fact it's Sarah who's real, and The Twit is just a twit. Tiny, Twit. And people have eyes. When they see genuine capacity, even if inexperienced, they recognize it.
Generally the mind changes in an instant. Or rather, I should say, conscious understanding of belief and commitment changes in an instant. Of course, first there's a long preparation of doubt and uneasiness, always shoved under the consciousness, or to the side, the commitment to present belief reaffirmed with new bellicosity, covering doubt. But in fact, people do think and people do observe. It just takes a tiny straw sometimes, for them to suddenly see they've been suckered. The MSM, in many things, not just with Obama, has been creating fantasy as fact. They believe their fantasy, they've separated themselves more and more from fact. At a certain point, normal people just can't follow with them anymore, they see they've been suckered, and at that point the fantasy is rejected entirely.
I believe that's happened with a lot of people now. Sometimes it just takes a straw. Sarah Palin was a baseball bat.
The numbers aren't going back down.
-------------------
Just for fun, all of the major poll numbers Friday through Sunday (From RCP).
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 09/05 - 09/07 -- 48.3 45.4 ------------McCain +2.9
ABC News/Wash Post 09/05 - 09/07 LV 49 47 ------McCain +2
CBS News 09/05 - 09/07 655 RV 46 44 ---------------McCain +2
USA Today/Gallup 09/05 - 09/07 823 LV 54 44 ----McCain +10
CNN 09/05 - 09/07 942 RV 48 48 ---------------------Tie
Rasmussen Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 3000 LV 48 47 -McCain +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 924 RV 44 44 ---Tie
Gallup Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 2733 RV 49 44 -------McCain +5
--------------
And crude continues down despite Ike ($105.32; 1:00 AM). Could be because congress is talking drilling:
What will happen who knows, but if we drill, the price plummets, because the shortage of oil is as fake as Obama is great or Global Warming is threatening. "Investors", the pension funds, etc., know that, and so they've been getting out now, steadily, since Bush first lifted the Executive Ban on off-shore drilling. Not a drop of new oil, but a threat of new oil, and that's enough to deflate the bubble of these irrational prices. Prices will move down toward the "last barrel" price of production. --Of course, the threat of new oil has to remain creditable.
The polls aren't coming back down. Normally a convention bounce is due just to four days of positive coverage to a race that most voters have only but already been following half-heartedly for a year. They know the narrative, but they get a big dose. But the bounce is temporary because in fact nothing has changed and once the excitement fades the commitment fades. It's back to ho hum for those indifferent voters and a general desire just to throw all the bums out.
The Democrat convention certainly was ho hum. Some drama, of course, but only for those already wrapped up in the race, and then a wrap up of more Obama which is too much Obama, he just can't be new anymore. His speech got no bounce at all.
But the Republican convention was different. There has been change. There is someone new now, and the narrative is different, and explosive and accelerating. The base is charged up, something no one would have conceived possible; and the opposition is faltering, creaking, crumbling. The "facts on the ground" have changed, this is our "surge", unexpected, but slowly devastating.
The numbers aren't going back to where they were.
----------------
I see the devastation as two fold: Sarah Palin has rewritten "woman's issues." Women, fundamentally, instinctively, desire to nurture kids, not kill them. To venerate and protect birth is a woman's issue, killing kids is just feminism. Far more women are going to be drawn to Sarah than to Hillary. The commitment to life is far more mainstream than "the right to chose." --Besides, Sarah did it on her own. She's far more super-mom / super-woman than Hillary, or any of the Democrat types who have claimed to speak for women.
And she's more manly than The Twit. This is the fraud I've been waiting to see fold for months now. I'm amazed he's hung on so long. But of course he hangs on because the press hangs on, and doesn't give up on its mantra that he's great. It's their conviction that they can create reality: what's reported is what's real. Obama, Obama, Obama. But in fact it's Sarah who's real, and The Twit is just a twit. Tiny, Twit. And people have eyes. When they see genuine capacity, even if inexperienced, they recognize it.
Generally the mind changes in an instant. Or rather, I should say, conscious understanding of belief and commitment changes in an instant. Of course, first there's a long preparation of doubt and uneasiness, always shoved under the consciousness, or to the side, the commitment to present belief reaffirmed with new bellicosity, covering doubt. But in fact, people do think and people do observe. It just takes a tiny straw sometimes, for them to suddenly see they've been suckered. The MSM, in many things, not just with Obama, has been creating fantasy as fact. They believe their fantasy, they've separated themselves more and more from fact. At a certain point, normal people just can't follow with them anymore, they see they've been suckered, and at that point the fantasy is rejected entirely.
I believe that's happened with a lot of people now. Sometimes it just takes a straw. Sarah Palin was a baseball bat.
The numbers aren't going back down.
-------------------
Just for fun, all of the major poll numbers Friday through Sunday (From RCP).
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 09/05 - 09/07 -- 48.3 45.4 ------------McCain +2.9
ABC News/Wash Post 09/05 - 09/07 LV 49 47 ------McCain +2
CBS News 09/05 - 09/07 655 RV 46 44 ---------------McCain +2
USA Today/Gallup 09/05 - 09/07 823 LV 54 44 ----McCain +10
CNN 09/05 - 09/07 942 RV 48 48 ---------------------Tie
Rasmussen Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 3000 LV 48 47 -McCain +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 924 RV 44 44 ---Tie
Gallup Tracking 09/05 - 09/07 2733 RV 49 44 -------McCain +5
--------------
And crude continues down despite Ike ($105.32; 1:00 AM). Could be because congress is talking drilling:
A bipartisan group, originally known as the Gang of Ten, that has crafted a drilling compromise gained more members and has grown to 22 senators. The group has proposed allowing drilling 50 miles off the coasts of Virginia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia and off the Gulf coast of Florida.
Separately, Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., was preparing a proposal that also would include drilling in the currently off-limits eastern Gulf of Mexico and possibly elsewhere.....
Republican leaders are expected to push for broader offshore drilling and are likely to call for lifting drilling bans along both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts as well as the eastern Gulf of Mexico. They also have strongly opposed any additional taxes on oil companies....
Meanwhile, House Republican leaders on Monday demanded an end to all of the drilling bans on the Outer Continental Shelf's federal waters as well as in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
"We want a vote," House GOP leader John Boehner R-Ohio, declared at a gathering of more than 40 House Republicans on the steps of the Capitol, demanding that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., allow floor consideration of the Republican energy package.
What will happen who knows, but if we drill, the price plummets, because the shortage of oil is as fake as Obama is great or Global Warming is threatening. "Investors", the pension funds, etc., know that, and so they've been getting out now, steadily, since Bush first lifted the Executive Ban on off-shore drilling. Not a drop of new oil, but a threat of new oil, and that's enough to deflate the bubble of these irrational prices. Prices will move down toward the "last barrel" price of production. --Of course, the threat of new oil has to remain creditable.
posted by mouse at 8:53 PM
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