We're all George Bush Now

In keeping with my slowly developing cognitive insight into emotional matters that to a non-dope should be instantly obvious, I don't think that the hostility I suffer from Obamabot friends has anything to do with me. The very opposite; they don't see me, they see George Bush. --Of course, they never saw George Bush either. He was merely the enemy they could hate. Because he wasn't really there, but merely held the power they wanted for themselves, their hatred didn't have to have any truth to it, or fairness or balance or any connection to reality at all. He was merely a power to be destroyed. The usurper of their power.

Hatred is a habit. What George Bush suffered so viciously and unfairly for eight years I suffer now, but not for any power I have but for my threat to the power that now is theirs. That this makes no sense, being that I'm just a guy who engages in conversation, doesn't matter at all, the habit has formed the mind, and where power is the consideration, hatred is the expression.

I shouldn't be surprised. This is just a simple transference. In political conversation these last years, any defense of Bush led to a vicious outburst against him. They were very angry at me, of course, but it was Bush they attacked. Bush isn't there now when I attack Obama, but the hatred is, so they attack me. --There is some restraint yet, but I'm sure it will pass.

Is there anything optimistic in this? Possibly one thing: There is no cost to attacking a President, especially since most of the people you know are going to agree with you anyway, but there is quite a cost to attacking a friend. They won't be your friend much longer.

I see some value to this. The people who so viscerally support Obama are going to become a closed group. That means that while they might be thugs, at least their numbers won't spread. They will encyst themselves... at least until they get their brown shirt Civilian Corps, when they can add fear to their bad manners.

The problem of course is that there are so many of them. They will have the power of the government, which is so utterly immense, and they have the press, whose function anyway is to offend the inferior (so they can't be deterred by losing the friends they don't have anyway.) I'm not saying we're not in for a very hard time, only that the hate-the nonbeliever phenomena, considered as a social disease, is to some degree self-limiting.

--It is interesting. He's only been just President Elect for one week now, and in my judgment he's already stacking up negative chits for his handling of the economy. Thank the Lord for irrationality, it can have it's utility.

--The people who don't like him now because he's a Democrat, are going to like him even less as time goes on. Bad times create anger, and the bad times haven't really yet hit. It takes awhile for Wall Street to trickle down to Main Street.

--My immediate concern these last few days has been personal, just how to conduct myself as the daily arguments arise. I still don't have the response fully worked out, because the element of personal attack is new... --I am wondering what part of the Barack coalition will crack first? There always are fringe groups. When the left has power the left fractures. Since Republicans are so weak now that might be their greatest strength. The Obama team is disciplined, they're Chicago. I'm not sure about the expanded team. After all, there is no vision other than government power; but it's clear, power is meant more for me than thee.

--(At some point I'll consider the Obama/Axlerod intent: New Russian or Old Soviet?)

--I am curious how academics are going to respond, because, while they now have "one of their own" it's "not really", he's affirmative action. I'm wondering when the snottiness and snark will start.

I Know Who's Side I'm On

My, these Obama types sure can get angry. And turn on a dime, never mind this business of friendship or respect. But I guess that's the nature of conversion, you leave your past behind.

Think I'll type out a note from last night:

Woods walk fast. Was losing the light again. I simply have got to start getting out earlier but it's hard to get out early when night time comes in the middle of the afternoon.

Did see the big beaver mama. That was kind of interesting. I was on the North river slowly moving north, right on the shore line --and she came swimming past me from behind and maybe just fifteen feet out. A few feet farther, she turned, seemed to inspect me, and then went swimming pell-mell back and out of sight. I don't speak beaver and so wasn't able to inquire as to her thoughts, and she may not have spoken anyway, but it sure did seem that she swam to overtake me for some reason of beaver consideration and then, satisfied, rapidly swam a very long way back.

I also noticed there are no Robins. For a month now I've been seeing dense numbers in varying small sections of wood, maybe a couple of hundred in a mere twenty yard radius. At first I thought it was a flock working its way south --but then I continued to see them here and there day after day. They sure were being leisurely in their migration. Then it occurred to me what I was seeing was a succession of flocks, each serially passing through. This would be consistent with my seeing them in tight but varying areas. Whatever, the last flock now seems through. That probably happened Saturday, our first snow, and the day I saw the eagle so agitated.

--I believe anger should be amused, and rage should be light. Like a knife. It makes no sense to bombard an enemy with noise, they cover their ears. There has to be a target, there has to be precision, there has to be penetration. I'm thinking primarily of writing. Person to person it might be useful to bite off their nose.

I'm not certain just what it is we face but I know I've never seen anything like it before. It's not merely the right against the left. It is that of course, but it's also the right against the left with the left on some sort of religious steroid. There has to be some technique of personal battle, though I don't know yet quite what that might be. I content myself so far with saying: I know who's side I'm on. --But there might be one technique in the battle that shouldn't be overlooked: battle. Your friends might not find righteousness so much fun if you let them know you might punch their lights out.

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Something just occurred to me and this is encouraging. What if this worship crap is just an affectation, an excuse, like being drunk is an excuse, for a bastard to be a bastard? I certainly have had violent arguments in the past --I'm not shy about a certain amount of heat-- the difference now is the hair trigger. Any slight, and --Bam!-- I'm hit with the wrath of the righteous. It's so sudden it sort of takes the air out of the lungs --and it is oddly, insensitively nasty. But these are the same people --the same kind of people and sometimes the same people-- who would fight with me in the past. It's just that in the past they seemed to feel some need to defend their position, and if that proved difficult, fell back on hatred, toward Bush, towards Cheney-- but it was not hatred toward me! This seems the real difference: Bambi says it's okay to hate your friends!

This is interesting. I think I have discovered something.

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Mark Steyn:

Unlike those excitable countries where the peasants overrun the presidential palace, settled democratic societies rarely vote to “go left.” Yet oddly enough that's where they've all gone....

I disagree with my fellow conservatives who think the Obama-Pelosi-Reid-Frank liberal behemoth will so obviously screw up that they'll be routed in two or four years' time. The President-elect's so-called “tax cut” will absolve 48 percent of Americans from paying any federal income tax at all, while those that are left will pay more. Just under half the population will be, as Daniel Henninger pointed out in the Wall Street Journal, on the dole. By 2012, it will be more than half, and this will be an electorate where the majority of the electorate will be able to vote itself more lollipops from the minority of their compatriots still dumb enough to prioritize self-reliance, dynamism, and innovation over the sedating cocoon of the nanny state. That is the death of the American idea

A bit pessimistic for such a funny guy. He suggests that in 2012 we ought to at least have an American running against Barry --somebody a not-McCain-- somebody who advocates economic dynamism, self-reliance, individual liberty, The first Amendment, the Second Amendment.... That way we could at least chose: Give me Liberty or Give me...my Nanny.

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The greatest part of insight on emotional matters is just being able to finally recognize the obvious.

Bad Advice from a Nice Girl

Will have to expand on this late tonight, but Neo-Neocon has an advice piece out today: Avoid Barack Derangement Syndrome. We should all "take a deep breath." Apparently her idea is that we should all watch the bulldozer, politely. After it runs over our heads and squashes out our brains we can say: "Yes, indeed, it is a bulldozer." This is rational, apparently, and I suppose honorable, and at least we won't be like those nasty people on the left. I call this DBD --Deep Breath Derangement.

I will have to consider a more careful response, but I think she, and many like her, just don't want to recognize the internal danger we now face. "It will turn out all right, Pretend." It's fine to pray but to pretend is insane.

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7:30 PM

Did my woods walk. Had to do it quick 'cause I was losing light. When you walk fast you don't see much. Did see the little beaver. Such a young little squirt he doesn't quite realize he ought to be afraid of me --or at least of those of us who walk on two legs.

It did occur to me --actually this thought occurs often-- that those creatures, those trees, the flow of the river, were about the same ten thousand years ago as they are now, and ten thousand years hence, when America is no longer even an historical memory, will be the same still. It's nice to know there's some permanence in the world.

But America will disappear and be forgotten. But we've had a good run, it's been a good nation, the only question now is: For how many years more?

I guess this fear of the extinction of our liberties would be considered "extreme", but please God, don't let me ever be referred to by others, politely, as "reasonable".

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I think I'll give Neo-neo a break, after all she is a girl. I think instead I'll focus on some local guys, the guys at Powerline, normally not dumb. This was posted by Paul Mirengoff; he's giving the Marquess of Queensberry rules to conservatives in their opposition to an Obama administration. First Rule:

Pray that President Obama achieves greatness in office.

"Greatness", heavens.

Now, I know Obama is going to take us just as far left as he can. Mirengoff wants a great leftist leader. The greatest leftist leader of all time was Stalin. Mirengoff wants Stalin for America.

Is this an unfair reading on my part?

He then takes us through a series of Boy Scout "niceness" rules for how we must respond to our new President:

Don't assume that Obama is always wrong.
Be loyal in your opposition
Be patient in your opposition
Be persistent in your opposition
Be fair in your opposition
Be skeptical in your opposition ...&
Don't hate
Don't obsess

What a syrupy, blithering idiot. He forgot to include "Drink a nice glass of warm milk." And he forgot to include the only thing that he really had in mind: "Hey guys, this guy's black. We gotta walk on eggshells." How about just one rule: "Destroy the damn bastard."

I do think we're in for a hard time. The number of cautions we're going to get from PC conservatives is going to be stupefying, and the charges of racism from everybody else will be unending. Ugly before it gets better. --I'm kind of hoping Russia will nuke Duzzledorff, or at least that there's some big crisis fast. Maybe that will get people serious. The one thing I dearly hope we do not have is peace. If we have peace during depression the government will step in to "set things straight" and the left will succeed splendidly. We have to pray for catastrophe somewhere so we'll not have catastrophe at home.

Footprints in the Snows of Time

A touch depressed. Went for my first winter walk.

Not much winter. Temp was maybe 33-35 degrees, above freezing anyway, at least when I started out. Darkly gray, a bit windy --some snow. At some places I actually left footprints, that makes it winter.

Quite a good walk though. I saw the Great Horned Owl sitting in the near tip-top of a skeleton tree across the water on Blue Bird Island; and I watched a Bald Eagle flying about, and about, back-and-forth. If I take the island as the center, his radius of flight was less than a quarter mile. Three times he flew over me at maybe only fifty feet, turning back --huge-- as though checking me out. That stretch of the walk, north along the river and then a return along the same path, takes about a half hour. I saw him that entire time. Often I see him there, but normally only for the time it takes for him to take flight to somewhere else, but today he was an agitated bird. I was thinking it might have something to do with the snow. As I said, it was very little and much like sleet though clearly snow. If was the first formal proof of the changing of the season. Maybe somehow that got him upset. It got me upset.

Back at my place I took a brief nap. Waking, the sun was dead. There was chill in the room, it was black outside my window, and I was thinking of my dead friends....

Winters shouldn't happen so often.

How about this? How long before John McCain and his newest "gang of fourteen" reach across the isle and destroy any chance for a Republican barrier to a Democrat agenda? It would make him the darling of the Liberal press again. Country first, you know.

Actually, I do believe he believes that, Country First, though I just don't know if he's philosophically bright enough to know what that means. And I genuinely don't know. His positions seem to splat all over the place. Was that because he all along has been positioning himself as a centrist for his run for President? Is it just ersatz? His presidential ambitions over, can he change? Will he see now the left as a threat? Will he hold firm? Will he see that opposition is the true defense of his country?

I do think if he set himself to do battle he could be effective. But I just don't think he sees the enemy. As he said himself, there was a time in his life when he was "tied up", but that was back when the internal enemy was first plotting and he didn't see it at all. He just doesn't know what he's up against.

Woods Wander Wonder

Back from my walk. Late start, had to do the circuit fast, so saw little but did see the Great Horned Owl again in the Pondo Woods. He's been hanging out there now for a couple of weeks.

I'd gone about to the end of my path north along the river. Decided to turn back, because the weather was close to raw and it was darkling more rapidly than normal. And that's when I heard the soft --Hoot-- behind me. I turned, looked, listened, and had an odd directional clarity as to the source of sound. Normally the hoot is such a resonant whisper that there's no way to clearly sense just where from out of the dark woods it's coming.

I took a few steps more... and there the bugger was! just thirty feet in front of me and twenty feet up in a bare tree. He looked straight at me, the old tufted ears sticking up on either side of his broad head. And then he turned to the side again, leaned far forward, throat inflated, and said: "Hoot, da da, Hoo Hoo Hoo." --Each time I hear him there's a different pattern. I'm sure that means something, but I don't know what. --On each hoot, as the throat inflated, the head thrust forward, definitively, with a sort of nod, as if quite certain that what he had to say was very important. And then as I stepped further forward and underneath him he flew. What a suddenly massive bird with those blocky broad wings extended, twisting through the thick screen of twigs and branches, soundlessly.

Of course the reason my directional sense had been so accurate was because he had been so close. I rather expect he'd flown in behind me as I stood, pausing, looking up the river.

And I do wonder if we're going to continue as a democracy, or just continue as a Barack Banana Republic, a society that will continue to have elections but not one that the out party can ever win.

I keep hearing people argue that the press will turn on Obama once he disappoints his base. I don't believe that for a moment. I just don't see how he can disappoint --unless he does attempt to move to the center and govern wisely. But of course that's not going to happen; he wants what the press wants. Neither has any interest in a prosperous economy or a secure nation. Each want only a new government and one party rule. It's called conviction. The press simply isn't going to criticize as long as there's still an opposition, and a Constitution.

It's important to know when you have an enemy. I know we have an enemy in Al Qaeda, not everybody does. I know we have an enemy in Obama and the press and the Democrat leadership. Not everybody does.

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Really really funny from Iowahawk.

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Note:

STOCKS CONTINUE POST-ELECTION PLUNGE... Dow, S&P 500 Post Worst Two-Day Decline Since 1987..

I guess when Barack said that upon the historic day of his election the seas would begin to recede he just misspoke, he didn't mean "seas" he meant NYMEX. I'm sure somebody will clarify that.

--Crude briefly went below $60. That's pleasant. In my neighborhood a gallon a gas is $1.96

--Will have to sometime check out poll numbers. But: Obama slightly above Bush 2004; McCain about 5 million below Kerry. Wonder who stayed home. Youth vote about the same as always, but more heavily skewed toward Obama. Hispanics slightly more in favor of the Democrat than normal. That actually surprises me.

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I'll include this Neo-neocon post as one I found useful just after the election, the post and the comments. I entered some of my own. It was useful to find other people voicing the same apprehensions I felt. I really don't know if we've moved into a new structure of government --a kind of coup in fact and a great reduction of personal liberty (I know that's the liberal intent), or if it's just a swing to the left to be followed by a swing back to the right...? Actually, it is a movement left, no matter what. Our society has been moving left my entire life. And I know the left wants totalitarian rule, I presume that will be the end of our democratic experiment. I see this as the simple course of history. But there is a question of just how rapidly it will happen, and how completely...? And there is no reason that such a huge nation needs to stay united as one. There is no way every section would accept totalitarian rule from the East coast. I this consideration I'm thinking though in terms of two hundred years --or many anyway. What's more immediately important is what's going to happen in the next dozen. I do feel a foreboding I've not felt before... It is interesting that what bothers me most is the nut leftist press, Orwellian, creating reality... And this really is a very interesting awareness. Half the country already agrees with me that the press is corrupt. I do think if we could maintain an intelligent press we could maintain an intelligent people. --There seems something oddly clarifying in stating the totally obvious. Maybe I'm just very tired. I know that my greatest drive my entire life has been to keep my mind free. As long as I can get information I'm personally in fairly good shape. What's true for me has got to be true for others. If there are a lot of others there's a political movement. --I wonder if I'm thinking of some sort of dual nation within one? I think I am tired.

It Can't Happen Here; the 1st day

I might as well get my opinion down. The Liberal mind is totalitarian, now they've got their champion and he has immense advantages. First, the financial meltdown. Who can object to the government assuming powers it's never had before? Aren't we in bad shape? Don't we need a strong hand? Haven't we started already with our "Paulson Plan" and the Treasury's buy-in to major banks? Don't we need more?

And this is a man with an extraordinary armor: "I don't like his plan, it's an infringement on free enterprise, on personal liberties." --"You're a racist."

I don't see any possibility of argument, discussion, or opposition. Cowed by the charge of racism by those who would use race as a tool.

This is a bad time. The first black man to be President is the worst black man possible. This is a very bad day for America.

Oh well, conflict happens. Empires decline, nations decline, democracy ends.

There has to be a battle, and the first battle has to be the personal and collective one to speak out on policy, and to insist with all vigor and even anger that policy is a legitimate aspect of government. --Kind of strange, to have to fight to establish the right to speech as a part of governance.

But maybe I over emphasize my worry. I don't at all overstate the totalitarian mindset, perhaps I overstate the weakness of those who would oppose it.

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A few notes:

--In the Senate McCain might do a great deal of damage. He'll "reach across the aisle," meaning that he will immensely weaken, perhaps destroy, the already limited possibility of Republican opposition. His problem in Barack's words, is: "He doesn't know what he's up against."

--It's possible that our foreign allies, so delighted that we are no longer racist, will be the ones who will reestablish our right to free speech. There's no doubt that, as soon as it's again in their own interest, there will be no hesitancy in allowing their own speech to flow forth.

--And self-interest can be of great utility in the service of liberty. The great unity of the Democrat party has been their desire to regain power. They have power now, perhaps now they will shatter. --The problem, of course, is they want so much more power. I don't know if that can hold them together or not.

--Finally, for this post: It's now no longer necessary to seek out Barack's past to find his character. He's public now. Those he knows are not those he didn't know when he was only eight years old. He's Chicago now... right in front of us.

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623 PM
Back to my lonely home. Walk was gray, with occasional sprinkles but very nicely warm, maybe 65 degrees. No wild life this time, though I did briefly see an eagle at quite a distance. --Woods felt a little bit wild, sort of a mellow wild. That's unusual, maybe unique. I am pretty pooped, and I am feeling really down. I do see Barack as a Marxist and a revolutionary. The only thing I don't know is how much he'll be able to do.

I note "responsible" conservatives don't touch this concept with a ten foot pole. I'm thinking of Bill Crystal. That's reasonable. It's certainly a viewpoint just now shared by very few in the public. Crystal does hope Obama "won't go too far left." That's a reasonable formulation, in terms of being a politically acceptable statement. But he will go as far left as he can, and fast. I do think he's insane, his ego is immense. His rise to the most powerful position on earth has been rapid and with no effort but an aim toward this end. He succeeded. There's no reason to expect caution, or any personal sense of limits.

Note:

--If Republicans in the House don't become strongly conservative they'll have no cohesion and no force at all. Pelosi is going to be radical. Republicans have to at least hope they have a voice.

--Obama picked Emanuel as White House Chief of Staff. That means he's going hardball, which is his manner. Some Republicans think Emanuel will be a restraining force, in that he favors free trade and national defense... I just don't think Republicans have any idea of the ruthlessness they're going to face.

--A nice confirmation of my views on McCain as Bozo Bipartisan Man in the Senate.

Obama will get the most lavish and extended honeymoon in history. Everytime he walks to the podium without falling down will be trumpeted as the greatest accomplishment since MacArthur returned to the Philippines. It will be the natural tendency of Republicans to join in the praise, and worse, to try to be "bipartisan" when it comes to legislation that is manifestly bad for the country and abhorrent to conservative principles. This tendency will be magnified by the Republicans' fear that any opposition to Obama's policies will be portrayed as motivated by racism rather than principle.

Senator McCain is an American hero, a remarkable man. I can think of few I respect more. But he's likely to be the first to be leading the charge toward bipartisanship. This would be a mistake of galactic proportions. This must be resisted.

I could easily quote the whole thing. It's splendid.

November Pleasure?

Big day. Think I'll vote early, so I can sit around and do some blogging tonight.

--My partisan hopes are clear: --Republican.
--My hopes for the safety of the nation in terms of the capacity of the leader are clear: --McCain.

After that it gets murky. I do not know what "McCainism" is. For that matter I no longer know what "Republicanism" is, or even "Conservatism". I certainly have a lot of views on the matter, but nothing coherent. But "Baryism"? I know what that is, The State! So I certainly know what I fear. The core of all of my political thinking is fear of the totalitarian mindset.

A subset of my thought is concern with how well the monolithic media might control thought. How effective has statist MSM been in convincing Americans that Barry the Twit should be President? This will be hard to judge. He shouldn't even be the nominee, but once the nominee he is the Democrat, and this is a Democrat year, so the simple vote total doesn't so much speak of the media's propaganda success (other than that their covering for him has allowed him to be viable at all). So I'm going to presume something different, that the pollsters and the press are one and the same. If the vote is less than the prediction this to that degree anyway is a certain rejection of the media. In fact it's only by this rejection that it's possible at all that McCain can win. --The aspect of the media propaganda that I'm here considering is their simple thuggery, their making it racist to vote against a black guy. In terms of their keeping him afloat at all they certainly have been successful.

If somehow the media can be whipped, my that will be a pleasure.

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Heaven's, it's already past 2:00 PM EST and as far as I can tell not one network has yet called the race for Obama? This is very very strange. I sense conspiracy.

But am now going to go out and vote, and maybe walk a bit in the woods. What a lovely lovely Indian Summer day.

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Just did my vote at 2:15. No line. About 15 booths, one vacant as I voted. Seems to be a steady stream but not a crowd. Had very pleasant chats with the women behind the tables as my registration was being checked. Hard to believe such friendly, pleasing women are actually evil Democrats. 'Course, I was just being friendly and chatty myself, they had no idea of my own hidden identity as an evil Republican. I suppose that's why they didn't shoot me. --Probably one Republican vote now in this precinct. I guess one party rule does bring us all together.

Note: Youth vote seems low, as I'd expected. The Messiah has gone stale. It's further, my speculation, that the black percentages might not so very strongly favor The One as has been expected, the reason being that some blacks by now may have decided to vote their faith rather than their race. I don't think a serious Christian can comfortably vote for Barack. This might have some meaning in places such as Georgia. This might explain why neither McCain nor Barack have campaigned there even though the pollsters say it's close. Possibly the two campaigns know that's not true, and it might be because of this change in the black vote. --Pure speculation on my part.

A worrisome thing is that apparently the real surge in voting is among those 65 and older. First, it's hard to believe there's much of a surge, since they anyway turn out in large numbers; but two, it's worrisome because I'm not sure they're going for McCain. Old farts worry about their SS check. With the financial turbulence, I fear there's some possibility they might be going for the Democrat, the one who will "keep things the way they are." It would be strange if Barack gets a boost because he's considered status quo.

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3:50 PM
Read some. Not much news. No leaked exit polls? That means either that the media learned it's lesson from 2004, or that they're not looking good for Obama, or that they're looking so good they don't feel they need to try to depress the Republican vote. --I believe in being incisive in my analysis.

Think I'll note that I have been oddly sanguine for almost two days now. I can't justify this by argument, I think it's just because I've come to dismiss the polls as much as I dismiss the media. I simply never any longer take anything seriously that I read from MSM, I know they're wrong and that in time I'll get the real information. In terms of what's true they're meaningless. Now I think I feel the same way about polls. There is a problem with this. I don't in fact know that the polls are wrong, and, while with the media I can easily dismiss the accuracy of their reporting, that doesn't at all mean they don't influence people who spend less time reading. Crappy reporting can still lead to firm conviction. The polls could be showing that. But I don't think so. I think the pollsters, in their "weighting" of their data, are as out to lunch and as purposely deceptive as is the media.

But now another walk in this splendid afternoon weather.

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6:15 PM
Back from my walk. Utterly lovely weather. Not quite the pleasure as normal because I had my transistor with me to get the latest. No latest, just a distraction. On a walk one watches, or muses. I was trying to do that, plus listen. That's multitasking. Gave me a headache.

Note: Heavy turnout. I'm thinking that this year heavy turnout favors Republicans. My reasoning is that heavy turnout means new or occasional voters. For somebody to get off their butt they have to have motivation. What special motivation do Democrats have? Blacks have a special motivation, but who else? I don't buy that youth are excited; that excitement passed once Barack became Chicago. So I see no new voters excited except blacks.

The other powerful motivation a voter has is dislike. I can't see that there's that much dislike toward McCain/Palin; it in fact seems dislike must be exhausted, because it was so powerfully directed toward Bush, and he's already been "defeated." However, on the Republican side there's immense dislike. They don't like Obama --he might be President, and Republicans see him as totally unsuitable. That's a powerful motivation. And then there's immense annoyance with the press. That is going to get a lot of Republicans off the sofa. And not to forget, a lot of Red Staters love Sarah, so that's additional. So turnout this year is a plus for Republican. And more Democrats are going to vote McCain than Republicans Obama.

So far the substantiation of this thought is that the networks aren't making early calls. Indiana, Virginia, Georgia, not yet called. --Polls have been closed over a half hour.

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7:28
From Hugh: Obama hasn't yet taken one red state, hasn't yet broken the Bush bag. --McConnell hangs on in Kentucky, but so far three seats lost. That's 54 now for Dems. --Pennsylvania still without any precincts reporting, yet ABC and MSNBC have called it for Obama. Maybe they're confident, maybe they're deluded, maybe it's a conscious attempt at voter suppression? I guess I should note that they certainly are deluded... but could be right. --Shoot, Pennsylvania called by Barone for Obama. Bad one. No numbers yet.

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7:44
Cambliss in Georgia. Georgia as well for McCain. So far it's blue/blue; Red/Red. Unfortunately it seems it's the red states that are being too close to call quickly. That's not a good sign, but does mean the vote is close, thus wins are possible. Clearly not a landslide election. Good. I still hope for a McCain victory. It does look bleak.

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8:07
Geraghty: Fox News calls New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan for Obama. And the killer - they call Ohio for Obama.

Looks like it's over.

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Ha! Retraction!!! Ohio was marked wrong!!! McCain yet lives!!!!

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8:30
Ohio recalled for Obama. I can see no possibility for victory now. Unless somebody made a mistake, --Interestingly, the Northern Alliance isn't going along with the Ohio call. They don't have selected precinct information... Actually, sounds like a one hour delayed broadcast. So it probably is over.

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10:06
Race called for Obama. Oh my. --I'm not sure all of the calls are right, but it looks like he's got enough of a margin it wouldn't matter if they were off on say, Ohio or Virginia, except real embarrassment. --Going to take awhile to adjust. --Going to take a break.

Our Totalitarian Time

Really tense. That's because of Tuesday. This I fear is our totalitarian time. There certainly seem to be many eager to subvert liberty, and many eager to submit. This is the way democracies end.

Actually, the way the press covers for Obama is no different than the way they covered for Clinton, though different maybe somewhat in degree. The difference though, the great difference, is in the man. Clinton did orient toward the center; Obama is left, Obama nuts. I suppose the only gift he's giving America is that he's also a dolt. Once it becomes okay to criticize a black guy --and that will break out suddenly, amidst viciousness-- he will be seen as both stupid and foreign. It will be an unpleasant time. --'Course, McCain could still pull it out. I regard most of the polls as as in the tank for Obama as the press. Could be McCain actually leads. If that's so it's because there are a lot of Americans left.

--Have had difficulty putting my thoughts down on this. Perhaps I'll do it tomorrow.

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Wrote a laid back email to a friend who's life or death depends on an Obama victory:

Dear William,

I'm told you're a very busy fellow so I don't know if you'll get this, but for old times sake I thought I would give you my predictions.

First, I have mentioned to you that I'm a Republican. I don't know if I've mentioned that I call myself a "Dead Dog Republican". That is: If it's a dead dog, if it's a Republican, I'll vote for it. So I'm calling this race for McCain.

This isn't entirely mere optimistic partisanship. I do have a number of ideas as to underlying dynamics, but also one poll that supports my thought, IBD/TIPP. That's Investor's Business Daily (I don't know what the TIPP stands for). IBD is an exceptionally conservative publication and they sure don't like Obama, so that could skew their results, but they didn't much like John Kerry either, and yet they called the 2004 election closer than any other poll, so they can't simply be dismissed. Anyway, as of today they have it:


OBAMA 46.7%... MCCAIN 44.6%... NOT SURE 8.7%...


And it's my presumption undecideds will break for McCain. That's because, with it being so fashionable now to support Obama, if you say you're undecided, in fact you support McCain.

We'll see. I think Republicans will also do a bit better in the House and Senate than is being projected, though there will be losses.

The primary reason I'm making this judgment, which is counter to almost all polls and media opinion, is that I see a disconnect between the media excitement, and the mood of much of the public. The same things that excite a Chris Matthews, aren't even noticed by most Americans. They have their private lives, they simply don't see what all the fuss is about. These people will vote by the values they've pretty much always had, and that means it's probably pretty much a 50 / 50 election.

Roughly as many people will be firmly determined to vote for McCain as are excited to vote for Obama. Of course, everybody gets excited as the election nears, but still, the determining factor is mainly going to be: Do you lean Republican or do you lean Democrat? Despite the immense amount of hype, that split (hard and soft support) for the last 16 years has been pretty much equal, each party ending with about 50% of the vote. I expect it to be the same this year. I expect 90% of the analysis that this is a transformative election is pure hyperventilating. I expect most people will just vote their basic beliefs, and that will mean it's pretty much even-steven.

(Of course I'm speaking of the popular vote. How the Electoral College will turn out could be quite a different matter.)

I do consider people pretty stodgy in their ways. I see this race mainly as Republican vrs Democrat, rather than as McCain vrs Obama (despite all the personality puffery), and that's why I think it will be close.

We'll see.


See you, --Mouse

PS,
Congrats on the third coming child.

This is a bit misleading. I'm being laid back about what's going to happen Tuesday, I'm not at all laid back as to what will happen if there actually is an Obama administration.