November Pleasure?
Big day. Think I'll vote early, so I can sit around and do some blogging tonight.
--My partisan hopes are clear: --Republican.
--My hopes for the safety of the nation in terms of the capacity of the leader are clear: --McCain.
After that it gets murky. I do not know what "McCainism" is. For that matter I no longer know what "Republicanism" is, or even "Conservatism". I certainly have a lot of views on the matter, but nothing coherent. But "Baryism"? I know what that is, The State! So I certainly know what I fear. The core of all of my political thinking is fear of the totalitarian mindset.
A subset of my thought is concern with how well the monolithic media might control thought. How effective has statist MSM been in convincing Americans that Barry the Twit should be President? This will be hard to judge. He shouldn't even be the nominee, but once the nominee he is the Democrat, and this is a Democrat year, so the simple vote total doesn't so much speak of the media's propaganda success (other than that their covering for him has allowed him to be viable at all). So I'm going to presume something different, that the pollsters and the press are one and the same. If the vote is less than the prediction this to that degree anyway is a certain rejection of the media. In fact it's only by this rejection that it's possible at all that McCain can win. --The aspect of the media propaganda that I'm here considering is their simple thuggery, their making it racist to vote against a black guy. In terms of their keeping him afloat at all they certainly have been successful.
If somehow the media can be whipped, my that will be a pleasure.
--------------
Heaven's, it's already past 2:00 PM EST and as far as I can tell not one network has yet called the race for Obama? This is very very strange. I sense conspiracy.
But am now going to go out and vote, and maybe walk a bit in the woods. What a lovely lovely Indian Summer day.
-----------------
Just did my vote at 2:15. No line. About 15 booths, one vacant as I voted. Seems to be a steady stream but not a crowd. Had very pleasant chats with the women behind the tables as my registration was being checked. Hard to believe such friendly, pleasing women are actually evil Democrats. 'Course, I was just being friendly and chatty myself, they had no idea of my own hidden identity as an evil Republican. I suppose that's why they didn't shoot me. --Probably one Republican vote now in this precinct. I guess one party rule does bring us all together.
Note: Youth vote seems low, as I'd expected. The Messiah has gone stale. It's further, my speculation, that the black percentages might not so very strongly favor The One as has been expected, the reason being that some blacks by now may have decided to vote their faith rather than their race. I don't think a serious Christian can comfortably vote for Barack. This might have some meaning in places such as Georgia. This might explain why neither McCain nor Barack have campaigned there even though the pollsters say it's close. Possibly the two campaigns know that's not true, and it might be because of this change in the black vote. --Pure speculation on my part.
A worrisome thing is that apparently the real surge in voting is among those 65 and older. First, it's hard to believe there's much of a surge, since they anyway turn out in large numbers; but two, it's worrisome because I'm not sure they're going for McCain. Old farts worry about their SS check. With the financial turbulence, I fear there's some possibility they might be going for the Democrat, the one who will "keep things the way they are." It would be strange if Barack gets a boost because he's considered status quo.
---------------
3:50 PM
Read some. Not much news. No leaked exit polls? That means either that the media learned it's lesson from 2004, or that they're not looking good for Obama, or that they're looking so good they don't feel they need to try to depress the Republican vote. --I believe in being incisive in my analysis.
Think I'll note that I have been oddly sanguine for almost two days now. I can't justify this by argument, I think it's just because I've come to dismiss the polls as much as I dismiss the media. I simply never any longer take anything seriously that I read from MSM, I know they're wrong and that in time I'll get the real information. In terms of what's true they're meaningless. Now I think I feel the same way about polls. There is a problem with this. I don't in fact know that the polls are wrong, and, while with the media I can easily dismiss the accuracy of their reporting, that doesn't at all mean they don't influence people who spend less time reading. Crappy reporting can still lead to firm conviction. The polls could be showing that. But I don't think so. I think the pollsters, in their "weighting" of their data, are as out to lunch and as purposely deceptive as is the media.
But now another walk in this splendid afternoon weather.
---------------
6:15 PM
Back from my walk. Utterly lovely weather. Not quite the pleasure as normal because I had my transistor with me to get the latest. No latest, just a distraction. On a walk one watches, or muses. I was trying to do that, plus listen. That's multitasking. Gave me a headache.
Note: Heavy turnout. I'm thinking that this year heavy turnout favors Republicans. My reasoning is that heavy turnout means new or occasional voters. For somebody to get off their butt they have to have motivation. What special motivation do Democrats have? Blacks have a special motivation, but who else? I don't buy that youth are excited; that excitement passed once Barack became Chicago. So I see no new voters excited except blacks.
The other powerful motivation a voter has is dislike. I can't see that there's that much dislike toward McCain/Palin; it in fact seems dislike must be exhausted, because it was so powerfully directed toward Bush, and he's already been "defeated." However, on the Republican side there's immense dislike. They don't like Obama --he might be President, and Republicans see him as totally unsuitable. That's a powerful motivation. And then there's immense annoyance with the press. That is going to get a lot of Republicans off the sofa. And not to forget, a lot of Red Staters love Sarah, so that's additional. So turnout this year is a plus for Republican. And more Democrats are going to vote McCain than Republicans Obama.
So far the substantiation of this thought is that the networks aren't making early calls. Indiana, Virginia, Georgia, not yet called. --Polls have been closed over a half hour.
--------------
7:28
From Hugh: Obama hasn't yet taken one red state, hasn't yet broken the Bush bag. --McConnell hangs on in Kentucky, but so far three seats lost. That's 54 now for Dems. --Pennsylvania still without any precincts reporting, yet ABC and MSNBC have called it for Obama. Maybe they're confident, maybe they're deluded, maybe it's a conscious attempt at voter suppression? I guess I should note that they certainly are deluded... but could be right. --Shoot, Pennsylvania called by Barone for Obama. Bad one. No numbers yet.
----------------
7:44
Cambliss in Georgia. Georgia as well for McCain. So far it's blue/blue; Red/Red. Unfortunately it seems it's the red states that are being too close to call quickly. That's not a good sign, but does mean the vote is close, thus wins are possible. Clearly not a landslide election. Good. I still hope for a McCain victory. It does look bleak.
------------------
8:07
Geraghty: Fox News calls New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan for Obama. And the killer - they call Ohio for Obama.
Looks like it's over.
-----------------
Ha! Retraction!!! Ohio was marked wrong!!! McCain yet lives!!!!
----------------
8:30
Ohio recalled for Obama. I can see no possibility for victory now. Unless somebody made a mistake, --Interestingly, the Northern Alliance isn't going along with the Ohio call. They don't have selected precinct information... Actually, sounds like a one hour delayed broadcast. So it probably is over.
-----------------
10:06
Race called for Obama. Oh my. --I'm not sure all of the calls are right, but it looks like he's got enough of a margin it wouldn't matter if they were off on say, Ohio or Virginia, except real embarrassment. --Going to take awhile to adjust. --Going to take a break.
--My partisan hopes are clear: --Republican.
--My hopes for the safety of the nation in terms of the capacity of the leader are clear: --McCain.
After that it gets murky. I do not know what "McCainism" is. For that matter I no longer know what "Republicanism" is, or even "Conservatism". I certainly have a lot of views on the matter, but nothing coherent. But "Baryism"? I know what that is, The State! So I certainly know what I fear. The core of all of my political thinking is fear of the totalitarian mindset.
A subset of my thought is concern with how well the monolithic media might control thought. How effective has statist MSM been in convincing Americans that Barry the Twit should be President? This will be hard to judge. He shouldn't even be the nominee, but once the nominee he is the Democrat, and this is a Democrat year, so the simple vote total doesn't so much speak of the media's propaganda success (other than that their covering for him has allowed him to be viable at all). So I'm going to presume something different, that the pollsters and the press are one and the same. If the vote is less than the prediction this to that degree anyway is a certain rejection of the media. In fact it's only by this rejection that it's possible at all that McCain can win. --The aspect of the media propaganda that I'm here considering is their simple thuggery, their making it racist to vote against a black guy. In terms of their keeping him afloat at all they certainly have been successful.
If somehow the media can be whipped, my that will be a pleasure.
--------------
Heaven's, it's already past 2:00 PM EST and as far as I can tell not one network has yet called the race for Obama? This is very very strange. I sense conspiracy.
But am now going to go out and vote, and maybe walk a bit in the woods. What a lovely lovely Indian Summer day.
-----------------
Just did my vote at 2:15. No line. About 15 booths, one vacant as I voted. Seems to be a steady stream but not a crowd. Had very pleasant chats with the women behind the tables as my registration was being checked. Hard to believe such friendly, pleasing women are actually evil Democrats. 'Course, I was just being friendly and chatty myself, they had no idea of my own hidden identity as an evil Republican. I suppose that's why they didn't shoot me. --Probably one Republican vote now in this precinct. I guess one party rule does bring us all together.
Note: Youth vote seems low, as I'd expected. The Messiah has gone stale. It's further, my speculation, that the black percentages might not so very strongly favor The One as has been expected, the reason being that some blacks by now may have decided to vote their faith rather than their race. I don't think a serious Christian can comfortably vote for Barack. This might have some meaning in places such as Georgia. This might explain why neither McCain nor Barack have campaigned there even though the pollsters say it's close. Possibly the two campaigns know that's not true, and it might be because of this change in the black vote. --Pure speculation on my part.
A worrisome thing is that apparently the real surge in voting is among those 65 and older. First, it's hard to believe there's much of a surge, since they anyway turn out in large numbers; but two, it's worrisome because I'm not sure they're going for McCain. Old farts worry about their SS check. With the financial turbulence, I fear there's some possibility they might be going for the Democrat, the one who will "keep things the way they are." It would be strange if Barack gets a boost because he's considered status quo.
---------------
3:50 PM
Read some. Not much news. No leaked exit polls? That means either that the media learned it's lesson from 2004, or that they're not looking good for Obama, or that they're looking so good they don't feel they need to try to depress the Republican vote. --I believe in being incisive in my analysis.
Think I'll note that I have been oddly sanguine for almost two days now. I can't justify this by argument, I think it's just because I've come to dismiss the polls as much as I dismiss the media. I simply never any longer take anything seriously that I read from MSM, I know they're wrong and that in time I'll get the real information. In terms of what's true they're meaningless. Now I think I feel the same way about polls. There is a problem with this. I don't in fact know that the polls are wrong, and, while with the media I can easily dismiss the accuracy of their reporting, that doesn't at all mean they don't influence people who spend less time reading. Crappy reporting can still lead to firm conviction. The polls could be showing that. But I don't think so. I think the pollsters, in their "weighting" of their data, are as out to lunch and as purposely deceptive as is the media.
But now another walk in this splendid afternoon weather.
---------------
6:15 PM
Back from my walk. Utterly lovely weather. Not quite the pleasure as normal because I had my transistor with me to get the latest. No latest, just a distraction. On a walk one watches, or muses. I was trying to do that, plus listen. That's multitasking. Gave me a headache.
Note: Heavy turnout. I'm thinking that this year heavy turnout favors Republicans. My reasoning is that heavy turnout means new or occasional voters. For somebody to get off their butt they have to have motivation. What special motivation do Democrats have? Blacks have a special motivation, but who else? I don't buy that youth are excited; that excitement passed once Barack became Chicago. So I see no new voters excited except blacks.
The other powerful motivation a voter has is dislike. I can't see that there's that much dislike toward McCain/Palin; it in fact seems dislike must be exhausted, because it was so powerfully directed toward Bush, and he's already been "defeated." However, on the Republican side there's immense dislike. They don't like Obama --he might be President, and Republicans see him as totally unsuitable. That's a powerful motivation. And then there's immense annoyance with the press. That is going to get a lot of Republicans off the sofa. And not to forget, a lot of Red Staters love Sarah, so that's additional. So turnout this year is a plus for Republican. And more Democrats are going to vote McCain than Republicans Obama.
So far the substantiation of this thought is that the networks aren't making early calls. Indiana, Virginia, Georgia, not yet called. --Polls have been closed over a half hour.
--------------
7:28
From Hugh: Obama hasn't yet taken one red state, hasn't yet broken the Bush bag. --McConnell hangs on in Kentucky, but so far three seats lost. That's 54 now for Dems. --Pennsylvania still without any precincts reporting, yet ABC and MSNBC have called it for Obama. Maybe they're confident, maybe they're deluded, maybe it's a conscious attempt at voter suppression? I guess I should note that they certainly are deluded... but could be right. --Shoot, Pennsylvania called by Barone for Obama. Bad one. No numbers yet.
----------------
7:44
Cambliss in Georgia. Georgia as well for McCain. So far it's blue/blue; Red/Red. Unfortunately it seems it's the red states that are being too close to call quickly. That's not a good sign, but does mean the vote is close, thus wins are possible. Clearly not a landslide election. Good. I still hope for a McCain victory. It does look bleak.
------------------
8:07
Geraghty: Fox News calls New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan for Obama. And the killer - they call Ohio for Obama.
Looks like it's over.
-----------------
Ha! Retraction!!! Ohio was marked wrong!!! McCain yet lives!!!!
----------------
8:30
Ohio recalled for Obama. I can see no possibility for victory now. Unless somebody made a mistake, --Interestingly, the Northern Alliance isn't going along with the Ohio call. They don't have selected precinct information... Actually, sounds like a one hour delayed broadcast. So it probably is over.
-----------------
10:06
Race called for Obama. Oh my. --I'm not sure all of the calls are right, but it looks like he's got enough of a margin it wouldn't matter if they were off on say, Ohio or Virginia, except real embarrassment. --Going to take awhile to adjust. --Going to take a break.
posted by mouse at 10:12 AM
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