Our Totalitarian Time

Really tense. That's because of Tuesday. This I fear is our totalitarian time. There certainly seem to be many eager to subvert liberty, and many eager to submit. This is the way democracies end.

Actually, the way the press covers for Obama is no different than the way they covered for Clinton, though different maybe somewhat in degree. The difference though, the great difference, is in the man. Clinton did orient toward the center; Obama is left, Obama nuts. I suppose the only gift he's giving America is that he's also a dolt. Once it becomes okay to criticize a black guy --and that will break out suddenly, amidst viciousness-- he will be seen as both stupid and foreign. It will be an unpleasant time. --'Course, McCain could still pull it out. I regard most of the polls as as in the tank for Obama as the press. Could be McCain actually leads. If that's so it's because there are a lot of Americans left.

--Have had difficulty putting my thoughts down on this. Perhaps I'll do it tomorrow.

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Wrote a laid back email to a friend who's life or death depends on an Obama victory:

Dear William,

I'm told you're a very busy fellow so I don't know if you'll get this, but for old times sake I thought I would give you my predictions.

First, I have mentioned to you that I'm a Republican. I don't know if I've mentioned that I call myself a "Dead Dog Republican". That is: If it's a dead dog, if it's a Republican, I'll vote for it. So I'm calling this race for McCain.

This isn't entirely mere optimistic partisanship. I do have a number of ideas as to underlying dynamics, but also one poll that supports my thought, IBD/TIPP. That's Investor's Business Daily (I don't know what the TIPP stands for). IBD is an exceptionally conservative publication and they sure don't like Obama, so that could skew their results, but they didn't much like John Kerry either, and yet they called the 2004 election closer than any other poll, so they can't simply be dismissed. Anyway, as of today they have it:


OBAMA 46.7%... MCCAIN 44.6%... NOT SURE 8.7%...


And it's my presumption undecideds will break for McCain. That's because, with it being so fashionable now to support Obama, if you say you're undecided, in fact you support McCain.

We'll see. I think Republicans will also do a bit better in the House and Senate than is being projected, though there will be losses.

The primary reason I'm making this judgment, which is counter to almost all polls and media opinion, is that I see a disconnect between the media excitement, and the mood of much of the public. The same things that excite a Chris Matthews, aren't even noticed by most Americans. They have their private lives, they simply don't see what all the fuss is about. These people will vote by the values they've pretty much always had, and that means it's probably pretty much a 50 / 50 election.

Roughly as many people will be firmly determined to vote for McCain as are excited to vote for Obama. Of course, everybody gets excited as the election nears, but still, the determining factor is mainly going to be: Do you lean Republican or do you lean Democrat? Despite the immense amount of hype, that split (hard and soft support) for the last 16 years has been pretty much equal, each party ending with about 50% of the vote. I expect it to be the same this year. I expect 90% of the analysis that this is a transformative election is pure hyperventilating. I expect most people will just vote their basic beliefs, and that will mean it's pretty much even-steven.

(Of course I'm speaking of the popular vote. How the Electoral College will turn out could be quite a different matter.)

I do consider people pretty stodgy in their ways. I see this race mainly as Republican vrs Democrat, rather than as McCain vrs Obama (despite all the personality puffery), and that's why I think it will be close.

We'll see.


See you, --Mouse

PS,
Congrats on the third coming child.

This is a bit misleading. I'm being laid back about what's going to happen Tuesday, I'm not at all laid back as to what will happen if there actually is an Obama administration.