So, How Was Your Day?
Pretty much no coverage all day on the actual voting. From Fox I understand that Hillary is doing well in South Dakota and Obama is doing well in Montana. This is what every body expected, but no statements about the expected margins.
One correction: Apparently it's Montana that has the open primary, South Dakota is closed, so I got it backwards. By my "theorizing of a change in dynamics" though, an open primary should be the one that benefits Hillary. This is ignoring demographics, merely presuming performance will change somewhat within individual demographics, and presuming, in general, that a rural, fundamentally all white demographic is beneficial to Hillary. I have no idea why Montana would be more pro Obama than South Dakota? Maybe they're just more anti Hillary.
All the speculation today has been centered around the number of superdelegates Obama might pick up. To my mind that means nothing if Hillary chooses to decide it means nothing.
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8:09
Hillary's got South Dakota in the bag. Fox reports that with 9% of precincts reporting Hillary leads 56.08% to 43.92%. Landslide, wipeout, the nominee by acclamation! And I think McCain's got a shot too.
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8:19
At 14% Fox does project a Hillary win. Well, that's fun. Apparently they do expect a large margin because I can't believe the exit polling is extensive. I certainly hope for a wipeout. We'll see. Maybe an hour yet before anything from Montana.
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This is interesting, from pollster.com:
That might explain the Montana orientation, not that they're more pleased with Obama, but more offended by Hillary. Good, Montanans aren't creeps.
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8:58
The margin remains remarkably constant:
31% in: Hillary 55.85%, Obama 44.15%. --I must say I am indifferent to McCain's speech, or Obama's speech. I'm only interested in the poll numbers, and Hillary's speech. I'm waiting for the change in dynamism. --I would much prefer a 20 or 30 point win for Hillary.
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9:10
From Talk Left, who live blogged the speech, excerpts:
These are blogging paraphrases, but clearly no concession.
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Geraghty says: "One of the most defiant speeches I've ever heard."
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I note the networks called Montana for Obama immediately at the close of the polls. I wonder if the margins are really that strong, or if it's just part of the presumption?
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Montana numbers have been very slow to come in. I wonder if there's any possibility that it could be because the real numbers aren't turning out to match the projections?
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I must say I'm not terribly pleased with this "historic night". Nominating a black guy who's at the opposite end from what I admire in character and belief hardly seems a pleasing historical event. And now --unfortunately and probably-- it's Republicans who are going to have to face all the charges of racism. It's going to be an unhappy campaign.
Hillary can still help. It is possible, all her own personality deficits aside, that she could see a Barack presidency as a disaster for America, much in the way I do. It's possible she might stay in not simply from personal ambition but from love of country.
Anyway, stay in. It's one of my settled principles that you always make the other guy sweat, no matter how weak your hand. So, keep control of the delegates, keep a low profile, and wait. That seems the best course, and only course (presuming she does hope to keep Barack out of the presidency). This celebration of self just for voting for a black man may wear off. Right now probably 75% of America is celebrating probably about the way I am. Maybe that 75% in time will have some force. Hard though to say anything negative about a black guy who's liberal. Not proper. Has to be a black guy who's conservative, then he can be criticized just as much as if he were a Christian.
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Nice comment from Geraghty:
I always enjoy it when a man agrees with me.
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11:10
Montana results starting to come in. 26%. Looks like it's 60/40 Obama. Oh well.
One correction: Apparently it's Montana that has the open primary, South Dakota is closed, so I got it backwards. By my "theorizing of a change in dynamics" though, an open primary should be the one that benefits Hillary. This is ignoring demographics, merely presuming performance will change somewhat within individual demographics, and presuming, in general, that a rural, fundamentally all white demographic is beneficial to Hillary. I have no idea why Montana would be more pro Obama than South Dakota? Maybe they're just more anti Hillary.
All the speculation today has been centered around the number of superdelegates Obama might pick up. To my mind that means nothing if Hillary chooses to decide it means nothing.
----------------
8:09
Hillary's got South Dakota in the bag. Fox reports that with 9% of precincts reporting Hillary leads 56.08% to 43.92%. Landslide, wipeout, the nominee by acclamation! And I think McCain's got a shot too.
----------------
8:19
At 14% Fox does project a Hillary win. Well, that's fun. Apparently they do expect a large margin because I can't believe the exit polling is extensive. I certainly hope for a wipeout. We'll see. Maybe an hour yet before anything from Montana.
--------------
This is interesting, from pollster.com:
About seven in 10 in both states called Obama honest and trustworthy. Nearly as many said that about Clinton in South Dakota but barely half inMontana called her honest and trustworthy.
That might explain the Montana orientation, not that they're more pleased with Obama, but more offended by Hillary. Good, Montanans aren't creeps.
----------------
8:58
The margin remains remarkably constant:
31% in: Hillary 55.85%, Obama 44.15%. --I must say I am indifferent to McCain's speech, or Obama's speech. I'm only interested in the poll numbers, and Hillary's speech. I'm waiting for the change in dynamism. --I would much prefer a 20 or 30 point win for Hillary.
----------------
9:10
From Talk Left, who live blogged the speech, excerpts:
Everyone had a chance to vote. Nearly 18 million of you cast your vote for our campaign. We carried the popular vote with more votes than any candidate in presidential history. We won together the swing states necessary to get to 270 electoral votes.
You wanted a leader who will stand up for our values, a country who will count every single vote...
I am committed to working to take back the White House in November. None of you are invisible to me.... I want the 18 million who voted for me to be respected and no longer treated as invisible.
Where do we go from here? This has been a long campaign and I will be making no decisions tonight.... I want to hear from you. Go to HillaryClinton.com and tell me.
I will be meeting with party leaders and supporters and determining the best way to proceed.
These are blogging paraphrases, but clearly no concession.
---------------
Geraghty says: "One of the most defiant speeches I've ever heard."
-------------
I note the networks called Montana for Obama immediately at the close of the polls. I wonder if the margins are really that strong, or if it's just part of the presumption?
---------------
Montana numbers have been very slow to come in. I wonder if there's any possibility that it could be because the real numbers aren't turning out to match the projections?
---------------
I must say I'm not terribly pleased with this "historic night". Nominating a black guy who's at the opposite end from what I admire in character and belief hardly seems a pleasing historical event. And now --unfortunately and probably-- it's Republicans who are going to have to face all the charges of racism. It's going to be an unhappy campaign.
Hillary can still help. It is possible, all her own personality deficits aside, that she could see a Barack presidency as a disaster for America, much in the way I do. It's possible she might stay in not simply from personal ambition but from love of country.
Anyway, stay in. It's one of my settled principles that you always make the other guy sweat, no matter how weak your hand. So, keep control of the delegates, keep a low profile, and wait. That seems the best course, and only course (presuming she does hope to keep Barack out of the presidency). This celebration of self just for voting for a black man may wear off. Right now probably 75% of America is celebrating probably about the way I am. Maybe that 75% in time will have some force. Hard though to say anything negative about a black guy who's liberal. Not proper. Has to be a black guy who's conservative, then he can be criticized just as much as if he were a Christian.
-------------------
Nice comment from Geraghty:
It sounds like Obama kept all of the praise for Hillary in the speech,even though she threw down the gauntlet in hers. She basically said that his verbal commitments from the superdelegates, along with two bucks, will get him a cup of coffee at Starbucks. She bragged that she had more votes,reminded everyone that she carried the swing states, jabbed at the Michigan and Florida decision, and invited her supporters to give her an excuse to remain in the race...
I always enjoy it when a man agrees with me.
----------------
11:10
Montana results starting to come in. 26%. Looks like it's 60/40 Obama. Oh well.
posted by mouse at 5:05 PM
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