The Hillary Matter
It's late. Just so I'll have something of a predictive post I'm going to post an email I just wrote.
Dear K,
I don't know if you called a second time or not. I was in the basement after 12:00.
Read a lot on the Hillary matter, though not nearly all the articles that were available. The overwhelming opinion seems to be that she will drop out within days after Tuesday. I have no idea, not on the basis of having read anything that seems like solid information. I do know my own opinion: If she drops out she's got rocks for brains.
I've gone through my arguments before: They're tied 50/50, since March 4th she's been doing very well, and Barack is going down hill. By the Democrats own rules the race isn't over until the superdelegates vote in August. What they say as to who they endorse means absolutely nothing in any formal sense. She could simply announce Tuesday: We're tied 50/50, see you in Denver; and I don't see how anybody could fairly object, especially if she ceases to publicly spar with Obama, which actually is nearly automatic anyway since there aren't any more contests after Tuesday. My own opinion is that at some point Barack is going to sink like a stone. If that happens before the convention and they still make him the nominee, she's certainly in a position to later call them utter fools.
And there is evidence that that change in dynamism that I've been expecting is happening. Take a look at this from this weekend:
ARG 05/31 - 06/01 600 LV Obama, 34 Clinton, 60 Clinton +26.0
Compared to this one of two months ago:
Daily Herald 03/24 - 04/03 267 RV Obama, 46 Clinton, 34 Obama +12.0
Of course, this is comparing apples to oranges, but there's no option because there are no other polls; no one is polling this late, unimportant state; and both polls are suspect, the ARG poll because it's a weekend poll, the Daily Herald poll because of its small sample, and of registered rather than likely voters. Still, the swing is huge, and I don't think it's because Clinton has suddenly become remarkable, I think it's because Obama has finally become ordinary, and with a lot of baggage people are just learning about.
Obama was supposed to win these two states, Montana and South Dakota, easily. As the near certain nominee he should win them by 80 to 90 percent (even though they're not a natural demograpic or region for him). If he loses one at this late stage it means a lot of Democrats are very unhappy.
See you, --M
So I am going to predict Hillary wins both states, South Dakota by a lot, Montana by a squeaker. I really have no basis for that prediction other than that I continue to assume that at some point antagonism toward Obama is going to set in. "Buyers remorse", perhaps; and I do think the race will become racial.
Dear K,
I don't know if you called a second time or not. I was in the basement after 12:00.
Read a lot on the Hillary matter, though not nearly all the articles that were available. The overwhelming opinion seems to be that she will drop out within days after Tuesday. I have no idea, not on the basis of having read anything that seems like solid information. I do know my own opinion: If she drops out she's got rocks for brains.
I've gone through my arguments before: They're tied 50/50, since March 4th she's been doing very well, and Barack is going down hill. By the Democrats own rules the race isn't over until the superdelegates vote in August. What they say as to who they endorse means absolutely nothing in any formal sense. She could simply announce Tuesday: We're tied 50/50, see you in Denver; and I don't see how anybody could fairly object, especially if she ceases to publicly spar with Obama, which actually is nearly automatic anyway since there aren't any more contests after Tuesday. My own opinion is that at some point Barack is going to sink like a stone. If that happens before the convention and they still make him the nominee, she's certainly in a position to later call them utter fools.
And there is evidence that that change in dynamism that I've been expecting is happening. Take a look at this from this weekend:
ARG 05/31 - 06/01 600 LV Obama, 34 Clinton, 60 Clinton +26.0
Compared to this one of two months ago:
Daily Herald 03/24 - 04/03 267 RV Obama, 46 Clinton, 34 Obama +12.0
Of course, this is comparing apples to oranges, but there's no option because there are no other polls; no one is polling this late, unimportant state; and both polls are suspect, the ARG poll because it's a weekend poll, the Daily Herald poll because of its small sample, and of registered rather than likely voters. Still, the swing is huge, and I don't think it's because Clinton has suddenly become remarkable, I think it's because Obama has finally become ordinary, and with a lot of baggage people are just learning about.
Obama was supposed to win these two states, Montana and South Dakota, easily. As the near certain nominee he should win them by 80 to 90 percent (even though they're not a natural demograpic or region for him). If he loses one at this late stage it means a lot of Democrats are very unhappy.
See you, --M
So I am going to predict Hillary wins both states, South Dakota by a lot, Montana by a squeaker. I really have no basis for that prediction other than that I continue to assume that at some point antagonism toward Obama is going to set in. "Buyers remorse", perhaps; and I do think the race will become racial.
posted by mouse at 1:17 AM
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