Hysteria

The Iraq war is a quagmire, and of course, the surge hasn't worked...? Funny how that "reality" is becoming a little weak now, though of course it's true because the MSM believes it's true. I do believe that the MSM does believe that whatever they choose to believe is true, is true. They're insane. I suspect the same is happening in their attitude toward Hillary, their conviction that she's about to drop out and that the Twit has won. My personal conviction is that the Twit is twiddling down and nearing implosion. A rational recognition of what's happening should encourage Hillary to just chuckle, and as I've said, just say: See you in Denver, we'll have a discussion.

There are many arguments that the race isn't over:

Today's Primaries and the Popular Vote [Byron York]

There's been an assumption that Barack Obama would finish out the primary season with wins today in South Dakota and Montana. In Montana, it looks like Obama is indeed ahead, but there could be a Clinton upset in South Dakota.... As for the popular vote, according to Real Clear Politics, the most generous (to Obama) reading has Obama ahead by four-tenths of one percent. In other readings, Clinton is ahead by as little as one-tenth of one percent or as much as eight-tenths of one percent. Whatever happens today, look for Clinton to continue to claim, with some reason, that she won the popular vote.

AP says he's clinched:

Obama Clinches [Jonah Goldberg]....

WASHINGTON (AP) - Barack Obama effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday, based on an Associated Press tally of convention delegates, becoming the first black candidate ever to lead his party into a fall campaign for the White House.

The AP tally was based on public commitments from delegates as well as more than a dozen private commitments....

The 46-year-old first term senator will face Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the fall campaign to become the 44th president.

You think so? I note that this tally requires "more than a dozen private commitments." My own opinion is that even the public commitments don't mean squat if Hillary chooses to ignore them.

It certainly would be interesting if Hillary were lucky enough to win both contests today, or perhaps just a blowout in South Dakota. That would embarrass the twit when he tries to claim at the Excel Center tonight: By my private count I know I've won; in my heart I know I've won. He's been trying to claim for some time a victory he can't quite get. I think it makes him look foolish (Exhibits him as he is, and desperate). There is evidence Hillary might do well:

Pew: Steep Drop in Obama Support Among White Women, Independents. Interesting numbers from the Pew Research Center that I haven't seen discussed elsewhere...
Recent declines in Obama's image have been pronounced among whites -- especially white women. Currently, just 43% of white women express a positive opinion of Obama, down from 56% in late February.

Favorable opinions of Obama among independent voters, who have provided him strong support in several of his primary election victories, also have declined over the course of the campaign. Obama's favorable ratings among this pivotal group have fallen from 62% in late February to just 49% in the current poll...

It doesn't seem unreasonable to note that South Dakota has a lot of white women, and possibly three who are black. I also believe South Dakota is open, so independents might figure as well.

I also note that this coronation of Obama by the MSM probably isn't simply bandwagon strategy, I think they probably believe reality is what they say it is. It sure would be nicely bracing if Hillary simply ignored them. What happens to "reality" when somebody important just doesn't see what you see?

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Ah, I discover a man of my own thinking, Thomas Lifson:

The next stage of Hillary Clinton's battle with Barack Obama is coming into focus. With the primary season closing today, her efforts turn to the super delegates, who don't have to decide (in the only meaningful way) to support either Clinton or Obama until late August. There is yet time for them to be convinced that nominating Obama would be a disaster for the party...

He notes some of the matters that might lead to what I call "implosion", and concludes:

...Hillary will stick it through to the convention in Denver.

I believe so. It makes sense. She just has to be contemptuous of the consensus. --I have by the way, so far found no coverage of the voting.