Thursday, July 10, 2008

Money Update

Dear K,

I don't know how well your news sources follow this, but this is what I know:

--McCain raised slightly more money in June than in May, and in May he raised slightly more than Obama. (Obama hasn't reported his totals yet for June and doesn't have to until the 20th.)

--The RNC is raising many more times money than the DNC. Almost all of this money goes to support McCain.

--Taking these two sources together McCain has about three times as much in the bank as Obama, and expects to have 212 million ready to spend after the convention (84.1 public financing; that's the only money McCain will directly control).

--A lot of the nutroots --the small donors that supposedly explain the Obama fund raising phenomena-- are saying: Not another dime from me! That's because they don't like his move to the center.

--Hillary's big donors are not forking out. They intend to --Democrats uber allas-- but haven't yet, just because in private meetings with Obama they haven't liked his condescending manner. ("Underwhelming", quotes Robert Novak.)

--And Democrat dissatisfaction with Obama is rising! However he might be doing with independents, more Democrats dislike him now than during the primaries (there are polls showing this, as well as increased acrimony in the comments sections of liberal blogs). Since he doesn't technically yet have the nomination sewn up, that's not really the direction he wants to go; and Hillary is doing nothing to help him. She in fact made a point of showcasing his flip-flop on FISA (which for some reason does actually matter to the far left). She voted against it --feisty girl!-- while he placidly went along with it.

--Obama's numbers when they come out will be interesting. His contributions have been falling 20% a month since January. What he gets from small donors will be down for sure (there's no real reason to give just now, plus so many are now angry); and who the big donors are will be important. If a lot of them aren't Hillary supporters he'll be in bad shape, even if he actually out-raises McCain.

--The joke on the web is that he's going to have to flip-flop-flip; he'll have to decide public financing is a good idea after-all. Nobody actually knows how he's doing.

--A lot of Hillary supporters still haven't given up. There's a group called PUMA (Party Unity My Ass). As a Republican I have to say they're my kind of people.


See you, --M

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