Witch In the Weeds

In the interest of getting off a post, but somewhat pressed for time, I'm going to again make use of an email.


Dear K,

Don't know when you called. I fell solidly asleep unexpectedly just moments after 11:00. I only sat to rest a bit and woke at daylight. Going back to bed soon for about an hour.

Don't let Hillary fool you. She's hiding in the weeds. She's maintaining control of her delegates, is "allowing" states who haven't completed their caucus delegate selections to continue to elect delegates to support her; has stated that the Democrat party is "two parties now", and that it's her obligation to unite them (and guess who controls half of that party); and just generally is going to disappear for awhile, avoid the flack that would be hitting her if she stayed visible, and will wait for Obama to screw up. Might or might not happen (I presume it will), but at any rate it's her only strategy. I believe it's a determined strategy.

--I would note that Clinton supporters are not swayed by party leaders or the main stream media; in a psychological sense they've become similar to conservatives; these are people for whom they have great contempt, and you don't pay attention to people you consider garbage. So I believe they'll stay loyal to Hillary, and just watch as others celebrate Obambi frenzy. Friday I expect Hillary will state her terms, which will be the direction she gives her troops. Then she'll just wait.

As I've said, I'm absolutely certain Obama is going to implode, I just don't know when.


See you, --M

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Note:

Huckabee did a similar thing. After Super Tuesday, when McCain won California, Romney conceded, Huck didn't. This was fine with me, I supported Huck and disliked Romney, but Huck faced a lot of flack, he was being a "spoiler". He handled it I think brilliantly: he went to the Cayman Islands to give a speech. He was mocked for taking a "vacation", but he totally avoided the venom that would have been directed toward him if just at that point he had continued to campaign. As it turned out, he never did catch fire beyond his base, but it was a good campaign, he's still very much respected by his base, and his base is reasonably well disposed toward McCain. Romney, who did the conventionally correct thing and dropped out and supported McCain, is still much disliked by McCain, and McCain is much disliked by Romney supporters. In this case, Huck's decision to stay in the race was the politically intelligent one, Romney's was unintelligent; nothing was resolved simply because he did concede, the process didn't run its course, resentments continued to simmer.

With Hillary the parallels certainly aren't exact, she is fundamentally tied with Obama, it's only media "exuberance" that has declared Obama the nominee, but where the parallel is exact is in going to the Cayman Islands. Hillary has to disappear for awhile, just to escape the venom. That's what it means to "suspend" her campaign. In fact the campaign goes on, it's just that the strategy is different. Just now she's going to let the other guys fight. Possibly she'll then be able to step in over the pieces.

The Queen Makes the King

Just a note on a matter others have noted earlier though which just sunk into my head this afternoon: Hillary's got all the cards. Barack, ahead of her by a sliver thin margin of pledged delegates, claims the nomination and now wants to "unify" the party. Says who? Half the party thinks he's a skunk.

Hillary probably thinks he's a skunk, but she probably has some influence over those who voted for her. If Barack is very nice, Hillary might be nice in return. She's got an 18 million voter army behind her, the troops Barack wants. What's he going to do, pretend she doesn't exist?

And on Barack's side, what's he got? Half of what he needs, plus all the media, and apparently, all the party leadership. Piffle. He's had them for six months, and 18 million have ignored them. All of the media, all of the leadership? Piffle.

It does seem he intends to campaign against McCain. Piffle as well, and pretend. The young fellow is assuming something he doesn't have, leadership of the party as it's nominee. To stride out to do battle is a bit silly, who's going to follow? The media, the leadership, and only half the army he needs.

I do think the media and the leadership and Barack all think that that's all he needs because that's their narrative, they're the party and if they all say it is so, it is so. But 18 million haven't followed that story for six months and they're probably not going to follow it now.

We'll see. I don't know how much contempt those 18 million have for the leadership, the media, and Barack. Contempt is useful, it's a kind of strength. No way in the slightest am I swayed by the Democrat leadership, the liberal media, or the lightweight Barry. Follow me, all you 18 Million! 'Course, I'm a Republican and am going to vote for McCain, but if the very-barry disaffected feel anything like me Barry's going to be out in the weeds without any herd behind him. We'll see.

I have gone from liking the guy to an emotion that is not at all the same. It seems to me he does that to people. What will happen with the 18 Million?

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Just posted this and then just read this:

The Clinton campaign announced late Wednesday that it wouldbe hosting an event in Washington, D.C, on Friday to “thank her supportersand express her support for Senator Obama and party unity.”

But also this:

According to a senior Democratic source on Capitol Hill,she acknowledged there were “two wings in the party right now,” and it was her obligation to “unite them."

Democratic sources also have said Clinton will suspend her campaign rather than close it down entirely. By suspending her campaign, Clinton would retain nominal control of her delegates and could continue to raise money to pay off campaign debts. She also would allow late-primary states to finish up the process of electing pro-Clinton delegates to theAugust convention.

To me this doesn't sound like quitting, it sounds like hiding in the weeds, but we'll see.

So, How Was Your Day?

Pretty much no coverage all day on the actual voting. From Fox I understand that Hillary is doing well in South Dakota and Obama is doing well in Montana. This is what every body expected, but no statements about the expected margins.

One correction: Apparently it's Montana that has the open primary, South Dakota is closed, so I got it backwards. By my "theorizing of a change in dynamics" though, an open primary should be the one that benefits Hillary. This is ignoring demographics, merely presuming performance will change somewhat within individual demographics, and presuming, in general, that a rural, fundamentally all white demographic is beneficial to Hillary. I have no idea why Montana would be more pro Obama than South Dakota? Maybe they're just more anti Hillary.

All the speculation today has been centered around the number of superdelegates Obama might pick up. To my mind that means nothing if Hillary chooses to decide it means nothing.

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8:09
Hillary's got South Dakota in the bag. Fox reports that with 9% of precincts reporting Hillary leads 56.08% to 43.92%. Landslide, wipeout, the nominee by acclamation! And I think McCain's got a shot too.

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8:19
At 14% Fox does project a Hillary win. Well, that's fun. Apparently they do expect a large margin because I can't believe the exit polling is extensive. I certainly hope for a wipeout. We'll see. Maybe an hour yet before anything from Montana.

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This is interesting, from pollster.com:

About seven in 10 in both states called Obama honest and trustworthy. Nearly as many said that about Clinton in South Dakota but barely half inMontana called her honest and trustworthy.

That might explain the Montana orientation, not that they're more pleased with Obama, but more offended by Hillary. Good, Montanans aren't creeps.

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8:58
The margin remains remarkably constant:
31% in: Hillary 55.85%, Obama 44.15%. --I must say I am indifferent to McCain's speech, or Obama's speech. I'm only interested in the poll numbers, and Hillary's speech. I'm waiting for the change in dynamism. --I would much prefer a 20 or 30 point win for Hillary.

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9:10
From Talk Left, who live blogged the speech, excerpts:

Everyone had a chance to vote. Nearly 18 million of you cast your vote for our campaign. We carried the popular vote with more votes than any candidate in presidential history. We won together the swing states necessary to get to 270 electoral votes.

You wanted a leader who will stand up for our values, a country who will count every single vote...

I am committed to working to take back the White House in November. None of you are invisible to me.... I want the 18 million who voted for me to be respected and no longer treated as invisible.

Where do we go from here? This has been a long campaign and I will be making no decisions tonight.... I want to hear from you. Go to HillaryClinton.com and tell me.

I will be meeting with party leaders and supporters and determining the best way to proceed.

These are blogging paraphrases, but clearly no concession.

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Geraghty says: "One of the most defiant speeches I've ever heard."

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I note the networks called Montana for Obama immediately at the close of the polls. I wonder if the margins are really that strong, or if it's just part of the presumption?

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Montana numbers have been very slow to come in. I wonder if there's any possibility that it could be because the real numbers aren't turning out to match the projections?

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I must say I'm not terribly pleased with this "historic night". Nominating a black guy who's at the opposite end from what I admire in character and belief hardly seems a pleasing historical event. And now --unfortunately and probably-- it's Republicans who are going to have to face all the charges of racism. It's going to be an unhappy campaign.

Hillary can still help. It is possible, all her own personality deficits aside, that she could see a Barack presidency as a disaster for America, much in the way I do. It's possible she might stay in not simply from personal ambition but from love of country.

Anyway, stay in. It's one of my settled principles that you always make the other guy sweat, no matter how weak your hand. So, keep control of the delegates, keep a low profile, and wait. That seems the best course, and only course (presuming she does hope to keep Barack out of the presidency). This celebration of self just for voting for a black man may wear off. Right now probably 75% of America is celebrating probably about the way I am. Maybe that 75% in time will have some force. Hard though to say anything negative about a black guy who's liberal. Not proper. Has to be a black guy who's conservative, then he can be criticized just as much as if he were a Christian.

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Nice comment from Geraghty:

It sounds like Obama kept all of the praise for Hillary in the speech,even though she threw down the gauntlet in hers. She basically said that his verbal commitments from the superdelegates, along with two bucks, will get him a cup of coffee at Starbucks. She bragged that she had more votes,reminded everyone that she carried the swing states, jabbed at the Michigan and Florida decision, and invited her supporters to give her an excuse to remain in the race...

I always enjoy it when a man agrees with me.

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11:10
Montana results starting to come in. 26%. Looks like it's 60/40 Obama. Oh well.

Hysteria

The Iraq war is a quagmire, and of course, the surge hasn't worked...? Funny how that "reality" is becoming a little weak now, though of course it's true because the MSM believes it's true. I do believe that the MSM does believe that whatever they choose to believe is true, is true. They're insane. I suspect the same is happening in their attitude toward Hillary, their conviction that she's about to drop out and that the Twit has won. My personal conviction is that the Twit is twiddling down and nearing implosion. A rational recognition of what's happening should encourage Hillary to just chuckle, and as I've said, just say: See you in Denver, we'll have a discussion.

There are many arguments that the race isn't over:

Today's Primaries and the Popular Vote [Byron York]

There's been an assumption that Barack Obama would finish out the primary season with wins today in South Dakota and Montana. In Montana, it looks like Obama is indeed ahead, but there could be a Clinton upset in South Dakota.... As for the popular vote, according to Real Clear Politics, the most generous (to Obama) reading has Obama ahead by four-tenths of one percent. In other readings, Clinton is ahead by as little as one-tenth of one percent or as much as eight-tenths of one percent. Whatever happens today, look for Clinton to continue to claim, with some reason, that she won the popular vote.

AP says he's clinched:

Obama Clinches [Jonah Goldberg]....

WASHINGTON (AP) - Barack Obama effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday, based on an Associated Press tally of convention delegates, becoming the first black candidate ever to lead his party into a fall campaign for the White House.

The AP tally was based on public commitments from delegates as well as more than a dozen private commitments....

The 46-year-old first term senator will face Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the fall campaign to become the 44th president.

You think so? I note that this tally requires "more than a dozen private commitments." My own opinion is that even the public commitments don't mean squat if Hillary chooses to ignore them.

It certainly would be interesting if Hillary were lucky enough to win both contests today, or perhaps just a blowout in South Dakota. That would embarrass the twit when he tries to claim at the Excel Center tonight: By my private count I know I've won; in my heart I know I've won. He's been trying to claim for some time a victory he can't quite get. I think it makes him look foolish (Exhibits him as he is, and desperate). There is evidence Hillary might do well:

Pew: Steep Drop in Obama Support Among White Women, Independents. Interesting numbers from the Pew Research Center that I haven't seen discussed elsewhere...
Recent declines in Obama's image have been pronounced among whites -- especially white women. Currently, just 43% of white women express a positive opinion of Obama, down from 56% in late February.

Favorable opinions of Obama among independent voters, who have provided him strong support in several of his primary election victories, also have declined over the course of the campaign. Obama's favorable ratings among this pivotal group have fallen from 62% in late February to just 49% in the current poll...

It doesn't seem unreasonable to note that South Dakota has a lot of white women, and possibly three who are black. I also believe South Dakota is open, so independents might figure as well.

I also note that this coronation of Obama by the MSM probably isn't simply bandwagon strategy, I think they probably believe reality is what they say it is. It sure would be nicely bracing if Hillary simply ignored them. What happens to "reality" when somebody important just doesn't see what you see?

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Ah, I discover a man of my own thinking, Thomas Lifson:

The next stage of Hillary Clinton's battle with Barack Obama is coming into focus. With the primary season closing today, her efforts turn to the super delegates, who don't have to decide (in the only meaningful way) to support either Clinton or Obama until late August. There is yet time for them to be convinced that nominating Obama would be a disaster for the party...

He notes some of the matters that might lead to what I call "implosion", and concludes:

...Hillary will stick it through to the convention in Denver.

I believe so. It makes sense. She just has to be contemptuous of the consensus. --I have by the way, so far found no coverage of the voting.

The Hillary Matter

It's late. Just so I'll have something of a predictive post I'm going to post an email I just wrote.

Dear K,

I don't know if you called a second time or not. I was in the basement after 12:00.

Read a lot on the Hillary matter, though not nearly all the articles that were available. The overwhelming opinion seems to be that she will drop out within days after Tuesday. I have no idea, not on the basis of having read anything that seems like solid information. I do know my own opinion: If she drops out she's got rocks for brains.

I've gone through my arguments before: They're tied 50/50, since March 4th she's been doing very well, and Barack is going down hill. By the Democrats own rules the race isn't over until the superdelegates vote in August. What they say as to who they endorse means absolutely nothing in any formal sense. She could simply announce Tuesday: We're tied 50/50, see you in Denver; and I don't see how anybody could fairly object, especially if she ceases to publicly spar with Obama, which actually is nearly automatic anyway since there aren't any more contests after Tuesday. My own opinion is that at some point Barack is going to sink like a stone. If that happens before the convention and they still make him the nominee, she's certainly in a position to later call them utter fools.

And there is evidence that that change in dynamism that I've been expecting is happening. Take a look at this from this weekend:

ARG 05/31 - 06/01 600 LV Obama, 34 Clinton, 60 Clinton +26.0

Compared to this one of two months ago:

Daily Herald 03/24 - 04/03 267 RV Obama, 46 Clinton, 34 Obama +12.0

Of course, this is comparing apples to oranges, but there's no option because there are no other polls; no one is polling this late, unimportant state; and both polls are suspect, the ARG poll because it's a weekend poll, the Daily Herald poll because of its small sample, and of registered rather than likely voters. Still, the swing is huge, and I don't think it's because Clinton has suddenly become remarkable, I think it's because Obama has finally become ordinary, and with a lot of baggage people are just learning about.

Obama was supposed to win these two states, Montana and South Dakota, easily. As the near certain nominee he should win them by 80 to 90 percent (even though they're not a natural demograpic or region for him). If he loses one at this late stage it means a lot of Democrats are very unhappy.


See you, --M

So I am going to predict Hillary wins both states, South Dakota by a lot, Montana by a squeaker. I really have no basis for that prediction other than that I continue to assume that at some point antagonism toward Obama is going to set in. "Buyers remorse", perhaps; and I do think the race will become racial.