Covering My Bases
The really big thing yesterday was Kennedy endorsing Obama. This means he sees Hill going down and wants to kick her in the head. This is a most wholesome orientation towards Hill and it's a signal to others of like mind to start taking their licks as well, or at least to start licking their chops. It's a progressive thing. Progressives have long protested Hill, that's why so many first supported Obama. Then they came to like Obama: "Change", there was glee in his victory last Saturday, and glee has now become a mass-movement-Hillary-stomp.
For this reason, in the "meaningless" Florida primary, there will be an anti-Hillary flourish of votes, and Obama will do quite a bit better than expected. (And this is Backlash-Billy as well).
Republicans? Romney popped up in the polls. That can have absolutely nothing to do with what he's done. He won an uncontested Nevada primary and came in forth in South Carolina. It has to be because of two things: Fred dropped out, and Fred-heads went Romney; and it's just become time to pick a winner, that means between two, and that's McCain or Mitt.
(The reason it's now time to pick a winner is because of the scientifically established Law-of-Zeitgeist; the Democrats did it Saturday, the Republicans have to do it today.)
Rudy is done. It was either him or McCain and McCain won, simply because he fought more. 4% for Rudy, the rest to McCain.
Huckabee will maintain double digits. That's because many of his supporters are message voters. The rest will go McCain. Boost, McCain.
And there are the undecided. Undecided equals uninformed equals moderate. Moderates like McCain. Boost, McCain. (The only problem with this statement is that "late moderates" just go with the flow. I don't really know what the flow is in Florida, but I would guess the emotion is McCain).
The Crist endorsement will help. His apparatus, though not up and running, still will help.
And there's talk radio. They've been hammering and hammering and hammering. McCain for years, Huck for months. But I have this thought: isn't there such a thing as a saturation point? How long can exactly the same yammering have any effect? It's possible they no longer talk to anybody but themselves, sort of the Ron Paulites of the airwaves.
So by a different line of reasoning I come to a different conclusion from yesterday. Rudy and Huck yet as predicted, but Romney, instead of a win by a squeaker, a loss by a large margin. That's because his mo was just Fred. There are no more votes out there to go to him. It's Romney who's the dinosaur, after all, he's done nothing more than memorize a thirty year old script. It's McCain who's the shakeup artist. Proof is that he's got talk radio all shook up. There are only so many more voters out there for the taking, and those are the voters dissatisfied and those voters go McCain.
For this reason, in the "meaningless" Florida primary, there will be an anti-Hillary flourish of votes, and Obama will do quite a bit better than expected. (And this is Backlash-Billy as well).
Republicans? Romney popped up in the polls. That can have absolutely nothing to do with what he's done. He won an uncontested Nevada primary and came in forth in South Carolina. It has to be because of two things: Fred dropped out, and Fred-heads went Romney; and it's just become time to pick a winner, that means between two, and that's McCain or Mitt.
(The reason it's now time to pick a winner is because of the scientifically established Law-of-Zeitgeist; the Democrats did it Saturday, the Republicans have to do it today.)
Rudy is done. It was either him or McCain and McCain won, simply because he fought more. 4% for Rudy, the rest to McCain.
Huckabee will maintain double digits. That's because many of his supporters are message voters. The rest will go McCain. Boost, McCain.
And there are the undecided. Undecided equals uninformed equals moderate. Moderates like McCain. Boost, McCain. (The only problem with this statement is that "late moderates" just go with the flow. I don't really know what the flow is in Florida, but I would guess the emotion is McCain).
The Crist endorsement will help. His apparatus, though not up and running, still will help.
And there's talk radio. They've been hammering and hammering and hammering. McCain for years, Huck for months. But I have this thought: isn't there such a thing as a saturation point? How long can exactly the same yammering have any effect? It's possible they no longer talk to anybody but themselves, sort of the Ron Paulites of the airwaves.
So by a different line of reasoning I come to a different conclusion from yesterday. Rudy and Huck yet as predicted, but Romney, instead of a win by a squeaker, a loss by a large margin. That's because his mo was just Fred. There are no more votes out there to go to him. It's Romney who's the dinosaur, after all, he's done nothing more than memorize a thirty year old script. It's McCain who's the shakeup artist. Proof is that he's got talk radio all shook up. There are only so many more voters out there for the taking, and those are the voters dissatisfied and those voters go McCain.
posted by mouse at 7:39 AM
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