Last Night's No Fight
So, on the debate. I spent several hours last night reading comment wherever I could find it and it seemed the consensus that nothing much happened. Big chance, no fight. Romney won, Giuliani won, McCain won, and even (in various condescending asides) Huck won (in points, of course, of no substantive significance). Each man won solidly, depending on who the blogger favored in the first place.
It does seem to indicate that no candidate knew how to attack. There are too many contending forces in play, gain from one competitor, lose to another. Not knowing how to court an advantage, each candidate decided to go with what strengths they now have; hunkered down, raised no waves, and merely tried to portray themselves as positively as they could. Dull debate, but not damaging.
I still argue that Giuliani gains the most simply by being on stage. That puts him competitively again in the public eye in a state he has declared is for him make-or-break; that means he's declared himself a factor, that means people paid attention, and as I understand he was forceful and agreeable. All a plus. And I think Huckabee loses nothing, because he only wants a strong nitch showing anyway. McCain and Romney had the most to lose, or gain, but each, not knowing what might be effective, simply played it straight. Whatever happens will happen by the dynamisms already in play. They'll just do more of the same in the remaining days, and see how things tip.
...I forgot about Ron Paul. Oh well, he has his core. If any of his supporters leave him, the idea being they want to cast a more meaningful vote, they'll probably go to Giuliani, as being the least moralistic of the remaining four.
So, I have no idea how things will go. The polls are the only indication, but I have no idea how they'll move. I see McCain gaining more from Fred than anybody else, and he'll also gain from Huck, should some of Huck's supporters decide to go with a winner; and I think the undecided will tend toward McCain disproportionately as well, as being the front runner nationally. So I see a McCain win more probable than any other.
One dynamism I want to note: I think the primary reason Romney has support is because he has support from the elite. If he wasn't constantly touted as the "most conservative" I just can't see that many people would give him a second look. But I think the exhortations of the punditry may be wearing thin. How long can you attempt to demonize somebody like Huck, such a clearly friendly guy, without coming to seem somewhat strange yourself? Same for McCain, to a lesser degree same for Giuliani. All these guys are clearly solid, agreeable (in their own individual ways) and authentic. So why all the adulation for Romney, who so clearly is unpleasant? The clique elite pushes the geek freak. At some point clique and freak are going to seem the same.
It does seem to indicate that no candidate knew how to attack. There are too many contending forces in play, gain from one competitor, lose to another. Not knowing how to court an advantage, each candidate decided to go with what strengths they now have; hunkered down, raised no waves, and merely tried to portray themselves as positively as they could. Dull debate, but not damaging.
I still argue that Giuliani gains the most simply by being on stage. That puts him competitively again in the public eye in a state he has declared is for him make-or-break; that means he's declared himself a factor, that means people paid attention, and as I understand he was forceful and agreeable. All a plus. And I think Huckabee loses nothing, because he only wants a strong nitch showing anyway. McCain and Romney had the most to lose, or gain, but each, not knowing what might be effective, simply played it straight. Whatever happens will happen by the dynamisms already in play. They'll just do more of the same in the remaining days, and see how things tip.
...I forgot about Ron Paul. Oh well, he has his core. If any of his supporters leave him, the idea being they want to cast a more meaningful vote, they'll probably go to Giuliani, as being the least moralistic of the remaining four.
So, I have no idea how things will go. The polls are the only indication, but I have no idea how they'll move. I see McCain gaining more from Fred than anybody else, and he'll also gain from Huck, should some of Huck's supporters decide to go with a winner; and I think the undecided will tend toward McCain disproportionately as well, as being the front runner nationally. So I see a McCain win more probable than any other.
One dynamism I want to note: I think the primary reason Romney has support is because he has support from the elite. If he wasn't constantly touted as the "most conservative" I just can't see that many people would give him a second look. But I think the exhortations of the punditry may be wearing thin. How long can you attempt to demonize somebody like Huck, such a clearly friendly guy, without coming to seem somewhat strange yourself? Same for McCain, to a lesser degree same for Giuliani. All these guys are clearly solid, agreeable (in their own individual ways) and authentic. So why all the adulation for Romney, who so clearly is unpleasant? The clique elite pushes the geek freak. At some point clique and freak are going to seem the same.
posted by mouse at 6:54 PM
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