SC & Nee-VADD-duh
(Initially posted Saturday morning, accidentally deleted, now reposted)
(No, have it figured out now. Not deleted, but posted in Three Day Post, the wrong blog)
Late Late Late. Was going to do this last night but fell asleep. Gotta get my predictions down:
--SC: Huckabee, McCain, Fred, Romney.
--Nee-VADD-duh: Obama, Hillary; and, oh, Romney.
I have managed to note over my short history of being a prognosticator that my predictions tend to accord exactly with my prejudices, and only occasionally do my prejudices accord exactly with an entire state. But that's actually my whole predictive methodology right now, to argue that others (mostly Republicans) are like me, and that the way I tend will be the way they tend. I'm not speaking absolute numbers, only tendencies, so that gives me some wiggle room. If the results aren't what I predict I can say: It's just because there wasn't enough time, but the movement is as I said it was.
But this is only an experiment anyway. I do have a sense that I'm normal, that I'm not caught up in any particular spectrum or special group prejudice, so that how I respond emotionally is about how most rank-and-file will respond. We'll see, but I expect my intuitions on the matter will be more accurate than most peoples more technical analysis. Could be dead wrong but here goes:
SC: Romney will have nearly Giulianis numbers, possibly single digits, because:
--He abandoned the state to go campaign in Nevada. That means he doesn't consider South Carolinians important and they will return the sentiment, they will abandon him. This is made easy because they're not abandoning a front runner anyway, and there's a completely "standard" conservative to switch to as well --Fred. And he's a southerner, and likable, and distinguished. So Fred will have a surge, and it will be almost entirely from Romney.
--But it won't be a great surge because he's not actually viable. Only dead head Fred Fred heads think Fred's not dead. Fortunately America is not burdened by a great many such types so the number who will in that way waste their vote is not great.
So the race is to Huckabee or McCain.
Huckabees only weakness in the South is that he knows nothing about foreign policy. With South Carolina having a great many military, and with McCain as an alternative, that will hurt him. But how much? I think a lot of McCain's stated support is more a statement of respect than a firm intention to give him a vote. Reservations would be mainly that he's an old guy, and that his "straight talk" tends to squewer(sp) only the Republican side and seems quite gentle towards the other. That somewhat diminishes him as Hero. And Huckabee, while not knowledgeable about military or foreign policy matters, is certainly not antimilitary, so while not a great choice for the military he's not anathema --and he is young and likable and southern. I think this slightly cuts McCain's margin and enables Huckabee to pull out a squeaker.
So:
--Huckabee, McCain (close); Fred (some distance back); Mitt, bottom.
Nee-VADD-duh:
--Mitt wins. Duh. He's the only one who's campaigned, he's the only one who will think his victory is important.
Democrats:
I still think the most powerful change Democrats want is a change away from Hillary. I see anti-Hillary sentiment as by far the most important aspect of this entire Democrat primary season. I see her surprise victory in New Hampshire as a fluke, possibly helped by those one time tears, but more probably made possible by Obama supporters overconfidence such that many gathered to celebrate without first going out to vote. That isn't going to happen again. This time, in Nevada, the fight is serious. This time anybody who supports Obama is going to be angry and out. They will vote. Whatever votes he gets will be the votes he's got.
Two interesting things: Edwards is now seen clearly as a third wheel and a wasted vote. His numbers should drop, I just don't know by how much. I don't see how anybody now can believe that a vote for him is sending a message to anybody... except in one respect. It might be a None of the Above vote, a refusal to vote for either a witch or a black. It could happen.
The second thing is the Latino vote. This will be the first primary where a minority demographic will have an influence on the outcome. I have no idea how they will vote. The culinary union's endorsement of Obama --apparently a conflicted vote itself-- seems to indicate the vote will be split. But the Clinton's apparently fear the balance will be against them, thus their attempt to ban the open caucuses in the casinos, which would have prevented many in the union from participating. They failed, so I expect the union will be even more negative than it would have been otherwise.
So: Obama by a squeaker. --To my mind it would be wholesome if Edwards' vote was about nothing.
And so we'll see. There should be meaningful numbers in nine or ten hours.
----------------
6:25
Hillary won Nevada, 51 -- 45; McCain leading Huck 33-- 27; Romney 16, Fred 15.
And I am despondent. I really wanted Hillary to lose, and Huck to win SC, and Romney to be embarrassed. It appears none of that really happened.
If the results hold I think Huck is done as a national candidate: if he can't win SC he can't win the South. Fred is dead. He's too often said he had to win SC to be credible if he stays in. Romney is perhaps hurt --finishing so far behind two other candidates, but he's still in for Florida and Super Tuesday and he does have a lot of money. --I note he has not gotten a great national bounce form his win in Michigan. He remains the only candidate who has not had his time at the top nationally. That does indicate that he can not excite the base. Possibly it also indicates voter preference is beginning to solidify.
The wild card yet is Huckabee's supporters, where will they go once it's clear Huck doesn't have a chance? (it is possible Huck will withdraw, possibly after Florida). And the other wild card is Giuliani. Will he actually do well in Florida? That's the greatest next uncertainty. If the SC results hold and McCain wins he's going to be awfully strong. He looks more like the eventual nominee now than anybody else.
But still there are at least three who are going to have a lot of delegates: Rudy, McCain, Romney, so there may not be a majority by the convention. --And it is possible Huck could stay in, though I'm uncertain what would be his reasoning...?
For the Democrats. It's interesting that Obama won blacks by an overwhelming majority, and Clinton, despite the Culinary Worker's Union endorsement of Obama, won Latinos overwhelmingly. That indicates a racial fissure, that Latinos won't vote for a black.
------------------
This from Geraghty:
Romney Spent How Much in South Carolina?Another campaign chuckles at the thought that Romney spent $4 million in South Carolina....
Besidesthe money, he did 52 events, spending 22 days in the state...
I think in South Carolina we're seeing a similar phenomenon that we saw in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan... either you're in the top two, or you'reway behind. In the closing days, voters jump on the bandwagons of the top two leading candidates...
01/19 09:10 PM
This would be an argument for Huck to stay in the race and see what happens in Florida.
Continuing this thought. Florida is still uncertain: Is Giuliani for real, or now an asterisk? Won't know until Florida votes. Huckabee can make this argument: In SC there was a huge military presence that went overwhelmingly for McCain; independents went for McCain, and there was a substantial snow storm (by SC standards) that affected areas strong for Huckabee but didn't at all affect the areas along the coast strong for McCain; plus (according to Bill Kristol) Romney's in effect dropping out in SC helped McCain in that it was McCain who picked up the support that Romney lost. That wasn't my opinion but it would suit Huck's argument: that with all these negative, none of which will pertain in Florida (only Republicans can vote, for example), he still nearly won and so might win there. And if Giuliani pulls from anyone it will be from McCain (and according to Kristol, Romney from McCain as well).
If all these things are true, it would be reasonable for Huck to try out Florida. Florida will be a good test for Romney too. It won't be a "special situation" state like Wyoming, Michigan, and Nevada; he'll have no special advantage and all the players will be spending money and time. It's still possible the top two vote getters could be Huck and McCain. McCain will clearly be at the top, and the other could be Giuliani, but still, the social conservatives have got to have someplace to go, and maybe the Reagan conservatives as well (for Romney). --Fred might throw his support to McCain but I suspect in Florida that would be about .5% of the vote.
I just don't know how to predict Florida, other than that McCain will be one of the top two. But it does seem that everybody but Thompson has a reason to stay in for at least this one more state.
Republican results, 93% reporting:
McCain 33, Huck 30, Thompson 16, Romney 15, Paul 4, Giuliani 2
(No, have it figured out now. Not deleted, but posted in Three Day Post, the wrong blog)
Late Late Late. Was going to do this last night but fell asleep. Gotta get my predictions down:
--SC: Huckabee, McCain, Fred, Romney.
--Nee-VADD-duh: Obama, Hillary; and, oh, Romney.
I have managed to note over my short history of being a prognosticator that my predictions tend to accord exactly with my prejudices, and only occasionally do my prejudices accord exactly with an entire state. But that's actually my whole predictive methodology right now, to argue that others (mostly Republicans) are like me, and that the way I tend will be the way they tend. I'm not speaking absolute numbers, only tendencies, so that gives me some wiggle room. If the results aren't what I predict I can say: It's just because there wasn't enough time, but the movement is as I said it was.
But this is only an experiment anyway. I do have a sense that I'm normal, that I'm not caught up in any particular spectrum or special group prejudice, so that how I respond emotionally is about how most rank-and-file will respond. We'll see, but I expect my intuitions on the matter will be more accurate than most peoples more technical analysis. Could be dead wrong but here goes:
SC: Romney will have nearly Giulianis numbers, possibly single digits, because:
--He abandoned the state to go campaign in Nevada. That means he doesn't consider South Carolinians important and they will return the sentiment, they will abandon him. This is made easy because they're not abandoning a front runner anyway, and there's a completely "standard" conservative to switch to as well --Fred. And he's a southerner, and likable, and distinguished. So Fred will have a surge, and it will be almost entirely from Romney.
--But it won't be a great surge because he's not actually viable. Only dead head Fred Fred heads think Fred's not dead. Fortunately America is not burdened by a great many such types so the number who will in that way waste their vote is not great.
So the race is to Huckabee or McCain.
Huckabees only weakness in the South is that he knows nothing about foreign policy. With South Carolina having a great many military, and with McCain as an alternative, that will hurt him. But how much? I think a lot of McCain's stated support is more a statement of respect than a firm intention to give him a vote. Reservations would be mainly that he's an old guy, and that his "straight talk" tends to squewer(sp) only the Republican side and seems quite gentle towards the other. That somewhat diminishes him as Hero. And Huckabee, while not knowledgeable about military or foreign policy matters, is certainly not antimilitary, so while not a great choice for the military he's not anathema --and he is young and likable and southern. I think this slightly cuts McCain's margin and enables Huckabee to pull out a squeaker.
So:
--Huckabee, McCain (close); Fred (some distance back); Mitt, bottom.
Nee-VADD-duh:
--Mitt wins. Duh. He's the only one who's campaigned, he's the only one who will think his victory is important.
Democrats:
I still think the most powerful change Democrats want is a change away from Hillary. I see anti-Hillary sentiment as by far the most important aspect of this entire Democrat primary season. I see her surprise victory in New Hampshire as a fluke, possibly helped by those one time tears, but more probably made possible by Obama supporters overconfidence such that many gathered to celebrate without first going out to vote. That isn't going to happen again. This time, in Nevada, the fight is serious. This time anybody who supports Obama is going to be angry and out. They will vote. Whatever votes he gets will be the votes he's got.
Two interesting things: Edwards is now seen clearly as a third wheel and a wasted vote. His numbers should drop, I just don't know by how much. I don't see how anybody now can believe that a vote for him is sending a message to anybody... except in one respect. It might be a None of the Above vote, a refusal to vote for either a witch or a black. It could happen.
The second thing is the Latino vote. This will be the first primary where a minority demographic will have an influence on the outcome. I have no idea how they will vote. The culinary union's endorsement of Obama --apparently a conflicted vote itself-- seems to indicate the vote will be split. But the Clinton's apparently fear the balance will be against them, thus their attempt to ban the open caucuses in the casinos, which would have prevented many in the union from participating. They failed, so I expect the union will be even more negative than it would have been otherwise.
So: Obama by a squeaker. --To my mind it would be wholesome if Edwards' vote was about nothing.
And so we'll see. There should be meaningful numbers in nine or ten hours.
----------------
6:25
Hillary won Nevada, 51 -- 45; McCain leading Huck 33-- 27; Romney 16, Fred 15.
And I am despondent. I really wanted Hillary to lose, and Huck to win SC, and Romney to be embarrassed. It appears none of that really happened.
If the results hold I think Huck is done as a national candidate: if he can't win SC he can't win the South. Fred is dead. He's too often said he had to win SC to be credible if he stays in. Romney is perhaps hurt --finishing so far behind two other candidates, but he's still in for Florida and Super Tuesday and he does have a lot of money. --I note he has not gotten a great national bounce form his win in Michigan. He remains the only candidate who has not had his time at the top nationally. That does indicate that he can not excite the base. Possibly it also indicates voter preference is beginning to solidify.
The wild card yet is Huckabee's supporters, where will they go once it's clear Huck doesn't have a chance? (it is possible Huck will withdraw, possibly after Florida). And the other wild card is Giuliani. Will he actually do well in Florida? That's the greatest next uncertainty. If the SC results hold and McCain wins he's going to be awfully strong. He looks more like the eventual nominee now than anybody else.
But still there are at least three who are going to have a lot of delegates: Rudy, McCain, Romney, so there may not be a majority by the convention. --And it is possible Huck could stay in, though I'm uncertain what would be his reasoning...?
For the Democrats. It's interesting that Obama won blacks by an overwhelming majority, and Clinton, despite the Culinary Worker's Union endorsement of Obama, won Latinos overwhelmingly. That indicates a racial fissure, that Latinos won't vote for a black.
------------------
This from Geraghty:
Romney Spent How Much in South Carolina?Another campaign chuckles at the thought that Romney spent $4 million in South Carolina....
Besidesthe money, he did 52 events, spending 22 days in the state...
I think in South Carolina we're seeing a similar phenomenon that we saw in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan... either you're in the top two, or you'reway behind. In the closing days, voters jump on the bandwagons of the top two leading candidates...
01/19 09:10 PM
This would be an argument for Huck to stay in the race and see what happens in Florida.
Continuing this thought. Florida is still uncertain: Is Giuliani for real, or now an asterisk? Won't know until Florida votes. Huckabee can make this argument: In SC there was a huge military presence that went overwhelmingly for McCain; independents went for McCain, and there was a substantial snow storm (by SC standards) that affected areas strong for Huckabee but didn't at all affect the areas along the coast strong for McCain; plus (according to Bill Kristol) Romney's in effect dropping out in SC helped McCain in that it was McCain who picked up the support that Romney lost. That wasn't my opinion but it would suit Huck's argument: that with all these negative, none of which will pertain in Florida (only Republicans can vote, for example), he still nearly won and so might win there. And if Giuliani pulls from anyone it will be from McCain (and according to Kristol, Romney from McCain as well).
If all these things are true, it would be reasonable for Huck to try out Florida. Florida will be a good test for Romney too. It won't be a "special situation" state like Wyoming, Michigan, and Nevada; he'll have no special advantage and all the players will be spending money and time. It's still possible the top two vote getters could be Huck and McCain. McCain will clearly be at the top, and the other could be Giuliani, but still, the social conservatives have got to have someplace to go, and maybe the Reagan conservatives as well (for Romney). --Fred might throw his support to McCain but I suspect in Florida that would be about .5% of the vote.
I just don't know how to predict Florida, other than that McCain will be one of the top two. But it does seem that everybody but Thompson has a reason to stay in for at least this one more state.
Republican results, 93% reporting:
McCain 33, Huck 30, Thompson 16, Romney 15, Paul 4, Giuliani 2
posted by mouse at 1:36 PM
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