Provocation Pandora Ongoing...
Been reading what there is to read. Two important things: Iran has stated that the British have confessed to being in Iranian waters, meaning that they intend that this incident will be a provocation; and there has been no stated response from Washington, meaning that they intend that their response will be effective.
It should be noted that the US military already will have 10,000 targets picked out in Iran. And note too, that Iran has a restive population. After thirty years under the Mullahs who wouldn't be restive? It seems to me, that with the right push, backed internationally, that whole government could just fall over. How about just taking out a refinery? Iran is dependent on imports for 47% of its gasoline. No gasoline, and the citizenry might think it's a good time for revolution. What would be most effective would be world clarity that this present government has no friends.
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5:10 PM
This is good:
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9:37 PM
I'm sticking with my idea that there's no rationality behind this hijacking at all. If the Iranians had had a plan, we would already be hearing their demands. So far, nothing, only media speculation. I see the Mullahs as wrapped in an Islamicist conviction bleak, black, and in exclusion of the entire outside world. Their view is North Korean, dark, tiny, narrow. They are not clever, they have no idea how the outer world functions or reacts. They have one conviction only, that the West is weak, loves life dearly, and will yield when that life is under threat. So they've made a threat, a readily available one, a hijacking of fifteen British souls. Their thinking went no deeper than that. They're waiting for Britain to surrender, they're waiting for Britain to beg... Silence. And silence from the US. This is not as it should be. This may make them nervous.
And I presume the lack of a British or US official statement is because Iran does have a reason to be nervous. This can not become a war of hostages, it has to be a straight out war, and the two just haven't yet come to an agreement as to what course to follow.
My suggestion would be to start with their navy. Take it out, every last rowboat, and do it tomorrow, and discuss it afterwards. This is merely my preference, as it seems pertinent and useful, but I don't know the military situation so if a better set of targets might be picked, fine. I am certain the attack should be swift and without public discussion. There is no need for a discussion in a matter like this against a state like Iran. Take them out, discuss it tomorrow. Discussion has a more sensible clarity once a battle has already been won.
And do what can be done for the sailors, but we can not be held hostage to hostages.
The battle does have to be won, or the discussions afterwards could get sticky. This almost argues for an Entebbe style raid, to go along with whatever.
It should be noted that the US military already will have 10,000 targets picked out in Iran. And note too, that Iran has a restive population. After thirty years under the Mullahs who wouldn't be restive? It seems to me, that with the right push, backed internationally, that whole government could just fall over. How about just taking out a refinery? Iran is dependent on imports for 47% of its gasoline. No gasoline, and the citizenry might think it's a good time for revolution. What would be most effective would be world clarity that this present government has no friends.
.....................
5:10 PM
This is good:
The U.N. Security Council unanimously voted Saturday to impose new sanctions against Iran for its refusal to stop enriching uranium _ a move intended to show Tehran that defiance will leave it increasingly isolated.At the moment that sanctions aren't strong doesn't matter so much as that they're unanimous. The sense of Iran isolated is what might have powerful domestic force. Now, military action. To coin a phrase, "Faster, Please!"
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9:37 PM
I'm sticking with my idea that there's no rationality behind this hijacking at all. If the Iranians had had a plan, we would already be hearing their demands. So far, nothing, only media speculation. I see the Mullahs as wrapped in an Islamicist conviction bleak, black, and in exclusion of the entire outside world. Their view is North Korean, dark, tiny, narrow. They are not clever, they have no idea how the outer world functions or reacts. They have one conviction only, that the West is weak, loves life dearly, and will yield when that life is under threat. So they've made a threat, a readily available one, a hijacking of fifteen British souls. Their thinking went no deeper than that. They're waiting for Britain to surrender, they're waiting for Britain to beg... Silence. And silence from the US. This is not as it should be. This may make them nervous.
And I presume the lack of a British or US official statement is because Iran does have a reason to be nervous. This can not become a war of hostages, it has to be a straight out war, and the two just haven't yet come to an agreement as to what course to follow.
My suggestion would be to start with their navy. Take it out, every last rowboat, and do it tomorrow, and discuss it afterwards. This is merely my preference, as it seems pertinent and useful, but I don't know the military situation so if a better set of targets might be picked, fine. I am certain the attack should be swift and without public discussion. There is no need for a discussion in a matter like this against a state like Iran. Take them out, discuss it tomorrow. Discussion has a more sensible clarity once a battle has already been won.
And do what can be done for the sailors, but we can not be held hostage to hostages.
The battle does have to be won, or the discussions afterwards could get sticky. This almost argues for an Entebbe style raid, to go along with whatever.
posted by mouse at 3:11 PM
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