What On Iran?

Big Hizbollah strike in Lebanon. Two speculations as to the timing: They want to interrupt the Paris 3 conference scheduled for Thursday, where it's expected the U.S., and possibly France, will pledge money and support to the Siniora government; or that Iran has simply issued orders that they want a flare-up to distract the U.S. from its apparent new focus on Iran.

I don't know. Nasrallah has been threatening this sort of thing for weeks.

Whatever, the Lebonese government probably isn't going to fold from pressure. If Nasrullah continues to push there will be civil war. That will be a mess, it will be very hard on Lebanon, it's not going to distract from our build-up toward Iran. The Iranian situation is either an administration intent, which will be done irrespective of public focus and support, or there is no such intent. I don't know. And I don't know how much public support can be developed for a strike on Iran anyway. Americans are exceptionally in an antiwar mood, and Europe is anti American. Utter fools. The Arab states on the other hand would be rather pleased if we put a drubbing on Tehran.

I just don't know what's going to happen. I would say that the "atmosphere" within America seems to be changed immensely since the election. It appears true that the only poll that really matters is the one election day. I do think though that we're still sort of 50/50. If there were a war strike 50% of Americans would be delighted.

War is logistics. If there is an administration intent to attack Iran it will take awhile yet to get everything in place. If we do hit them we'll be treated like Israel: private relief, public condemnation. Since there will be condemnation no matter what I hope we hit them hard. I would like to see their military taken out entirely, not just their nuclear capacity; everything, everywhere. I would like to see them so reduced that they would be afraid of invasion by Iraqis driving a a half dozen hand-me-down Humvees. That is the kind of thing America can do. it wouldn't hurt to remind the world what kind of power we can unleash.

Note: Ahmadinejad: "The United States is unable to inflict serious damage on Iran."

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The Speech:

Probably as policy the least remarkable of his speeches, very skillful though. I don't know that there was a line in the foreign policy part where the Democrats weren't forced to show support --I suppose because it was all expressed as support for the troops. I would have to actually read the text to accurately judge the skill.

I think there was only one reference to Iran, I think that referred to their enabling violence in Iraq.

There was one quite new thing, addressing the sectarian divide, Sunni/Shiia violence: "This isn't the fight anyone signed on for, but that's where we are now." (rough quote).

Full quote:

This is not the fight we entered in Iraq, but it is the fight we are in. Every one of us wishes that this war were over and won. Yet it would not be like us to leave our promises unkept, our friends abandoned, and our own security at risk. Ladies and gentlemen: On this day, at this hour, it is still within our power to shape the outcome of this battle. So let us find our resolve, and turn events toward victory.

Really quite relaxed, confident. I think because of the skill of its expression. He didn't give an inch, but the expression was such that the Democrats couldn't really oppose, publicly, any statement, in that they weren't directly challenged. The intent of the speech was to buy time. Give it and get out. Bush knows that words now won't buy support. If nobody talks about it tomorrow you've bought time.