Dis da Dude

Some notes I made last night, coming in after a long walk. May make a further note after the debate.

--No BDS anymore? It doesn't seem I've seen much. Perhaps partly because it's been redirected to Palin, but probably also because the campaign is now finally intense, and finally Bush just isn't the emotional focus.

--Part of the continuing tank in stocks might be because of the conviction that Obama is going to be the next President, and everyone realizes that not only is he a radical lefty, he's also out of his depth. --Very speculative speculation.

--Part might be because it's so clear the congress isn't serious. If they had been it would have been a one issue bill, no pork, and with a clearly stated plan. The way it is it's just Paulson handing out money to his friends. There's utterly nothing there to assure anybody he knows what he's doing. A less speculative speculation.

--McCain not making eye-contact with Obama in the last debate? A tactic.

Obama is an unknown, merely an image. He has to be defined. No one can more convincingly define Obama than himself. He has the veneer of the academic but in personality is fundamentally an inner city street thug. Part of that culture is one of immense self-esteem: Don't dare diss me, man! When McCain doesn't look at him, and constantly references: "He just doesn't understand," then Obama is being dissed. If McCain can get under his skin enough, he might get him to have an outburst. That would be a communication that he's not fit to lead, and it wouldn't be something anybody could spin, because it came from the Big O's lips.

I imagine this is conscious on McCain's part. He doesn't want to be aggressive, just dismissive. This is a super excellent idea. It would help if he could reference Sarah as superior. Oh, my oh my, how insulting that would be to a studly black dude. --Sarah could help if she could make some slighting statement just before... Problem, it would have to be covered. Maybe Bill could say something.

Note: Barack does already consider himself President. One is perhaps very set to be offended if one is already the president.

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Debate

Debate just over, hard to score it. I'm only interested in who changed votes, and I can't make a judgment on that.

--McCain is stiff, and so seems old, but he's not old in his speech. He was "imploring" the entire time. I put that in quotes because it was also an earnestness and an intensity. I rather like it, I'm not sure about others.

--Barack is young, moves young, speaks young. Nothing special about that, it's a quality of being young. Nothing special about his voice, there's a clear attempt to have an authoritative tone. That I find offensive because fake, but I don't know how others respond.

--McCain didn't dis da dude. In the last half-hour, foreign policy, he did get Barack to show some annoyance: "John seems to think I'm green behind the ears." Yes. And earlier Barack insisted on having more time to statements McCain had made. I've got nothing against that, it's a question of how it played. McCain, then asserting that he also should have more time, seemed more a man asserting a principle of fairness, than a man irritated and demanding. But minor stuff.

--Don't much care for either of them on much of their domestic policy, but McCain, I thought forcefully, insisted on the need for nuclear power. That's a biggy for me. And in foreign policy he just clearly communicates more authority. Barack, in energy policy, constantly falls back on conservation, and green energy. There's no doubt at all that he would not drill and would not develop nuclear.

--But this is policy. Barack is through and through a liberal. McCain is sort of half-and-half. For myself, just in terms of policy, there's no doubt whom I prefer. But what about the uncommitted voter? I just don't know how they respond. Was there any separation in skill of answers that I missed that might means something to the less informed voter? Obviously, if I missed it, I can't comment on it. Of course I found a few of McCain's responses crisp and insightful, and saw none similar from Bambi.

--Each camp will claim victory. Barack has the media, he'll win the ratings hands down. I do think that "in trying times" a young kid has to come across as very powerful to be thought preferable to an old hand. So in this respect, though Obama will be declared the winner, and conservatives will bemoan McCain's "last chance" to make a dent, I in fact think he did well, and helped himself among those yet wavering.

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Sent this in as a comment but have decided to include it in my blog, though it simply repeats what I earlier said:

McCain comes across as an old guy and stiff. He is an old guy and stiff, but his voice was earnest, his emotions imploring, and his mind competent. In foreign policy he communicates a natural command.

Obama comes across as a young guy. He is a young guy. There are a lot of them in the world. He definitely seems bright enough to be a grad student, but while he lowers his voice to sound authoritative, there's never a sense that he dominates.

I try to imagine the thinking of a swing voter. Who won the debate is the one who changed votes. Everyone just now recognizes we're in perilous times. That being the case, even ignoring how the debate might have been scored on points, who wants to go with a young guy who sounds just like every other young guy, rather than go with an old guy, who, while perhaps not coming across as brilliant, has at least been around for awhile?

It seems to me that for Barack to win he had to dominate. At best he managed a tie.

The reason I'm including it is the sudden sense I had while writing it that the change mantra is dead. We have change now and it's very unpleasant. Who wants more? Americans now want stability. Change in terms of specifics is still wanted, but as a mindless evocation of something exciting I think it's dead. I see that now as an advantage Obama has lost.

--Should note that most of the conservative commentary I've read is of the opinion that McCain did only moderately well and that a tie goes to the leader in the polls. Among low information voters I just don't see that. Nobody wants change anymore, they want to get back to the way things were. In that case I think a tie goes to the old guy. --I'll note that as exciting as conservatives find Sarah Palin, I'm pretty sure they're all pleased it's John McCain who's at the head of the ticket. For the non-committed voter, I don't see why that should be any different when the option is Obama. John is the old guy. We don't have to shake things up just now, we just have to make it through, and there's a stronger sense that we'll do that with somebody who's been tested than with somebody untried.