Dean Barnett

Just read about Dean's death. It's like losing another Tony Snow. Both, Dean especially, lived closer to death than most. Both lost. Death not within the natural course of time is a particular loss, and these two, such splendid, joyful, principled, loving men... It's a loss to me to see men like that lost to the world.

--------------
I'm going to include the one email exchange I had with him, many years back. I've forgotten the specific article on which he was commenting --I believe it dealt with the "need" for fetal stem-cell research. He did speak of his cystic fibrosis, and did comment on why claims of promise in a particular line of research are often so extreme:


Dear Dean Barnett,

The purpose of this email is only to say nice things:

"But they also have every incentive to put a hard sell on for their particular cause. The guy who comes in and says he’s going to make Christopher Reeve walk out of his wheelchair is likely to have a more compelling pitch than the guy who says he may someday be able to cure Diabetes in a lab rat."

Last night I was alone in my house, reading, wrought, utterly offended by this recent hucksterism passing as science, and I read that last line and broke out into a laugh. If you can make me laugh as annoyed as I was you're pretty good.

There are a great many men in the blogosphere whom I much admire and who have information and an ability to state a clear argument. They're very bright but they really can't write. When I read your pieces I see personality, humor, insight, structure, imagination, and just really fine prose. You can write.

I read because I want to understand but in your pieces I have as well the unexpected experience of pleasure. I just want you to know that's something I appreciate.

Not to put it on too heavy I will say I never heard of you before you started writing for Hugh and I went to Soxblog to check out some of you past work and found it impossible because that white-on-black is terrible. So there.

Mouse


Subj: Re: Nice Things Said
Date: 8/27/06 7:31:16 AM Central Daylight Time
From: Soxblog@aol.com
To: LttrMsgy



The white on black was wildly unpopular, but it was designed by my wife's best friend who's an artiste so, you know, I was kind of stuck. If I ever go back to Soxblog, I promise the white on black will be relegated to the ashbin of blogging history.

Thanks for the kind words!

DB

-------------------
This is the one thing I can add to the Dean Barnett history. I did just like the guy.

The Powell Affect?

K,

Sorry I didn't have time to chat. I used to always head out around noon. Now I have less to do and leave around 3:00, but I was still running late.

Powell's endorsement? A lot of people say it will help swing undecideds. Maybe. But he's military. He's not supporting a military man. He's making it pretty clear: "It's all about race." A lot of people don't like getting race shoved down their throats. As I've argued with you many many times: Racists nominated this incompetent; rational, good citizens, will not vote for an incompetent just because he's black.


See you, --Mouse

PS,
Today paid $2.38 for gas.

The Obama Effect

Yesterday I predicted that the stock market "crisis" was over, simply because everybody was bored with panic. Today it went up 11%. Credit for "investor confidence" is being given to "steps taken by European Governments to shore up bank liquidity..." or whatever. Okay, if they want the credit they can have it, they're the ones so much to blame anyway for causing the panic in the first place (primarily I mean the US government). If this makes them feel better, fine. And it is true that if the panic is truly passed, it's not coming back, so the real work of dealing with sour mortgage securities --and securities just generally over-leveraged-- can begin. That will be a matter of technical expertise, corruption, very expensive stupidities, and political profiteering. But the panic is gone because in something like this you can't cry wolf twice, so the markets will be okay. Probably sluggish (low volume for awhile), and with some volatility, just due to speculators playing the unease; but basically sound.

Crude up a bit though. That I don't like. Probably as a hedge --crude being better than treasuries-- perhaps also with some optimism, now that the Great Depression isn't going to be so great as forecast; and perhaps with some sober, soulful glee at the thought that OPEC intends to cut production and screw the West. Won't work, oil is going down. That's one bubble that's done. --Though, unfortunately, it is true that if Barack is elected oil is going back up, because there won't be any drilling, and no energy policy. No growth either, but mostly no new energy.

So, is Barack going to be elected? I say no, because if he couldn't put McCain away these last two week when The World Was Going To End, he certainly won't be able to do it now.

Of course, I am assuming two things:
--No new surprises (I am assuming markets will remain so-so);
--And the Obama Effect.

The Obama Effect is when an incompetent black guy is foisted on the American public by a lot of Liberal racists just because they like his grin and his color. Because he has been chosen because of his race, any criticism of him is because of race; and racists, of course, are despised. This makes it very difficult for anybody on the right to point out that he's a dolt.

The suppression of speech and opinion is race worship, it's a very liberal thing to do: it's powerful, pervasive, intimidating, effective, but the actual Obama Effect is what takes place in the quiet privacy of the voting booth. This is when good Americans judge that a dolt, a liar, a constant friend of those who swindle and those hate, a Messianic creation of race consciousness, is in fact not fit to lead a great and free republic.

I expect this to happen massively.

Note too:
--There are PUMAs,
--There's increased contempt for and dismissal of the press,
--There will be no surge in the youth vote. Blacks will turn out in record numbers, but the Barack the Messiah is stale now, so the youth will find absorptions others than civic resposibility.
--And good Jeffersonians will turn out in great numbers.

Boring. "Crisis" Over

Boring:

(AP:HONG KONG) Most Asian stock markets recovered Monday after last week's historic sell-off as governments in Europe and beyond intensified efforts to stabilize the world's troubled financial system.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which tumbled more than 7 percent Friday, rose about 478.80 points higher, or 3.24 percent, at 15,275.67.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX200 index was up 4.71 percent in response to a government plan to guarantee bank and other lender deposits for three years. The benchmark plunged over 8 percent on Friday, its biggest single-day fall ever....

Bah! Humbug!

The region's markets showed signs of life after leaders of the 15 euro-zone countries unveiled measures Sunday to prop up the region's ailing financial institutions. Under the plan, governments would guarantee new bank debt until the end of 2009, allow governments to help banks by buying preferred shares, and vowed to rescue important failing banks through emergency recapitalization.

In the U.S., investors were waiting to see if the Treasury Department's newly announced plan to buy equity in troubled banks would help stabilize the volatility on Wall Street. Lawmakers have urged quick action by President George W. Bush on the effort, to be funded by the $700 billion bailout he signed Oct. 3.

I have my own opinion on the matter and predicted earlier this afternoon that the "crisis" was over. This is my reasoning: I'm bored stiff. Now, of course my being bored has no causal effect on the market but this has to be the dumbest stock sell-off in human history. There are a few hundred billions of bad securities out there. This is in a world market! A few hundred billions is pennies. Yet the lending apparatus is frozen, and because of that, and all the hype that businesses can't barrow, business can't borrow, everybody panicked: Depression! Depression! A Great Depression! The World Will Collapse! Oh for God's sake. Take your lumps. So a few businesses go broke. Send flowers. But to have this huge panic just because lenders are protecting their own skin --and now waiting for government goodies-- is just nuts. The business of business is to do business. If all the governments in the world just went off somewhere and played golf I imagine business would get to business and this whole perturbation would be over in a week.

Which gets to the boredom. The whole sell-off is a sell-off of panic. Just how many days in a row can you maintain panic and not get sick of it? I'm presuming that by now most people have pooped themselves out being afraid and so instead are going to start thinking in terms of opportunity. This sure is a great time to buy, and most companies are solid. I don't know why there shouldn't be a rebound, and I don't know why companies can't get together and for the short term just by-pass the chicken little financials and loan to each other. They don't have to loan much to get leverage, they just have to have a security, and if stocks start going up they've got it.

I do think government is much too impressed with itself, with a Napoleon or three in every cabinet. I sure would like to see them be proven unnecessary. --The government can offer guarantees to businesses infected with bad securities but otherwise sound, but it seems to me that's about all it has to do.

$2.89!

Gas $2.89 a gallon 88 octane unleaded at the dinkly little filling station just three blocks from my house. I knew economic times were getting better! That's 'cause Sarah's cute and McCain wants to build forty new nuclear power plants. That means in a few years we won't need oil, world demand will be cut 25% and crude will be nine bucks a barrel. People are scared already, that's why they're trying to back out of the market and prices are heading down.

I'm sure this is true. No one understands economics like I do.

As to the debate. I said the man who wins is the man who changes votes, no other metric matters, and I said I thought McCain won because in such financially tumultuous times, nobody wants to experiment with a kid, they want to go with the old geezer who's been around, they don't want change anymore, they want to get back to the way things were. So "Hope & Change" is one dead done slogan. McCain, just by being old, probably gained votes.

But another way of considering who won is to speak of who changed the conversation. I'm going to consider both the VP debate and this one, since they came so close together, and the financial meltdown, since that has been part of these debates, (all three, actually) in terms of the emotional focus, the sense of importance, that these debates have engendered, and it certainly explains Obama's rise in the polls as a reflexive anti-Republican statement.

I say this is a totally different race than it was just two weeks ago.

First, anti-Palin derangement is different. She can no longer be dismissed as a dope. A hick and a hayseed, yes, and a racist of course, but no dope. And she knows she won, and is enjoying herself, and is going pit-bull. This is going to be real interesting: a really good looking woman attacking Bambi and just loving it. She's going to draw a lot of fire --racist, racist, racist-- but I don't see how she's attacked without acknowledging her charges. How do you call somebody a racist if you don't repeat what they said? So this will be an examination of Bambi's character.

The market meltdown? I don't see McCain being blamed for that personally. I think he's inured from that blame simply because it's so large. Only Bush is big enough to be creditably to blame, and he's not running, and McCain fought him on the bailout. Very very publicly fought. There can be blame yet as to who caused it, but in fact it was caused by Democrats and their insistence on sub-primes. This is an argument we should have, and however much it might be spun, it's one the Democrats can't win on the merits.

So HopenChange is dead, and the Dems should be on the defensive over the meltdown. This last would be automatic if the press reported facts. Such facts will be hard to get out, but some facts will out. It's what happens when things are true. --And then there are New Expenditures. Ha! Can't fly, not in these times. That takes the goody bag away from Obama, though, fortunately, He is so marvelous he's going to insist he can still do what he said before. This should twist him in some nice pretzels.

And finally, the Messiah. What happened to the Messiah? I think that's dead too. Partly it's just because the hypnotic trance has been snapped by the collapse of the markets. The tones been done broke. People are rubbing their eyes, looking again, saying: "Hey, this guy's just a kid!" --Of course, those already infected will still believe, but nicely, that powerfully means the Big M himself. And that's a self-conception that's going to express itself once-in-awhile, and in these times it will appear nuts.

So, the conversation is different now. The big thing is that it's different. McCain and Sarah will hammer Policy and Character, and Obama's minions will all hammer race... One very interesting thing about this race business. People don't like being called racists. They don't like having to hide their views for fear of being called racist. They will, because they are afraid. But how afraid will they be in the voting booth?

Dis da Dude

Some notes I made last night, coming in after a long walk. May make a further note after the debate.

--No BDS anymore? It doesn't seem I've seen much. Perhaps partly because it's been redirected to Palin, but probably also because the campaign is now finally intense, and finally Bush just isn't the emotional focus.

--Part of the continuing tank in stocks might be because of the conviction that Obama is going to be the next President, and everyone realizes that not only is he a radical lefty, he's also out of his depth. --Very speculative speculation.

--Part might be because it's so clear the congress isn't serious. If they had been it would have been a one issue bill, no pork, and with a clearly stated plan. The way it is it's just Paulson handing out money to his friends. There's utterly nothing there to assure anybody he knows what he's doing. A less speculative speculation.

--McCain not making eye-contact with Obama in the last debate? A tactic.

Obama is an unknown, merely an image. He has to be defined. No one can more convincingly define Obama than himself. He has the veneer of the academic but in personality is fundamentally an inner city street thug. Part of that culture is one of immense self-esteem: Don't dare diss me, man! When McCain doesn't look at him, and constantly references: "He just doesn't understand," then Obama is being dissed. If McCain can get under his skin enough, he might get him to have an outburst. That would be a communication that he's not fit to lead, and it wouldn't be something anybody could spin, because it came from the Big O's lips.

I imagine this is conscious on McCain's part. He doesn't want to be aggressive, just dismissive. This is a super excellent idea. It would help if he could reference Sarah as superior. Oh, my oh my, how insulting that would be to a studly black dude. --Sarah could help if she could make some slighting statement just before... Problem, it would have to be covered. Maybe Bill could say something.

Note: Barack does already consider himself President. One is perhaps very set to be offended if one is already the president.

----------------
Debate

Debate just over, hard to score it. I'm only interested in who changed votes, and I can't make a judgment on that.

--McCain is stiff, and so seems old, but he's not old in his speech. He was "imploring" the entire time. I put that in quotes because it was also an earnestness and an intensity. I rather like it, I'm not sure about others.

--Barack is young, moves young, speaks young. Nothing special about that, it's a quality of being young. Nothing special about his voice, there's a clear attempt to have an authoritative tone. That I find offensive because fake, but I don't know how others respond.

--McCain didn't dis da dude. In the last half-hour, foreign policy, he did get Barack to show some annoyance: "John seems to think I'm green behind the ears." Yes. And earlier Barack insisted on having more time to statements McCain had made. I've got nothing against that, it's a question of how it played. McCain, then asserting that he also should have more time, seemed more a man asserting a principle of fairness, than a man irritated and demanding. But minor stuff.

--Don't much care for either of them on much of their domestic policy, but McCain, I thought forcefully, insisted on the need for nuclear power. That's a biggy for me. And in foreign policy he just clearly communicates more authority. Barack, in energy policy, constantly falls back on conservation, and green energy. There's no doubt at all that he would not drill and would not develop nuclear.

--But this is policy. Barack is through and through a liberal. McCain is sort of half-and-half. For myself, just in terms of policy, there's no doubt whom I prefer. But what about the uncommitted voter? I just don't know how they respond. Was there any separation in skill of answers that I missed that might means something to the less informed voter? Obviously, if I missed it, I can't comment on it. Of course I found a few of McCain's responses crisp and insightful, and saw none similar from Bambi.

--Each camp will claim victory. Barack has the media, he'll win the ratings hands down. I do think that "in trying times" a young kid has to come across as very powerful to be thought preferable to an old hand. So in this respect, though Obama will be declared the winner, and conservatives will bemoan McCain's "last chance" to make a dent, I in fact think he did well, and helped himself among those yet wavering.

----------------
Sent this in as a comment but have decided to include it in my blog, though it simply repeats what I earlier said:

McCain comes across as an old guy and stiff. He is an old guy and stiff, but his voice was earnest, his emotions imploring, and his mind competent. In foreign policy he communicates a natural command.

Obama comes across as a young guy. He is a young guy. There are a lot of them in the world. He definitely seems bright enough to be a grad student, but while he lowers his voice to sound authoritative, there's never a sense that he dominates.

I try to imagine the thinking of a swing voter. Who won the debate is the one who changed votes. Everyone just now recognizes we're in perilous times. That being the case, even ignoring how the debate might have been scored on points, who wants to go with a young guy who sounds just like every other young guy, rather than go with an old guy, who, while perhaps not coming across as brilliant, has at least been around for awhile?

It seems to me that for Barack to win he had to dominate. At best he managed a tie.

The reason I'm including it is the sudden sense I had while writing it that the change mantra is dead. We have change now and it's very unpleasant. Who wants more? Americans now want stability. Change in terms of specifics is still wanted, but as a mindless evocation of something exciting I think it's dead. I see that now as an advantage Obama has lost.

--Should note that most of the conservative commentary I've read is of the opinion that McCain did only moderately well and that a tie goes to the leader in the polls. Among low information voters I just don't see that. Nobody wants change anymore, they want to get back to the way things were. In that case I think a tie goes to the old guy. --I'll note that as exciting as conservatives find Sarah Palin, I'm pretty sure they're all pleased it's John McCain who's at the head of the ticket. For the non-committed voter, I don't see why that should be any different when the option is Obama. John is the old guy. We don't have to shake things up just now, we just have to make it through, and there's a stronger sense that we'll do that with somebody who's been tested than with somebody untried.

Bozo Bailout Bust

Wow, over-night Asian markets are having their worst day ever! Other than for having the satisfaction of saying "I told you so" on this stupid, poorly considered 700 billion bozo bailout bill, I can't say I like seeing that happen.

I'm surprised. I'd somehow expected they'd be getting their own house in order, somewhat indifferent to and separate from what was happening in America; the idea being that basic wealth hasn't changed, only the mechanism is screwed up so some sort of temporary parallel structure should be possible. Guess I don't know nuth'n.

I wonder how politics is going to go in the morning, when all the political genius gents wake up and find their big bill did nothing? --How about the really dumb people, otherwise known as the US Congress, the US President, the US presidential candidates, and every appointed official within the US government, actually sit down and try to figure something out... other than just ask for a lot more money?

---------------
About Noon.

Dow down 500? 600? Who cares? Boring story. They keep running the same line, over and over.

We need a new script. How about we stand Barney & Dodd up on the capitol steps and cut their guts out? A new twist, so to speak.

Or maybe just burn 700 billion dollars and then light some candles at night? You know,
something effective.

--------------
Crude's down and I paid $3.07 for a gallon of gas yesterday. That's nice. --And Cuda is going after Bambi. That's about it for the good news.

---------------
Note Last, (for the time being)

Russia suspended MICEX:

Trading on Russia’s ruble-denominated stock market, the MICEX, was suspended today after its main index nosedived more than 15 per cent on worries about global financial turmoil.

So, since Russia is now tin-pot third world, viable only by natural resource exploitation, and since oil is now in decline, and their untrustworthy market in free-fall; since this is very bad for them, it might be good for us. They are a rogue nation, and still have some force, unfortunately, because so many of the leftist sort still think they're still the Soviet Union and still have power. They bluster, the left blinks. But the good thing about the present difficulty is that if we're badly damaged, they'll be wiped out. If it damages us, it will destroy them. Bye-bye Poots, and we won't even have to defend Georgia. --This is again, a silver lining. Perhaps there are more. --Unfortunately, it seems voter sentiment is now moving powerfully Obama. Maybe he can make Pootsie his Secretary of State.

-------------------
3:50
Checking in.

(AP:NEW YORK) Wall Street suffered through another extraordinary and traumatic session Monday, with the Dow Jones industrials plunging as much as 800 points _ their largest one-day point drop _ before recovering to close with a loss of 370....

Investors have come to the realization that the Bush administration's$700 billion rescue plan and steps taken by other governments won't workquickly to unfreeze the credit markets.

No. Investors knew that Friday, when the markets started down at the same time as the bailout passed. It's only financial writers who have now realized that 700 billion is piddle compared to 63 trillion of infected credit worldwide. Our very stupid Mr. Paulson and our herd-panicked congressman would have understood that as well, if they weren't so infected with the idea that it's fun to spend tax payers money while pretending that a command economy is more powerful than the private market.

So we're all going to die. Oh well, it's nice out but threatening rain. Guess I'll go out for a walk in the woods while I still can.

Crude hit $87.56. That's good. I'm hopping for $40. That will take care of Poots and the Sauds. At least we'll have won world war three. --Still need an energy policy though. That probably won't happen without the Cuda.

------------------
Jay Cost has splendid historical background explaining why Republicans are inescapably associated with this mess with the banks, and thus why about the only recourse left to McCain is to ignore the crisis and attack Obama's character. Obama, after all, is a pretty weak fish to be flopping in the oval office during a time of crisis.

Can they succeed at this? Perhaps. Again, Obama is unlike any major
party nominee seen in over a hundred years. Public opinion of him is based
largely upon political claims about him, as opposed to an immutable record
of accomplishment or even a long history on the national scene. That means
that the perception of who Obama is might be quite changeable. If the Republican
Party can succeed in changing it, they can win the election - even as the
banking industry's reputation falls into the gutter.

I say, "Bring it on!" At least it will be an entertainment.

Cuda Coulda Cracked

But didn't.

As I continue my three day romance, Sarah back in my life, I'm going to note one point I saw in the debate that delighted me then and has stayed with me since: that point when I saw her break to a sudden grin, Joe speaking, then turn to him with the most courteous blade of the assassin, and begin to slice away flesh... as an entertainment! She was enjoying herself.

What a delight to see. "My girl" suddenly relaxed. It happened in only a moment, maybe two-thirds way through the debate, but suddenly, she knew she had taken the measure of this guy and she could handle him. And at that moment, though she may not have realized it until a day later, it was suddenly, at that moment, that she recognized she was a national player. She could handle these guys. She's never going to want for self-confidence again.

How Many Watched?

Developing... as the Drudge sayeth. He includes this link, stating preliminary ratings show it as having drawn 33% more than the McCain/Obama debate. I would like to see actual numbers, but the more who watched, the fewer who can be spun by the media.

And the House plans a second bailout vote... Bummer. At least they're not fully confident yet.

And stocks have popped up a bit in very early trading --bargin hunting?-- bummer, and then pulled back a bit. I just don't want that bill. The problem is, I don't know what signal the market can now send with the vote so closely pending. If it goes up, it's "because the markets are encouraged", if it goes down, "the rescue is urgently needed." At least crude is down a bit.

I don't know why I put links in on stories that are going to be old in 20 minutes. --Can't get the Drudge link to work anyway.

-------------------
Notes From Last Night

--Very bad for the media, especially Couric and Gibson. If they couldn't get an intelligent interview out of this clearly intelligent and very engaging woman it's clearly because they didn't want to. And then of course, there was the cutting room floor, which implicates their entire organization, and the complicity of the rest of the media in celebrating and advertising this particular and strange coup. Of course, I recognize this as what was happening, as do millions of others, but after last night there will be millions more on board. --But truth to tell, the constant reiteration of the "message" even as it's recognized to be manufactured and intended to harm, still has an effect. Cuda coulda collapsed, and that created worry.

--He claiming the "change" mantle, within the contex of debating a botox gopher, is convincing. It's no doubt who it is who's fresh, who it is who represents change.

--Off topic. "malignant narcissism", the psychiatric diagnosis of Barack: an exceptionally high opinion of ones-self with no accomplishment to back it up. I wonder if this might be a contributing reason as to why blacks support him so powerfully, beyond the simple racial identification? Part of black culture is "self-esteem". This is especially true in the inner city, where the impressively ignorant are bountifully arrogant, and will not be "dissed". Possibly his pathology resonates with his.

------------------
Hot Dog!

House passes bailout, stocks plunge. It was passed somewhere shortly after 1:00PM. Is it possible to note any correlation? --Really really dumb bill. --Really really dumb bill. Now we're going to waste 700 billion under the control of stupidity.

-----------------

The only pleasing news. Last night's debate

42% higher than Friday's presidential debate between top-of-the-ticket contenders John McCain and Barack Obama

I'll say nearly half of America watched. That's everybody who's going to vote. That should make it impossible for the media to spin that Sarah is stupid. But we've still got that stupid bill that's going to stink like a dead fish in six weeks. I certainly wouldn't want to have to take credit for having passed that thing.

------------
I guess I'll post this since I wrote it. I won't bother to write it just as a post:

Dear J,

"I guess the French banks are okay."

PARIS/LONDON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said on Friday the world stood on the "edge of the abyss", gripped by a global financial crisis now threatening industry, trade and jobs worldwide.

"The world is on the edge of the abyss because of an irresponsible system," Fillon said, alluding to widespread anger over past lax regulation of financial markets and excessive lending.

I don't actually know anything specific about the French system, but this is world wide. In your second email you're doing what is called "thinking". I have no problem with spending 700 billion dollars to avert catastrophe, but the reason I'm so opposed to this bailout is because there's no thinking behind the bill. It's throwing money up into the air, all under the control of only one man, with no intelligent sense of how to effectively use that money. The problem is the uncertain value of the assets that back loans, it's not that the assets have lost value. Some have value and some don't. That's because the bad assets have been mixed in packages with the good, but in such a complex way --traded again and again-- that it's exceptionally hard to know which is where. That's why nobody is willing to trust any. And that methodology of discovery is exactly what has not been addressed in this bill.

--All projects depend on loans, at least effectively. There is no economic activity not supported by loans.

--The banks, for the most part, are not stuck with these loans, they sold them all to Fanny and Freddie. Fanny and Freddie then mixed them with other assets and sent them out world wide. Other banks broke up these packages more to suit their own interests, and sent them out. By one calculation, 63 trillion dollars of assets are now infected by these bad loans. And nobody knows where they are.

--Many of these loans were no money down and interest only payments.

--When housing prices fell due to over supply, and adjustable mortgage rates went up, buyers could no longer either make their payments or sell for a profit. They bailed. The "loan asset", it's value based on their payments, were then zero. These zero value assets are now scattered all over.

--But the houses still exist, they are worth something. There still would be wealth and credit --though loss-- if people knew where they were. But since they don't, credit is frozen, and with no credit there's no economic activity. Thus the crisis.

--It's to keep things from total collapse that governments want to pump money into the system, to buy time.

--The question then though, is who is going to sort out that bad debt, and how? This is where the financial arguments become really difficult.

--I presume most of the good work will be done by individual businesses, taking loss but making arrangements enabling lending. A lot of government money being promised makes them less inclined to get to it; they wait for the bailout. This prolongs the crises, and makes it worse.

--The bailout bill is bad.


See you, --Mouse

PS
All of your reasoning is correct, but the problem isn't the loss of value, it's that this loss of value is intermingled all over, and disguised. That's why these assets are considered "toxic", rather than just a loss. People don't really know what packages hold them and which don't. --This anyway is my understanding. --At some point these house will be sold for some value. --And credit isn't actually "frozen". That's hyperbole. There's just a lot less credit being sought now because, to cover risk, it costs so much. I'm speaking of the private sector.

I'm sick of this stuff and disgusted and terribly afraid it's going to give us Obama, whom I consider meglomaniacly insane.

Dow Down

Dow down, even after salvation by the Senate last night. Man do I hope the House defeats this lemon. I'm not particularly pleased at the thought of losing personal wealth if there's a severe downturn, but I'm much more concerned with the wealth of the nation. Everything I value is supported by that wealth. I want to see us do well, but to do well requires intelligent response, and everything I've learned about these matters over the past two weeks tells me that this is not a well considered plan; and I immensely resent the fear mongering, the attempt to stampede. Fear is wholesome because calamity is possible, but "Do it my way" is never an argument.

I regard the failure of the promise of passage of this plan to stem the decline of the markets as a certain argument that people who do know something about economics don't regard this plan's efficacy any more highly than do I. And then of course the low class twits who have been hyperventilating fear have made matters much worse.

---------------
1:45 AM
--Stocks lower overseas pretty much everywhere. Good. I hope that argues that our piddly 700 billion bailout really won't do much. We need not so much a bailout as new thinking.
--And Sarah did just fine. I'm delighted. And relieved.

------------------
3:30 PM. Closing:

The Dow Jones industrials fell 348 points to the 10,482 level, according to preliminary calculations.

Good. We're all going to die. Bring it on! But at least kill the bill. If the bill isn't going to do any good --it won't-- why not at least spend the 700 billion to pay my heating bills this winter? We ought to at least get something for our money. And kick Paulson out in the street without a sweater.

But crude is down to 93 bucks. I like that.

The Bad Boat Floats

Dow closing only down .17%. Not bad, considering bad economic indices (the fall in manufacturing activity), and a plunge in the value of US auto stocks.

The bailout? The operative term is "unease", investors don't know if it's going to pass or fail. I have an idea nobody cares a great deal, not like Monday. If it fails, prices will drop a little, if it passes, prices will rise a little, but I think the moment has passed where the market believes that what the congress does or does not do is what will determine the movement of the economy. An influence, yes, but not determinant.

Crude down $2.07, that's with inventories reported much higher than expected. Seems like a proportionate response.

Once more on the bailout. "Officials in both parties predicted the measure would pass the Senate by a wide margin." That's from INO, perhaps it's the presumption at NYMEX. My preference would be that it fail. Then the FDIC and Mark-to-Market changes could be immediately passed, to salvage something, and congressional leaders could get back to coming up with a more intelligent way to spend a vast amount of money. It certainly appears that won't happen.

-------------------
Note: Best article I've so far read on how we got here. May comment on it later. Should speculate too, on political fall-out. McCain certainly has taken a tremendous hit on this matter. I really don't want Barack as my next president.

-------------------
Heavens! McCain back to within four in Gallup?! Considering how retched everything is, this is clearly impossible for a Republican. It must indicate that most voters have verypowerfully already made up their minds, "come hell or high water".

---------------
8:40
Bailout passes, about a half hour ago: 75 - 24. Not admirable. I don't know why the house can't just ignore it, or declare it null and void, since constitutionally it's the House that initiates spending bills.

(AP:NEW YORK) Wall Street is reacting cautiously to the Senate's passage of the banking bailout plan. Stock index futures, which give an indication of how trading will proceed when the market opens Thursday, are down moderately after the vote.

Dow Jones industrial average futures are down 48, or 0.44 percent, at 10,839.

This about 8:50. I guess this was what the hullabaloo was all about? To drive stocks down a bit?

-------------------
Honor Role:

Allard (R)
Barasso (R)
Brownback (R)
Bunning (R)
Cantwell (D)
Cochran (R)
Crapo (R)
DeMint (R)
Dole (R)
Dorgan (D)
Enzi (R)
Feingold (D)
Inhofe (R)
Johnson (D)
Landrieu (D)
Nelson (FL) (D)
Roberts (R)
Sanders (I)
Sessions (R)
Shelby (R)
Stabenow (D)
Tester (D)
Vitter (R)
Wicker (R)
Wyden (D)
--------------------
From INO, about 10:30 PM

(AP:NEW YORK) Financial markets reacted cautiously to the Senate'spassage of the banking bailout plan late Wednesday, with stock indexfutures falling and indicating a drop when trading resumed Thursday.There was no discernible change in the credit markets after the vote....

Wednesday night, Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 85, or0.78percent, at 10,802. The Standard &Poor's 500 index futureswere down9.8, or 0.84 percent, at 1,158.60, and Nasdaq 100 futures weredown 17.75,or 1.1 percent, at 1,561.00.

In Japan, the Nikkei index was down 0.99 percent.

Way to go.
---------
------------------
Update, about 11:30 PM.

"Asian stock markets retreated Thursday as broader concerns about a global economic slowdown outweighed any relief over the U.S. Senate's passage of the bailout package to rescue the U.S. financial system."

Yawn.
---------------------
Interesting. This bailout bill is not an unconstitutionally initiated spending bill coming out of the Senate, it's actually merely an amendment to a bill (the AMT bill: Average Minimum Tax) already originated and passed in the house, passed in the Senate, and now returned with this vast but legal amendment.

Interestingly though, the house must either pass it exactly in its present form, or appoint conferees to work out a compromise in conference. So no new goody -packed House bill....

Except, I see no reason they couldn't just ignore it entirely. I don't see why they have to vote on it if they don't want to, I don't see why they have to send it to conference. They could just write a new bailout, and send it to the Senate, and the Senate couldn't do a thing about it. And then when they do get this bill to conference they could just strike the bailout. My.