Saturday Night Debates

Who won means who changed votes, but how in the heck do you determine what will change a vote? Nothing would change my vote. I want Romney defeated, that means I vote for the guy who has the best chance against him, which means I vote for McCain, though I rate him, and his performance, behind Huckabee, Rudy, and Thompson.

I should note there was an atmosphere of a bunch of guys not liking the geek. In personality Romney just doesn't fit in. Somehow he's not manly. He can't take a gibe, he can't deliver a gibe, he doesn't seem relaxed among peers, and his support of Bush's policies doesn't seem to be conviction but goody two shoes polishing the apple. He's just an exceptionally easy guy to dislike and distrust. Even Ron Paul is more likable, even though I consider his libertarian views to be screwy.

This round table, this informal setting, was very bad for Romney. He just comes across as the prickly nerd nobody likes so why should you like him either? I would say each of the other candidates came across as more manly and normal, and each strengthened their support, at least vis a vis Romney. So Romney clearly lost votes.

That might be enough.

Did McCain lose votes? This possibility bothers me. He could have lost some to Rudy. New Hampshire voters know Rudy, he's been up there a lot, and he did well in the debate and while he has given the state up, he may have reminded some people why they initially liked him.

I don't know what the motivation to vote for McCain would be anyway, except that he's "authentic" compared to Romney (as are all the others) and that he could beat Romney. This later thought would keep McCain supporters from pulling their votes to one of the others.

Ron Paul's support will stay solid, because you've got to be a nut to support him anyway.

Huckabee's support will stay solid, because if you supported him in the first place you would want to maintain your vote to maintain his viability down the line.

With Rudy there's no reason to maintain your vote because he's as much as said no vote for him counts until Florida.

Thompson could have taken some votes from Romney. Their positions are the same, it's only their intellects and personalities that are different, and I think it was Thompson(?) who got Romney to talk about his Massachusetts health care plan --Romney's weakest response because he admitted to a provision that required people to get health insurance. There are arguments for penalizing people who need care though they haven't gotten insurance, but he seemed rather gleeful in that penalty/mandate aspect. So maybe Fred took some from Mitt. There are a lot of people who would put their vote on Fred because they would like to see him stay in the game.

So then there's McCain. Did he take any from Mitt? He is embarrassed on immigration, whenever that comes up, but then so is everybody else, and Mitt not least, though he was the one trying to hammer McCain.

So I don't know. Romney clearly lost votes, but I don't know where they went.

Did Huckabee take any from Mitt? Could have. He's now seen as the Giant Slayer. This might be the first time most people in New Hampshire paid any attention to him, and except for his first response defending his foreign policy article he clearly was more forceful and quicker that Mitt, --and he certainly does think outside the box.

Independents? Will they be inclined to vote in this primary, or with the Democrats? It may not really matter. These races are very close, and in either case on balance they're going to vote against the front runner.

So, Democrats?

Who cares? Defeat the Pill, that's the only thing that matters. I don't think she did anything to hurt herself, I don't think Obama lived up to his press out of Iowa. Edwards, I think, was more forceful than his reputation. Part of Hillary's appeal is that she's tough. It's possible Edwards could have taken a few of those votes.

And in New Hampshire, as in Iowa, there is the question of how many independents will show up. That is important because Obama still is probably slightly behind. If they show up they will vote Obama, very few will vote Hillary. He's new, she's just the same old all over again.

Final thought for the night:
The guys really got to quit beating up on the nerd, who dreams of soon being the leader of the free world. It could hurt his feelings. He might even make a face.