My Fate, My Happiness...

...is to be determined today. Do you know how unhappy Hillary will be if she loses? Do you know how unhappy I will be if she wins? Do you know who's happiness is most important?

Actually, I am pretty happy just now. It appears that the two things I most wanted to happen this election season are about to happen, that both Hillary and Romney lose both initial contests. To have thought that could happen two months ago would have been fairly tale. It seems now to be about fairy-tale-come-true.

My preference is that they both disappear from existence. I'll settle for just the two initial losses each. This means that Hillary can't any longer run as fantasy heir to the throne, she will have to run as an individual politician exhibiting personal skills and personal capacities --she hasn't any; and Romney too, having been unable to buy his first two states to slingshot himself to the nomination, will have to run on resume and capacity. Closely examined, he has none. He does have wealth, and a great many stupid people saying he's bright. Okay stupid people, prove it. We have now what politically I would call a level playing field. He no longer has his head start, he only has his millions. He's proven he can buy Rush Limbaugh and the National Review. Let's see if he can actually buy an American citizen.

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I should include this from David Brooks, one of the few sensible conservatives now writing. He was comparing the personalities of Obama and McCain, treating each quite well. I only quote a short bit on McCain:

John McCain has cordial relations with Obama, but he is very different.
He is most moved by examples of heroism and individual excellence. His books
are about individual character and patriotism, not networks or community-building.

He is not a loner (in fact, he dislikes being alone), but whether
he is a prisoner of war or a senator, he is acutely aware of how corrupt
social pressures encroach on individual integrity. While Obama seeks solidarity
with groups, McCain resists conformity. He fights fiercely, though not always
successfully, against political pressures in order to remain honest, brave and forthright.

More later. It appears McCain will win even just among Republicans, not actually needing the independent vote.

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Romney Insane?

2:55 PM, Okay, I've done my first check of the news today. Very heavy turnout, maybe a record, no exit polls released until just before the polls close. Presumably an immense win for Obama, a more modest win for McCain.

Jim Geraghty at The Campaign Spot has an interesting entry. He considers the structure of the Independent vote, noting that almost all of them, despite their declared independence, still reliably vote either Republican or Democrat, so while their infusion is great in number, there's actually very little switch from one party to the other; nevertheless, those calling themselves Independent highly favor either McCain or Obama, so high turnout is good for both. Then he continues:

Second, polling for much of the year indicated that independents were much more interested in the Democratic primary - a 60-40 split, roughly - and recent days have shown that suddenly swinging back to 50-50. So.... if, as polls indicate, John McCain is tied or just a bit ahead of Romney among registered Republicans, and is ahead among independents by two to one, then it doesn't really matter what proportion of the GOP electorate is independents.

And then there's this interesting bit:

Having said all that, I'm hearing reports of confidence in the Romney camp. Talk like, "high level officials have promised him a win," and "all the numbers are in place now." So maybe they see something the polls don't.

Or maybe they're all self-deceptive and crazy as loons.

Further note: If it's true that Independents of a Republican leaning are reliably Republican regardless of their self identification, then McCain's showing over all, is an actual indication of his Republican strength. What he can do in New Hampshire he can do in other states, because in other states "independents" are going to be registered as Republican. So how he does among registered Republicans in New Hampshire isn't as representative of his Republican strength as how well he does over all.

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Results:

First check, 7:20. McCain has already been declared the winner, 12% reporting (I believe one county); this would mean his victory is a projection based on exit polls.

Surprisingly, Hillary leads Obama, by a fair amount. Presumably both Republican and Democrat returns come from the same county. Does this mean that all independents voted Republican, leaving none for Obama? Could be, if it's a very Republican county. That would leave only registered Democrats voting for Hillary --and maybe very committed Democrats if existing in a Republican district...? Don't know, this doesn't make a lot of sense. Could be a ploy, give Hillary good press at the very beginning, to ease the sting later?

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8:01
Obama seems to be coming up in the raw vote total. A possible explanation for his lag: To vote in any given precinct you only have to be in line by 8:00. Could be that in the Obama heavy districts there are long lines.

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More on Romney Insanity. This is Bradly quoting Minter quoting some other guy:

“Here’s a scenario I have heard at least dozen times from different Romney supporters across New Hampshire. The independent vote, which accounts for almost half the vote in the Granite State, will go disproportionately for Obama, they say. That will rob McCain of votes and give Romney a chance to eke out a victory.

“I buttonholed Andrew Smith, the renowned pollster at the University of New Hampshire. He had heard the Romney victory scenario too. But he isn’t buying it.

“While he acknowledges that the excitement of voters for Obama is overwhelming, he cautioned that the independent vote isn’t that independent or monolithic. The independent vote, he said, is really divided into three parts. Some 45% of self-declared independents regularly vote in Democratic primaries. They will vote for Obama and, to a much lesser extent, Clinton. Another 30% of the independent vote votes almost exclusively in Republican primaries; they are not going to shift to the Democratic primary to support Obama. These voters favor McCain disproportionately. As for the rest of the independents? They may vote in the Democratic primary or vote in the Republican primary for Ron Paul. They were never really counted in the McCain column anyway.

“So the Romney hope isn’t based on an understanding of traditional voting patterns.

“Besides, Smith points out, his latest polls of likely New Hampshire voters show McCain ahead among Republican voters.”

Romney conceeded likytysplit, presumably to get his defeat out of the public eye.