To Begin...
Sure good reading last night. Chavez lost his referendum, Obama and Huckabee lead in Iowa, and Mitt is going to give a speech calling me a bigot for taking my own religion seriously.
What a night for news, and Oh, according to the RCP averages, $50 million Mitt has dropped a little nationally to 12.2% at 4th place, and not-a-dime Huck is nationally at 10%. And so the Two Man Race is now between 12.2 Mitt and 29% Giuliani... It takes a political pro to explain just how that works.
I'm going to make a predication now, one that's been in my mind for months: The national race will become a two man race, it will be between Giuliani and Not-Giuliani, and Not-Giuliani will not be Mitt. And my reasoning is this: Mitt is a very disagreeable fellow.
In this case I assert my own instinctual response to him, and assert further that most people respond just as I do. Now of course I don't know that, but the guy makes my skin crawl, and I expect that's the same for most people and that's why his numbers don't rise, despite the 50 million spent, and the immense amount of publicity.
I have been wrong. I called 2006 for the Republicans. My oh my, was I wrong. I'm not going to mention my reasoning at the moment except to note it was very much based on the thought: Other people must think like me. Wow. But I'm reasoning the same way now.
And I note, again and again, I've heard: Mitt is really a nice guy. Sorry, I just don't see it. I actually think his Mormon faith protects him from this simple observation, that he's about as pleasant as Hillary. Because if you said that, since it's only an impression, not an argument, it would clearly indicate you're a bigot, it's got to be because you hate his religion, not because you find him unpleasant and a lying fake.
And so now we're going to have "the speech". This is excellent. It's he who is bringning up his faith, and once brought up it's fair game... and so is his personality! Of course there will still be PC discretions, but there will be discussion.
My own feeling is that Mitt is totally out of touch with me. He doesn't have the same deep, inexpressible assumptions I have, simply because his faith (which I'm told he does hold sincerely) is so different from mine that he just doesn't see the world in the same way as I.
We'll see. I suspect his candidacy is dead this weekend, because I suspect if he does speak from the heart, he will be seen as "different"; and if, as is most probable, he instead tries to finesse and manipulate, well then he'll be seen as a man who has something to hide, and that is not a good impression for a man to leave who wants to be the leader of the free world and the man who determines when the bombs drop where.
But we'll see. I know next to zilch about Mormonism. I do know, that if I were quizzed about my faith, I would discuss it easily. It's a man who has to hide his faith who makes me worry. --It's my feeling --my analysis, I should say-- that the reason he comes across to me as so unpleasant is because his whole life has been a practice of never being open, of consciously being aware that he is different from me, and so has to be a fraud to be accepted, and so is "fake" to some degree in every statement he makes.
This is only my impression. By the end of this week I should have an opinion based on information, not one that is just instinct.
What a night for news, and Oh, according to the RCP averages, $50 million Mitt has dropped a little nationally to 12.2% at 4th place, and not-a-dime Huck is nationally at 10%. And so the Two Man Race is now between 12.2 Mitt and 29% Giuliani... It takes a political pro to explain just how that works.
I'm going to make a predication now, one that's been in my mind for months: The national race will become a two man race, it will be between Giuliani and Not-Giuliani, and Not-Giuliani will not be Mitt. And my reasoning is this: Mitt is a very disagreeable fellow.
In this case I assert my own instinctual response to him, and assert further that most people respond just as I do. Now of course I don't know that, but the guy makes my skin crawl, and I expect that's the same for most people and that's why his numbers don't rise, despite the 50 million spent, and the immense amount of publicity.
I have been wrong. I called 2006 for the Republicans. My oh my, was I wrong. I'm not going to mention my reasoning at the moment except to note it was very much based on the thought: Other people must think like me. Wow. But I'm reasoning the same way now.
And I note, again and again, I've heard: Mitt is really a nice guy. Sorry, I just don't see it. I actually think his Mormon faith protects him from this simple observation, that he's about as pleasant as Hillary. Because if you said that, since it's only an impression, not an argument, it would clearly indicate you're a bigot, it's got to be because you hate his religion, not because you find him unpleasant and a lying fake.
And so now we're going to have "the speech". This is excellent. It's he who is bringning up his faith, and once brought up it's fair game... and so is his personality! Of course there will still be PC discretions, but there will be discussion.
My own feeling is that Mitt is totally out of touch with me. He doesn't have the same deep, inexpressible assumptions I have, simply because his faith (which I'm told he does hold sincerely) is so different from mine that he just doesn't see the world in the same way as I.
We'll see. I suspect his candidacy is dead this weekend, because I suspect if he does speak from the heart, he will be seen as "different"; and if, as is most probable, he instead tries to finesse and manipulate, well then he'll be seen as a man who has something to hide, and that is not a good impression for a man to leave who wants to be the leader of the free world and the man who determines when the bombs drop where.
But we'll see. I know next to zilch about Mormonism. I do know, that if I were quizzed about my faith, I would discuss it easily. It's a man who has to hide his faith who makes me worry. --It's my feeling --my analysis, I should say-- that the reason he comes across to me as so unpleasant is because his whole life has been a practice of never being open, of consciously being aware that he is different from me, and so has to be a fraud to be accepted, and so is "fake" to some degree in every statement he makes.
This is only my impression. By the end of this week I should have an opinion based on information, not one that is just instinct.
posted by mouse at 3:37 PM
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