What Did It Cost?

The sailors have been released. What did it cost us? Probably nothing.

This is my present thinking. There's a lot of speculation we cut a deal, we caved, and when it comes out it will be a terrible embarrassment.

I doubt it. Mullahs are dumb. Conservatives tend to think they're cagey and in "real politic" outclass our own hopelessly innocent leaders. I doubt it. Mullahs only know Mullahdom and absolutely utterly nothing else. I have an idea the sailors were captured just because the Mullahs were peeved and that's what they do. But it didn't turn out well. Other than some propaganda, some humiliation of the sailors, they didn't get much. They could have gotten less, if the sailors had shown spine, but they didn't get much. They didn't get much criticism, but they got no support. From their standpoint, net negative.

I do speculate that they probably did get some private communication. Something in the nature of (to use what I find an appropriate phrase) "You're about to be blown out of the water." If they wanted an "assurance", this they were given, and it may have clarified their cognitive processes; so they staged a last news conference --a silly one, actually, because so out-of-touch with the reality of their comparative weakness-- and whipped, hunkered down, and just now are hoping the bombs don't drop.

Speculation, I admit, but good sense, and in accord with the power we do have, and probably also in accord with our future intent. There was no deal, they caved, and it was because they were given "assurances". Now, who could have given them those "assurances"?

I have a further speculation that Iran may be an effectively functioning democracy before Iraq.

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I have to include this, "Pratfall in Damascus" because it's fun. When the Washinton Post can conclude an editorial with these words:

We have found much to criticize in Mr. Bush's military strategy and regional diplomacy. But Ms. Pelosi's attempt to establish a shadow presidency is not only counterproductive, it is foolish.

...it's fun. --As I understand, she's also responsible for the release of the British hostages and invented the internet.


In the same vein, this is nice, except it's from John Podhoretz, and so is more what you would expect.

And this is good, from the London Telegraph: They're free, but Britain has been humiliated

Relief at the freeing of the British sailors and Marines in Iran is tempered with dismay at the humiliation to which they and the country they serve have been subjected.....
This bodes badly for the West's relations with Teheran over a number of acutely difficult problems during the coming months....

Good. Very good. Humiliation might sharpen the British cognitive processes.