Faith, Authority, Choice
Been reading, making lotsa notebook notes. I may a little later copy out last night's entry, just to have it on record, but I can't say I made much progress in understanding.
The question at issue is prognostication of the coming election. I start from the presumption that the race will be close because the country is evenly divided. There will not be a wave because there can not be a wave without a reason and the Democrats offer none and the country is in pretty good shape. It is in an ill-mood but that's a media creation of constant carping and blame and is not deep and is not gong to much affect the vote; and pollsters who think party identification has much changed over the last two years have simultaneously been paying too much attention to the media and not enough.
I might note one thing about pollsters. I sure don't like their present results, not merely because they're not on my side but because they violate my sense of the way things really are. But I can't dismiss them, I can't do my own poll.
It's interesting that I can easily dismiss climate warming alarmists because they're discussing something that is rational, the material world obeying knowable laws. I don't have to study very much to know that their certainties are not based on science but on politics. Pollsters are much harder to dismiss, because their subject isn't rational, or at least doesn't obey known or knowable laws. Their subject is the individual voter, taken in composite and then broken down into preference. But who really knows what's really going on in the brain of the individual voter?
I stick now, after a great deal of reading and thought, with what had been my automatic assumption at the very beginning of this consideration on the coming elections, that while media coverage and the political tone has very greatly changed in the last two years, underlying facts and values are about the same and so I assume this election will be about the same as the last, that is, close.
So, how to prognosticate? Republican retention? Or narrow Democrat victory?
For this I finally go to faith, authority, and choice, I can do no other. I simply see no very powerful arguments toward either side. So I chose choice. I will chose my authority, and hope that they're right.
On the one hand you have George Bush and Karl Rove and Ken Melman predicting Republican retention of both houses, and on the other Novak and Barone and Zogby and Barnes predicting narrow control of the house by the Democrats (If you go nut left you get a greater predicted margin).
So who to chose as Authority?
I go with George Bush and Karl Rove, because I consider them smarter than Novak, Barone, Zogby, Barnes... Daschle or Charlie Cook. They actually win elections.
I dismiss all Democrats and MSM. They're nuts.
I dismiss pollsters because I think they're caught up in the same bubble as Democrats and MSM and aren't doing a very good job.
I stick with my basic idea that on serious matters Americans are still pretty evenly divided. I accept some Republican loss because that does seem to happen in the dissatisfied sixth year and the polls are perhaps at least that accurate, but I presume Republicans will hold both houses because George W Bush and Karl Rove told me so. And man oh man do I hope it turns out that way. How I would love to be able to tell my Democrat friends that the reason we won is because Dubya is smarter than you are.
...................
Kerry:
Heard this on a clip played by Rush. Think it was Charlie Rose speaking: "Democrats are chomping at the bit to go vote."
My take:
Democrats like Charlie who in one way or another get party perks are chomping at the bit to take power, but I'm not sure absolutely every Democrat is chomping at the bit to go vote for John Kerry. If Bush is the target for those who are chomping, I don't see why Kerry can't be the target for at least some Democrats who are gagging.
(2:15 PM)
..................
Speculations on Joe, Democrat:
Bush is barnstorming; Pelosi, et al. are disappeared. Republican folks have a leader. Democrat "folks" --candidates-- have a leader too, many: Nancy, Harry, Teddy... Democrat Joe, voter, don't. Democrat "folks" take orders. Joe will too, and he won't get his vote back. Nancy, yea hardly knew 'er.
Note, Newt:
On Hannity. Optimistic. "Going out on a limb". He's "joining Karl Rove". Predicts: Repubs hold both houses.
(4:25 PM)
The question at issue is prognostication of the coming election. I start from the presumption that the race will be close because the country is evenly divided. There will not be a wave because there can not be a wave without a reason and the Democrats offer none and the country is in pretty good shape. It is in an ill-mood but that's a media creation of constant carping and blame and is not deep and is not gong to much affect the vote; and pollsters who think party identification has much changed over the last two years have simultaneously been paying too much attention to the media and not enough.
I might note one thing about pollsters. I sure don't like their present results, not merely because they're not on my side but because they violate my sense of the way things really are. But I can't dismiss them, I can't do my own poll.
It's interesting that I can easily dismiss climate warming alarmists because they're discussing something that is rational, the material world obeying knowable laws. I don't have to study very much to know that their certainties are not based on science but on politics. Pollsters are much harder to dismiss, because their subject isn't rational, or at least doesn't obey known or knowable laws. Their subject is the individual voter, taken in composite and then broken down into preference. But who really knows what's really going on in the brain of the individual voter?
I stick now, after a great deal of reading and thought, with what had been my automatic assumption at the very beginning of this consideration on the coming elections, that while media coverage and the political tone has very greatly changed in the last two years, underlying facts and values are about the same and so I assume this election will be about the same as the last, that is, close.
So, how to prognosticate? Republican retention? Or narrow Democrat victory?
For this I finally go to faith, authority, and choice, I can do no other. I simply see no very powerful arguments toward either side. So I chose choice. I will chose my authority, and hope that they're right.
On the one hand you have George Bush and Karl Rove and Ken Melman predicting Republican retention of both houses, and on the other Novak and Barone and Zogby and Barnes predicting narrow control of the house by the Democrats (If you go nut left you get a greater predicted margin).
So who to chose as Authority?
I go with George Bush and Karl Rove, because I consider them smarter than Novak, Barone, Zogby, Barnes... Daschle or Charlie Cook. They actually win elections.
I dismiss all Democrats and MSM. They're nuts.
I dismiss pollsters because I think they're caught up in the same bubble as Democrats and MSM and aren't doing a very good job.
I stick with my basic idea that on serious matters Americans are still pretty evenly divided. I accept some Republican loss because that does seem to happen in the dissatisfied sixth year and the polls are perhaps at least that accurate, but I presume Republicans will hold both houses because George W Bush and Karl Rove told me so. And man oh man do I hope it turns out that way. How I would love to be able to tell my Democrat friends that the reason we won is because Dubya is smarter than you are.
...................
Kerry:
Heard this on a clip played by Rush. Think it was Charlie Rose speaking: "Democrats are chomping at the bit to go vote."
My take:
Democrats like Charlie who in one way or another get party perks are chomping at the bit to take power, but I'm not sure absolutely every Democrat is chomping at the bit to go vote for John Kerry. If Bush is the target for those who are chomping, I don't see why Kerry can't be the target for at least some Democrats who are gagging.
(2:15 PM)
..................
Speculations on Joe, Democrat:
Bush is barnstorming; Pelosi, et al. are disappeared. Republican folks have a leader. Democrat "folks" --candidates-- have a leader too, many: Nancy, Harry, Teddy... Democrat Joe, voter, don't. Democrat "folks" take orders. Joe will too, and he won't get his vote back. Nancy, yea hardly knew 'er.
Note, Newt:
On Hannity. Optimistic. "Going out on a limb". He's "joining Karl Rove". Predicts: Repubs hold both houses.
(4:25 PM)
posted by mouse at 9:27 AM
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