Victory Soon
I've slipped into my habit of writing in my notebook and not making posts, but I'm gong to put down a couple of thoughts and maybe later expand.
--If George Bush wins this election we'll win in Iraq, because he'll have made clear to everyone that he's a lot smarter than those who say Iraq is a disaster.
--All the fundamentals are good for the Republicans. Gas prices, the Dow, the economy in general, and Iraq and the War on Terror. These last two because they're serious matters and George Bush is a serious man and the Democrats aren't.
--This may be the last hurrah for the MSM. They're Democrats and they may lose badly.
--A lot of close district-by-district analysis is out now. This is being done by people with expertise, experience, and information. They see the races tightening... I don't think they see the half of it. They don't because they pay attention to the polls and they've bought into the idea that these races are local. They're not. This is a national election. It's been made national for two years by MSM, and the people in politics' presuming yet that MSM has influence and so presuming they reflect national sentiment (reported or created), presume as well that this "national" attitude will reflect the vote. I think that they're wrong.
--And the polls are wrong because of this complex of presumptions. They presume, for example, that party ID has dropped for Republicans and somewhat risen for Democrats, because that's what their polls show. I think the polls merely reflect the generalized disgust that MSM has managed to create, I don't think they show that deeper individual judgment that will actually be exercised in the vote.
--I presume all these things simply because I don't think insanity can widely influence the American electorate, and the MSM is insane.
--Last note: George Bush has splendid approval ratings. He's been hammered for two years on every imaginable charge and fantasy, yet 38% of the public still approve of his job performance. Those people are gong to vote Republican! Having withstood this onslaught of nonsense they're certainly not going to not vote. Less than 50% of registered voters will vote. That means that of those voting the Republicans will receive at least 78% of votes cast. That is a Tsunami --It is true that in normal years low approval numbers for a President would indicate low approval numbers for his party. I claim something has changed now, and what has changed is MSM, and because they are so obviously partisan, and since their criticism has so obviously been disproportionate and nonsensical, I simply don't think they any longer have influence. I also think that in their bubble, and in the whole bubble of the political professional class, I don't think they see that.
That the MSM is nuts is objective fact. Absolutely the only question is what proportion of Americans will see that fact.
--If George Bush wins this election we'll win in Iraq, because he'll have made clear to everyone that he's a lot smarter than those who say Iraq is a disaster.
--All the fundamentals are good for the Republicans. Gas prices, the Dow, the economy in general, and Iraq and the War on Terror. These last two because they're serious matters and George Bush is a serious man and the Democrats aren't.
--This may be the last hurrah for the MSM. They're Democrats and they may lose badly.
--A lot of close district-by-district analysis is out now. This is being done by people with expertise, experience, and information. They see the races tightening... I don't think they see the half of it. They don't because they pay attention to the polls and they've bought into the idea that these races are local. They're not. This is a national election. It's been made national for two years by MSM, and the people in politics' presuming yet that MSM has influence and so presuming they reflect national sentiment (reported or created), presume as well that this "national" attitude will reflect the vote. I think that they're wrong.
--And the polls are wrong because of this complex of presumptions. They presume, for example, that party ID has dropped for Republicans and somewhat risen for Democrats, because that's what their polls show. I think the polls merely reflect the generalized disgust that MSM has managed to create, I don't think they show that deeper individual judgment that will actually be exercised in the vote.
--I presume all these things simply because I don't think insanity can widely influence the American electorate, and the MSM is insane.
--Last note: George Bush has splendid approval ratings. He's been hammered for two years on every imaginable charge and fantasy, yet 38% of the public still approve of his job performance. Those people are gong to vote Republican! Having withstood this onslaught of nonsense they're certainly not going to not vote. Less than 50% of registered voters will vote. That means that of those voting the Republicans will receive at least 78% of votes cast. That is a Tsunami --It is true that in normal years low approval numbers for a President would indicate low approval numbers for his party. I claim something has changed now, and what has changed is MSM, and because they are so obviously partisan, and since their criticism has so obviously been disproportionate and nonsensical, I simply don't think they any longer have influence. I also think that in their bubble, and in the whole bubble of the political professional class, I don't think they see that.
That the MSM is nuts is objective fact. Absolutely the only question is what proportion of Americans will see that fact.
posted by mouse at 4:24 PM
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