Sunday, October 22, 2006

The Beautiful Girl

She really was a beautiful girl, an utterly lovely girl, and her folks were rich.

This was back in my high school years. Her folks sent to Italy for a specially designed gown she could wear as Home Coming Queen. This was quite some months before there was a Home Coming Queen. People found out about it and she ended up as just an attendant. She was truly a dark haired beauty, but there was a vote, and enough people were offended by her presumption that they went with the blond instead.

The parallels here may not be exact. Nancy Pelosi, for one thing, is not a dark haired beauty, but there certainly is the presumption.

Is it offensive? Will it change votes?

It certainly is offensive, at least to me, but then I'd vote for a dead dog if it were a Republican before I'd vote for a Democrat. So I don't count. But is there some segment of the population who might find this presumption offensive and so let that determine their vote? There is, the very tiny sliver of swing voter who actually does pay attention, who actually does vote, but who makes decisions on matters incidental and only sometimes political. I've heard this stated on one matter for certain, and I've seen it printed. It has to do with the Foley fallout.

I'm not speaking of Evangelicals, I'm speaking of the mid-line voter who found the Democrat's piling on to be offensive.

This is rather odd. The Democrat party is the home of the homosexual, in as much as they have a home at all. Yet Democrats were outraged by Foley, and it was the Democrats who were outraged that Republicans might be closeting other gays. It was the Democrats who would have righteousness: those gays would be outed.

This is really dumb politics, but the Democrats were righteous because those embarrassed were Republicans, and any charge against a Republican is a righteous charge and justified. But not everybody saw it that way. Some of the small sliver of swing-voters-who-vote saw it as disgusting; and some gays who vote Democrat saw it as frightening, and will stay home.

So within this small group Republicans have gained. I have no idea what those numbers would be. But will this excited presumption of victory, this vain self anointment to leadership, be offensive enough to change the vote?

It won't affect the Republicans vote. Republicans know this is an election of the base, the base will vote. But supposedly this will energize the Democrats, a triumphalism; it is fun to vote when you know you're gong to win. I can't argue with that. But how hard are you going to work in the days leading up to that vote when you know the vote is just pro forma before the celebration? Wouldn't it be natural to just wait for the cake and the drinks and the band? Contrast that anticipatory glee against grim, slogging determination. This is the Republican. They know this is a hard fight, they know they must slog on, they know they have to work every day... But it is very close. On election day the parties come home. America is 50-50. It's all in who votes. So how do you call: grim determination, the slog and the grind; or it's-a-party-let's-party...?

Advantage... Republicans. I don't see how I can be proven wrong, unless the middle-voter-swing-voter actually does vote. I do see the possibility for great bitterness in two weeks time. The dark haired beauty will rage.

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