Retrospect on the Israeli Defeat
They fought poorly. That was stunning. I initially thought Hizbollah would be crushed quickly because they only had rifles and a few rockets. When it turned out they had armament considerably beyond that I said: "The die is cast. A nation can not allow itself to be under rocket attack from a terrorist state-within-a-state, and since Lebanon can not control Hizbollah, Israel must do it, and that means investing the entirety of the Bekaa Valley. Hizbollah has to be denied their base, and this is the only way rearmament can be prevented." I considered this a starting point. But it was never attempted. Militarily there was never any meaningful assault on Hizbollah. From the very first day Israel committed itself to defeat... apparently because they did not recognize they had an enemy and did not recognize they had to fight a war. They thought they were going into Gaza, I thought that a serious war was necessary I thought this to be instantly obvious. That this was not recognized I consider an insanity, and I'm wondering if not only the leadership but the entire nation might be insane.
I hold out the possibility that my judgment might be wrong and that there might be some other way to address the threat. I haven't yet heard the argument.
The upshot, among other things, is that Israel is no longer an "ally", whatever that ever did mean. They're not militarily helpful, they're a burden. Should there ever be a "mid-east war" involving the United States they not only could not aid us we would have to defend them. They can't fight anymore, they can just drop bombs. --And their usefulness as an intelligence source is zero. If they were unaware of Hizbollah's armament and fortification right on their own border they certainly have no trustworthy information on Iran. Israel, to the United States, is at best a net zero. They're there, they have six or seven million people, so what?
This is the wage of humiliation, it makes it impossible for anybody to take you seriously.
Things could change. The people could get serious and get a new government and fight a new war... Or it could be that the rot has set in and that they'll never fight again and will all just leave. That seems an extreme statement, no nation simply ever just evaporates. Ha! This more or less is happening to Europe, although rather than disappearing they're just changing color. That can't happen in Israel, but they do have a nearly 2,000 year history of living everywhere but Israel, I don't see why that couldn't happen again.
I have no idea of what the dynamics of pressure against Israel might become, I only know that they're weak and their enemies see that and so are emboldened and the pressure will increase. Smart guys in the Arab and Persian world are now dreaming of ways they can do damage. --Interestingly, I don't know how seriously they really want to destroy that state. Israel is a very useful scapegoat. Get rid of the Jews and the next enemy is the government. Israel might continue to exist by the sufferance of Assad and Mubarak, something to be mauled but not killed.
It's impossible to know and this is all just "scenario", so far out in causal terms that one man's speculation is just as good as another man's fantasy, but I do know that In Arab eyes Israel stands defeated and so is going to face renewed and probably intelligent attacks. Arabs, for as long as I've been paying attention to Israel, have only ever had one powerful weapon, and that was world sympathy. Now they know that given the right conditions they also have the real power to hand Israel defeat in battle. That means things are going to be a mess for awhile.
And if Tehran gets the bomb? I'm convinced now Israel can't pre-empt it. No way they know where to strike. Their intelligence stinks. And what kind of society will Israel have then, knowing that at any moment of any day some madman might blow you off the face of the earth? Do you think you're then going to be able to strike back at some Gaza kid who throws a stone in your face? If Tehran gets the bomb Israel no longer has a society. And Israel can't prevent it.
So I see things as grim. The first positive step would be a new government, because smart people with courage could come up with solutions. But does Israel any longer have such people? --The other possibility might be the European community developing that same intelligence and courage. It should be universal that such organizations as Hizbollah can not be allowed to exist; it should be universal that no gulf state can have the bomb, because with the bomb they control the oil. It's not that simple but it is that basic. There should be unanimity on these things, and if there were the West could protect itself, and Israel into the bargain....
It's hard for me to believe that nations don't see these things...
I hold out the possibility that my judgment might be wrong and that there might be some other way to address the threat. I haven't yet heard the argument.
The upshot, among other things, is that Israel is no longer an "ally", whatever that ever did mean. They're not militarily helpful, they're a burden. Should there ever be a "mid-east war" involving the United States they not only could not aid us we would have to defend them. They can't fight anymore, they can just drop bombs. --And their usefulness as an intelligence source is zero. If they were unaware of Hizbollah's armament and fortification right on their own border they certainly have no trustworthy information on Iran. Israel, to the United States, is at best a net zero. They're there, they have six or seven million people, so what?
This is the wage of humiliation, it makes it impossible for anybody to take you seriously.
Things could change. The people could get serious and get a new government and fight a new war... Or it could be that the rot has set in and that they'll never fight again and will all just leave. That seems an extreme statement, no nation simply ever just evaporates. Ha! This more or less is happening to Europe, although rather than disappearing they're just changing color. That can't happen in Israel, but they do have a nearly 2,000 year history of living everywhere but Israel, I don't see why that couldn't happen again.
I have no idea of what the dynamics of pressure against Israel might become, I only know that they're weak and their enemies see that and so are emboldened and the pressure will increase. Smart guys in the Arab and Persian world are now dreaming of ways they can do damage. --Interestingly, I don't know how seriously they really want to destroy that state. Israel is a very useful scapegoat. Get rid of the Jews and the next enemy is the government. Israel might continue to exist by the sufferance of Assad and Mubarak, something to be mauled but not killed.
It's impossible to know and this is all just "scenario", so far out in causal terms that one man's speculation is just as good as another man's fantasy, but I do know that In Arab eyes Israel stands defeated and so is going to face renewed and probably intelligent attacks. Arabs, for as long as I've been paying attention to Israel, have only ever had one powerful weapon, and that was world sympathy. Now they know that given the right conditions they also have the real power to hand Israel defeat in battle. That means things are going to be a mess for awhile.
And if Tehran gets the bomb? I'm convinced now Israel can't pre-empt it. No way they know where to strike. Their intelligence stinks. And what kind of society will Israel have then, knowing that at any moment of any day some madman might blow you off the face of the earth? Do you think you're then going to be able to strike back at some Gaza kid who throws a stone in your face? If Tehran gets the bomb Israel no longer has a society. And Israel can't prevent it.
So I see things as grim. The first positive step would be a new government, because smart people with courage could come up with solutions. But does Israel any longer have such people? --The other possibility might be the European community developing that same intelligence and courage. It should be universal that such organizations as Hizbollah can not be allowed to exist; it should be universal that no gulf state can have the bomb, because with the bomb they control the oil. It's not that simple but it is that basic. There should be unanimity on these things, and if there were the West could protect itself, and Israel into the bargain....
It's hard for me to believe that nations don't see these things...
posted by mouse at 11:55 PM
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