Discouragement

No post yesterday and only a short one tonight. Possibly tomorrow I will expand a little. I have made entries in my journal... but I think I'm going to have to give up my fantasy and pretense that the Israelis know what they're doing.

At this juncture in this very large war Israel is led by a vilely incompetent man. "Israel has already won the war", so says Olmert, PM. At least this is so stated in an article by Caroline Glick, whom I don't know but who does seem bright. In my opinion the man who can assert victory at this moment of clear defeat should be removed. (This last sentence has been rewritten in what I call a "tone down".)

But I do yet see some hope. Mutiny. Discreet mutiny. It is possible that there are military men who, within the limits of the resources given them, are doing more than I've read. It is possible that more has been gained militarily than I know.

And there is one other hope. Israel does have one leader who is a warrior, George W. Bush. The cease fire agreement he's crafted with the French has been structured such that there can be no ceasefire unless Hizbollah is defeated, since there can be no ceasefire unless Hizbollah withdraws while Israel remains. So there is time, so it could happen. The military can fight on. They need only fight Hizbollah, and discreetly, their own government.

I include several paragraphs from the excellent Caroline Glick article. She's commenting on the ceasefire resolution. Note that compared to her analysis my pessimism is boyant. I at least presume the ceasefire will fail, and I hold out hope that the military will fairly recognize its enemy, and do battle in each case as is appropriate.

Whatever marginal diplomatic gains the Olmert government may try to convince the public the draft resolution contains for Israel, the fact is that regardless of the language eventually adopted, and whatever force of French, Egyptian, Turkish, Italian and German soldiers will or will not be deployed to Lebanon, all any cease-fire resolution will do is ensure that there will be another round of war.
This is the case because none of the moves being considered involve the one action that would prevent the next war. That action is an Israeli victory against Hizbullah in Lebanon, and an Israeli and allied strike against Hizbullah's state sponsors Syria and Iran, which promote Hizbullah's wanton aggression against Israel as a central campaign in their global jihad aimed at annihilating the Jewish state and defeating Western civilization
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In the hours that followed Hizbullah's massive missile barrage against Israel Sunday, which left 15 dead and more than 150 wounded, many voices expressed the hope and expectation that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the IDF General Staff would finally approve a military campaign aimed at destroying Hizbullah's capacity to attack Israel. It was anticipated that they would finally authorize the IDF's plan to advance ground forces to the Litani River and take the necessary measures in Tyre, Sidon and other cities to wipe out Hizbullah's capacity to launch missiles against Israel.

But Olmert would have none of it. In the aftermath of the carnage in Kfar Giladi and Haifa, he continued to maintain that Israel had already won the war, and that the best way to end the conflict was to accept a Security Council resolution that would enable Hizbullah - the advance guard of the Iranian army of jihad - not only to survive as a fighting force, but to declare victory against Israel.