Superduper Bowl
Super Bowl. Seattle or Pittsburgh? I can't knowledgeably compare personnel. I expect the conventional wisdom would be that whoever gets to the quarterback will win. I don't think either team is going to get to the quarter back particularly well, and that's because I see both teams as psychologically solid. Neither is going to collapse, both believe they belong there, both will play near their peak, it will be the hardest fought Super Bowl ever.
Sam Alitio? This is less certain because the teams are less certain. I'm a little more certain about the 12th man. I think the 12th man wants him confirmed.
Of course, each team has its supporters but I think this time the stadium is Republican, and I think this is the first time the Republicans believe they belong here, and are ready to win, even if they have to bite and claw to do it.
This is uncertain. The Democrats have enough votes for a filibuster. The Republicans have enough votes for the nuclear option. Which has the most guts? Always it's been the Democrats. Has it changed?
This is a very big fight. I am absolutely certain the Democrats will threaten filibuster. But nobody starts a fight they know they can't win. They'll threaten, if they see any Republican quaking, they'll filibuster, and they will believe they will win. This is the way of Washington: if it's guts, the Democrats win. Republicans got no guts.
But I'm not sure this time. They've already gotten Roberts. That helps. They got rid of Harriet. That helps. And no one got to Alito. That helps, and it would be enough to make a man mad if they now tried to get to him through the filibuster...
It does seem to me, just in terms of psychological dynamics, that Republicans might finally be getting a little fed up. Political calculations aren't everything (though I see those calculations tipping the Republican way). Sometimes a little contempt for your opponent might be all you need to get your back up enough to really stomp him good, and I think that time might (finally) be now.
Super Bowl: Seattle 20 -- Pittsburgh 17.
Superduper Bowl:
Filibuster, Nuclear Option, Confirmation: Alito 57 -- Teddy...kerplunk.
Note: This call is not an analysis, it's my felt sense of where we are, my "political instinct". I can't believe the Democrats won't filibuster because I can't believe they yet believe they can lose; and I believe they will lose because I can't believe the Republicans aren't finally fed up with their foot stomping nonsense. Or rather, I think the Republicans may finally recognize that the Democrat's "power" is just foot stomping. Whatever, it's going to be fun. (I note too, that I seem to have referenced two rather different kinds of stomping).
Sam Alitio? This is less certain because the teams are less certain. I'm a little more certain about the 12th man. I think the 12th man wants him confirmed.
Of course, each team has its supporters but I think this time the stadium is Republican, and I think this is the first time the Republicans believe they belong here, and are ready to win, even if they have to bite and claw to do it.
This is uncertain. The Democrats have enough votes for a filibuster. The Republicans have enough votes for the nuclear option. Which has the most guts? Always it's been the Democrats. Has it changed?
This is a very big fight. I am absolutely certain the Democrats will threaten filibuster. But nobody starts a fight they know they can't win. They'll threaten, if they see any Republican quaking, they'll filibuster, and they will believe they will win. This is the way of Washington: if it's guts, the Democrats win. Republicans got no guts.
But I'm not sure this time. They've already gotten Roberts. That helps. They got rid of Harriet. That helps. And no one got to Alito. That helps, and it would be enough to make a man mad if they now tried to get to him through the filibuster...
It does seem to me, just in terms of psychological dynamics, that Republicans might finally be getting a little fed up. Political calculations aren't everything (though I see those calculations tipping the Republican way). Sometimes a little contempt for your opponent might be all you need to get your back up enough to really stomp him good, and I think that time might (finally) be now.
Super Bowl: Seattle 20 -- Pittsburgh 17.
Superduper Bowl:
Filibuster, Nuclear Option, Confirmation: Alito 57 -- Teddy...kerplunk.
Note: This call is not an analysis, it's my felt sense of where we are, my "political instinct". I can't believe the Democrats won't filibuster because I can't believe they yet believe they can lose; and I believe they will lose because I can't believe the Republicans aren't finally fed up with their foot stomping nonsense. Or rather, I think the Republicans may finally recognize that the Democrat's "power" is just foot stomping. Whatever, it's going to be fun. (I note too, that I seem to have referenced two rather different kinds of stomping).
posted by mouse at 12:50 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home