Will, Strategy, Time
Read most of the basic stuff so far in the news. The Israelis are probing on the ground. That's all I ask. What their plan is I can't know, my only concern was that they have the will to use ground forces and it seems that they do. That they would not, under attack as they are, would have been astonishing. I only had that worry that one bad morning when I feared their government was controlled by peace nuts.
In purely military terms it seems possible that all Hizbollah's fortified positions --the bunkers and the tunnels and maybe preset ambush sites-- are all near the border. It seems possible that Israel intends merely to get behind them, leave them in place, and continue up the Bekaa Valley. Hizbollah would be left free to still fire off their rockets, but Israel would be free to move deeper into the valley and capture their deeper stores, interdict supplies, and destroy their longer range missiles. The defense around those sites would not be great presuming the best fighters are on the front line, anticipating an Israeli frontal assault and geared up to create a body count. If they pull those fighters the bunkers are left undefended, and how much mobility will they have anyway in trying to catch up to the Israelis?
This is the purest speculation. It would only be good military strategy if it's something Hizbollah didn't anticipate. But they're a small force, they would have had to make choices. If they're raining down missiles it would be reasonable for them to assume that Israel would not put up with that and would attack with full force, into what Hizbollah had made a defensive line. But what if Israel says, "So what? You've already insulted us with your first strike, but other than for the terror and the insult, you really can't hurt us much. We're going to ignore your flailing fists, and instead strike for the heart."
Pure speculation, but it's possible. The idea would be that Israel has air cover and mobility (and thus logistics). Hizbollah has neither. They're not even any longer a guerilla force, they've made themselves heavy with all their rockets. They can either abandon their rockets, or abandon the central valley, they can't defend both.
Possibly. If Hizbollah does move they're targets; and if they move their six years of building bunkers is wasted. We'll see. Would Syria intervene? That would make a central valley drive difficult. Doubtful. Israel has the US to the east. If Syria moves the US bombs (I've been hoping for that for three years anyway). I think Syria will sit tight.
Time? Condi has been good the last few days. A cease fire now would be a "false hope" is about how I think she expressed it. So Israel has time. And I think if it begins to look like Israel does have a real chance of totally destroying Hizbollah I don't think the complaints of the West are going to be that forceful. You've got to be a nut to be a citizen of the West and not want to see Hizbollah destroyed. If Israel is making real progress I think she'll have all the time she needs.
Pure speculation.
UPDATE...sort of:
I've been emailing with a friend, mostly on Gaza, who speaks more sweetly of Hammas than do I. I decided to give the Gazillians a break and instead wrote on Lebanon. It's just a note, but it fills out the above post just a bit.
Dear #!$$!!,
I think we've established that you think there are nice people in Gaza.
More interesting just now is Lebanon. It looks possible that Israel, despite its many statements that it intends only a limited incursion, might in fact go up the Bekaa Valley all the way to Baalbec. That would sever Lebanon from Syria. It would also separate Hizbollah from Syria, which would mean no resupply, which would mean they could be destroyed, which would mean the Lebanese people could have a true democracy free of the guns of Hizbollian thugs.
This would be excellent. It's always been understood that Hizbollah is the only political party in Lebanon that packs heat, and that thus they have distorted the government as one that is truly free. Recognizing now how much armament they have --a surprise to everyone-- it becomes clear that it was only a matter of time before they became the government; a Taliban style polity in the land that not that many years ago had been called "the Paris of the East". It looks like it might be Israel that brings Lebanon back to Paris.
Of course this is war, and there can be bad turns in war that no one can predict. The government as it exists could collapse; or Hizbollah might decide that rather than lose everything they might as well turn their guns on Beirut tomorrow; or they might so bloody Israel in the valley that Israel decides it's not worth the cost to continue; or Israel might not have this in mind at all. As splendid as this speculation is --in terms of the good effects it would have-- it is just speculation. What Israel has actually said is only that they plan a limited incursion, depending...
It is interesting though, that Israel, hated throughout most of the world, might nevertheless be given all the time it needs, to do whatever she decides. That's because most of the world that hates Israel sees Hizbollah as worse. That's because Hizbollah is not merely a terrorist organization, it's a terrorist state-within-a-state, and no state can tolerate that as precedent. Even the states that back Hizbollah, Syria and Iran, wouldn't want Hizbollah as strongly in their own land as it is in Lebanon. So while there will be calls for a cease fire, and much criticism leveled at Israel, in fact not much pressure will develop for them to quit. The only ones who really want a ceasefire, and thus a Hizbollah victory, are a few nut regimes, and people and groups who have no responsibility for governance: Kofi Annan, the UN, Academics, Main Stream Media, leftists, Palestinians, and anybody who would prefer slavery for Lebanon rather than victory for Israel.
....Did a run earlier today. I'm still having trouble with the tiny tendon that popped in my right knee five months ago, but I find that if I run slowly I can run far, and it doesn't much bother the knee. When I finish I feel wholesome and strong. It occurs to me that this may be why I keep running; the sensation of health and strength is one of life's pleasures, and I might as well continue the pleasure as long as I can.
(And I kept the last paragraph because I may sometime blog about running).
In purely military terms it seems possible that all Hizbollah's fortified positions --the bunkers and the tunnels and maybe preset ambush sites-- are all near the border. It seems possible that Israel intends merely to get behind them, leave them in place, and continue up the Bekaa Valley. Hizbollah would be left free to still fire off their rockets, but Israel would be free to move deeper into the valley and capture their deeper stores, interdict supplies, and destroy their longer range missiles. The defense around those sites would not be great presuming the best fighters are on the front line, anticipating an Israeli frontal assault and geared up to create a body count. If they pull those fighters the bunkers are left undefended, and how much mobility will they have anyway in trying to catch up to the Israelis?
This is the purest speculation. It would only be good military strategy if it's something Hizbollah didn't anticipate. But they're a small force, they would have had to make choices. If they're raining down missiles it would be reasonable for them to assume that Israel would not put up with that and would attack with full force, into what Hizbollah had made a defensive line. But what if Israel says, "So what? You've already insulted us with your first strike, but other than for the terror and the insult, you really can't hurt us much. We're going to ignore your flailing fists, and instead strike for the heart."
Pure speculation, but it's possible. The idea would be that Israel has air cover and mobility (and thus logistics). Hizbollah has neither. They're not even any longer a guerilla force, they've made themselves heavy with all their rockets. They can either abandon their rockets, or abandon the central valley, they can't defend both.
Possibly. If Hizbollah does move they're targets; and if they move their six years of building bunkers is wasted. We'll see. Would Syria intervene? That would make a central valley drive difficult. Doubtful. Israel has the US to the east. If Syria moves the US bombs (I've been hoping for that for three years anyway). I think Syria will sit tight.
Time? Condi has been good the last few days. A cease fire now would be a "false hope" is about how I think she expressed it. So Israel has time. And I think if it begins to look like Israel does have a real chance of totally destroying Hizbollah I don't think the complaints of the West are going to be that forceful. You've got to be a nut to be a citizen of the West and not want to see Hizbollah destroyed. If Israel is making real progress I think she'll have all the time she needs.
Pure speculation.
UPDATE...sort of:
I've been emailing with a friend, mostly on Gaza, who speaks more sweetly of Hammas than do I. I decided to give the Gazillians a break and instead wrote on Lebanon. It's just a note, but it fills out the above post just a bit.
Dear #!$$!!,
I think we've established that you think there are nice people in Gaza.
More interesting just now is Lebanon. It looks possible that Israel, despite its many statements that it intends only a limited incursion, might in fact go up the Bekaa Valley all the way to Baalbec. That would sever Lebanon from Syria. It would also separate Hizbollah from Syria, which would mean no resupply, which would mean they could be destroyed, which would mean the Lebanese people could have a true democracy free of the guns of Hizbollian thugs.
This would be excellent. It's always been understood that Hizbollah is the only political party in Lebanon that packs heat, and that thus they have distorted the government as one that is truly free. Recognizing now how much armament they have --a surprise to everyone-- it becomes clear that it was only a matter of time before they became the government; a Taliban style polity in the land that not that many years ago had been called "the Paris of the East". It looks like it might be Israel that brings Lebanon back to Paris.
Of course this is war, and there can be bad turns in war that no one can predict. The government as it exists could collapse; or Hizbollah might decide that rather than lose everything they might as well turn their guns on Beirut tomorrow; or they might so bloody Israel in the valley that Israel decides it's not worth the cost to continue; or Israel might not have this in mind at all. As splendid as this speculation is --in terms of the good effects it would have-- it is just speculation. What Israel has actually said is only that they plan a limited incursion, depending...
It is interesting though, that Israel, hated throughout most of the world, might nevertheless be given all the time it needs, to do whatever she decides. That's because most of the world that hates Israel sees Hizbollah as worse. That's because Hizbollah is not merely a terrorist organization, it's a terrorist state-within-a-state, and no state can tolerate that as precedent. Even the states that back Hizbollah, Syria and Iran, wouldn't want Hizbollah as strongly in their own land as it is in Lebanon. So while there will be calls for a cease fire, and much criticism leveled at Israel, in fact not much pressure will develop for them to quit. The only ones who really want a ceasefire, and thus a Hizbollah victory, are a few nut regimes, and people and groups who have no responsibility for governance: Kofi Annan, the UN, Academics, Main Stream Media, leftists, Palestinians, and anybody who would prefer slavery for Lebanon rather than victory for Israel.
....Did a run earlier today. I'm still having trouble with the tiny tendon that popped in my right knee five months ago, but I find that if I run slowly I can run far, and it doesn't much bother the knee. When I finish I feel wholesome and strong. It occurs to me that this may be why I keep running; the sensation of health and strength is one of life's pleasures, and I might as well continue the pleasure as long as I can.
(And I kept the last paragraph because I may sometime blog about running).
posted by mouse at 2:55 PM
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