Bye Bye Stealth
We're not in a fair fight. The Democrats are going to lose this one. The "grand tragedy", such as it is, will move inexorably to it's foreordained end. It's merely a matter of watching the trapped beast as it flails and fights and cowers against inevitable doom. The Dems are going to lose a vote.
This is nearly certain. Republicans, because of the dynamisms post Miers, are going to be solid. The base is energized by triumph, and the prima donnas now recognize that the enraged base has teeth; and to the week kneed, the timorous (Bill Frist) that rage of the base gives strength. This may be a case where it's to the advantage of every Republican to support their President. It's possible that the Republican vote could be unanimous.
With the Democrats the pure political calculus is more complex. Every Democrat faces Moveon.Org & ilk, but 5, in red states, now face a snarling, nasty, energized base that bites. This has got to get their attention, especially as it's now clear that this is an energy that can lie latent for years just waiting for the moment of eruption. And for 6 others in liberal states there's the very different but touchy problem of touchy Italians, who might be offended if one of their own were attacked too harshly... I'm not sure this is important but Michael Barone thinks it's important ("Why Democrats won't want to oppose Samuel Alito": www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/home.htm). Whatever, it will be an interesting subdynamic.
And then there's principle.
This man is a known conservative! And if a known conservative can get on the bench, then other known conservatives can get on the bench, and then what has happened to the stealth nominee? My God, thereafter, people with records, people who could pretty much be expected to be after their nominations what the had been before, these people...could get on the bench! That would mean that if Republican presidents nominated 7 justices, there probably would be...7 conservative justices on the court!
So this is a big fight. An established and known and large conservative can not be allowed on the bench, it would change the course of history...
But, a known and large and established conservative will make it to the bench, and it will change the course of history.
This is nearly certain. Republicans, because of the dynamisms post Miers, are going to be solid. The base is energized by triumph, and the prima donnas now recognize that the enraged base has teeth; and to the week kneed, the timorous (Bill Frist) that rage of the base gives strength. This may be a case where it's to the advantage of every Republican to support their President. It's possible that the Republican vote could be unanimous.
With the Democrats the pure political calculus is more complex. Every Democrat faces Moveon.Org & ilk, but 5, in red states, now face a snarling, nasty, energized base that bites. This has got to get their attention, especially as it's now clear that this is an energy that can lie latent for years just waiting for the moment of eruption. And for 6 others in liberal states there's the very different but touchy problem of touchy Italians, who might be offended if one of their own were attacked too harshly... I'm not sure this is important but Michael Barone thinks it's important ("Why Democrats won't want to oppose Samuel Alito": www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/home.htm). Whatever, it will be an interesting subdynamic.
And then there's principle.
This man is a known conservative! And if a known conservative can get on the bench, then other known conservatives can get on the bench, and then what has happened to the stealth nominee? My God, thereafter, people with records, people who could pretty much be expected to be after their nominations what the had been before, these people...could get on the bench! That would mean that if Republican presidents nominated 7 justices, there probably would be...7 conservative justices on the court!
So this is a big fight. An established and known and large conservative can not be allowed on the bench, it would change the course of history...
But, a known and large and established conservative will make it to the bench, and it will change the course of history.
posted by mouse at 2:33 AM
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